La première étape est primordiale. Il s’agit d’évaluer votre situation personnelle pour définir votre profil d’investisseur. En théorie, plus vous êtes jeune, plus vous pouvez vous permettre d’être audacieux. Vos objectifs de vie ainsi que votre tolérance au risque jouent aussi un rôle important dans vos choix d’investissements. Voici les questions auxquelles vous devrez répondre pour établir votre profil:
“The stock market moves in a seasonal cycle that is derived from a calendar that is computed from the orbits of the Earth and the sun,” said Bill Sarubbi (aka Bill Meridian), who uses astrology in his market forecasts as president of predictive analytics-focused Cycles Research Investments, LLC. (His predictions go out to 8,000 subscribers at a cost of $215 per year.) “By adding other relevant cycles such as that of the planet Mars, one will increase their odds of success in market predictions.”
The 1929 crash brought the Roaring Twenties to a halt.[35] As tentatively expressed by economic historian Charles P. Kindleberger, in 1929, there was no lender of last resort effectively present, which, if it had existed and been properly exercised, would have been key in shortening the business slowdown that normally follows financial crises.[32] The crash marked the beginning of widespread and long-lasting consequences for the United States. Historians still debate the question: did the 1929 Crash spark The Great Depression,[36] or did it merely coincide with the bursting of a loose credit-inspired economic bubble? Only 16% of American households were invested in the stock market within the United States during the period leading up to the depression, suggesting that the crash carried somewhat less of a weight in causing the depression.
* The Fed raised the interest rate by a paltry 0.25% in Dec 2015, but they are already having second thoughts. People are even talking about cutting the interest rate back to 0% or even lower into Negative Interest Rates (“NIRP”). Whatever it takes to keep the illusion alive. So don’t underestimate the madness of the banksters. But more financial engineering will only: A) postpone the time of the inevitable crash, and B) make the crash harder and more devastating for the economy.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Jones is widely credited with predicting, and profiting, from the stock-market crash on Oct. 19, 1987, which saw the Dow lose nearly 23% of its value, marking the largest one-day percentage decline for the blue-chip benchmark in its history. Jones founded Tudor in 1980 and became known for trading everything from currencies to commodities. His record has featured middling returns and an exodus of billions from his hedge fund in more recent years. According to a Forbes list of billionaires, Jones boasts a net worth of $4.7 billion


A 'soft' EMH has emerged which does not require that prices remain at or near equilibrium, but only that market participants not be able to systematically profit from any momentary market 'inefficiencies'. Moreover, while EMH predicts that all price movement (in the absence of change in fundamental information) is random (i.e., non-trending), many studies have shown a marked tendency for the stock market to trend over time periods of weeks or longer. Various explanations for such large and apparently non-random price movements have been promulgated. For instance, some research has shown that changes in estimated risk, and the use of certain strategies, such as stop-loss limits and value at risk limits, theoretically could cause financial markets to overreact. But the best explanation seems to be that the distribution of stock market prices is non-Gaussian[57] (in which case EMH, in any of its current forms, would not be strictly applicable).[58][59]


Set forth below are links to eight Guest Blog Entries on the Valuation-Informed Indexing strategy: 1) Is Buy-and-Hold Just a Marketing Gimmick? (this is actually a thread-starter at the Early Retirement Extreme Forum); 2) Risk Revisited (this is actually a thread-starter at the Early Retirement Extreme Forum); 3) Don't Give Up on Stocks, Give Up on Buy-and-Hold, at The Daily Middle; 4) It's Impossible to Plan a Retirement Without Looking at Valuations, at Financial Uproar; 5)…
After a one-day recovery on October 30, where the Dow regained an additional 28.40 points, or 12 percent, to close at 258.47, the market continued to fall, arriving at an interim bottom on November 13, 1929, with the Dow closing at 198.60. The market then recovered for several months, starting on November 14, with the Dow gaining 18.59 points to close at 217.28, and reaching a secondary closing peak (i.e., bear market rally) of 294.07 on April 17, 1930. The following year, the Dow embarked on another, much longer, steady slide from April 1931 to July 8, 1932, when it closed at 41.22—its lowest level of the 20th century, concluding an 89 percent loss rate for all of the market's stocks.
Set forth below is the text of a comment that I put yesterday to a thread on Valuation-Informed Indexing at the My Personal Finance Journey site. The blog entry was posted some time ago. I only discovered the most recent posts by Carlyle (to which my post responded) yesterday. I would say is that the notion that Buy-and-Hold had anything to do with the economic downturn is beyond ridiculous. You speak for many with these words, Carlyle. I wish that one of those who feel this way would try…

Markets started off looking firm this morning but by mid afternoon the Heng Seng Index broke below the key psychological 30,000 level as trade war concerns once again reared its ugly head. First came the Trump administration announcing a further $50b worth of tariffs on China imports followed by return fire from China threatening reciprocal tariffs on 106 U.S. product.
Your thoughts are profound and most of them very well corresponds with the warnings of the Muslim saints and seers. You do not sound like” a religious maniac” at all and I think most of what you have foretold in your(Latest World Predictions for 2017) will God-willing come to pass. All of us as members of the same human family, have a duty to pray for peace, unity and happiness for the entire suffering humanity. All acts violence against innocent people across the globe ought to be condemned.

Research at the New England Complex Systems Institute has found warning signs of crashes using new statistical analysis tools of complexity theory. This work suggests that the panics that lead to crashes come from increased mimicry in the market. A dramatic increase in market mimicry occurred during the whole year before each market crash of the past 25 years, including the recent financial crisis. When investors closely follow each other's cues, it is easier for panic to take hold and affect the market. This work is a mathematical demonstration of a significant advance warning sign of impending market crashes.[19][20]
Or it may not be. Think about it. Doomsayers have pointed to any number of reasons in recent years why they believed the market was headed for a downturn: Standard & Poor's downgrading of U.S. Treasury debt in 2011; the growth-slowdown scare in China that sent stock prices down 12% in the summer of 2015; Brexit and the election of Donald Trump, both of which were supposed to be catalysts for a market rout. But none of these warnings panned out.
Mercury will rise in the West on 9th. This will help the traders having some relief. Business sentiments will improve and there will be visible overall sense of security. Jupiter will enter Scorpio sign on 11th and will bring hope & optimism in the market. Stocks of textiles, Cotton and Bullions will see an upsurge in demand. Indices will start moving Northwards on almost daily basis. Exports order will boost the economy and Rupee s value against Dollar will also improve. Buying interests will be further fuelled by the entry of Mercury in Scorpio sign and conjoining Jupiter on 26th. To increase the demand in Gold, the Bullion dealers will offer many new schemes to attract the customers. Stocks of wool, textiles and health/ fitness related companies will rise. (e.g. Talwalkars, Monte Carlo, Lovable, Kitex & Trident etc).
I have watched Dr Who since I was A child, this is the first series I have missed in all these years. I switched off after episode 2 as that was enough for me, now I choose an episode from either the BBC I player or Netflix to watch on a Sunday night, for as long as this Doctor and Chris Chidwell are involved I will not watch this programme nothing against Jodie Whittaker and her co-stars but the BBC have destroyed the programme.
On October 31, Halloween, children and adults alike enjoy playing with the frightful themes of death surrounding the feast’s mixture of Christian All Saints’ Day and Celtic pagan origins. But, in 2017, if you are one of millions of people who have investments, here’s something all too real and scary to rob you of your sleep. This Warren Buffett Indicator predicts a stock market crash in 2018.
Blind optimism over the tax cuts have led Wall Street analysts to produce a 2019 forward earnings estimate that's 46% greater than the most recent 12-month operating earnings for the S&P 500, he said. "The combination of extreme valuations and extreme earnings expectations creates a situation that's ripe for disappointment," wrote Hussman in a recent blog post on his company site.
Sur 10 ans, 5000$ d’épargnes par an à 4% de rendement donne 62,000$ et à 8% 78,000$… c’est loin d’être life changing! Mais déjà pour obtenir 8% il faudra probablement prendre plus de risques donc le risque faire un rendement négatif, de perdre de l’argent etc. Car plus on veut du rendement, plus il faut s’attendre à voir de la volatilité dans notre portefeuille.
“The kingdom affirms its total rejection of any threats and attempts to undermine it, whether by threatening to impose economic sanctions, using political pressures or repeating false accusations,” the government said  in a statement released to Saudi media. “The Kingdom also affirms that if it receives any action, it will respond with greater action.”
Je te donne entièrement raison, les deux principaux facteurs d’enrichissement sont le taux d’épargne et le temps (en tout cas dans mon cas). Les jeunes qui comprennent ceci sont nettement avantagés financièrement. Alors que leurs amis du même âge achètent des voitures neuves, des condos, des électros à crédit et une mutlitude de bébelles inutiles, ils font travailler leur argent. Avec le temps, les intérêts composés font toute la différence. Ce qui est primordial est d’investir ses épargnes. Que ce soit en bourse, dans l’immobilier ou dans son entreprise, il faut que l’argent travaille.
Memes, Recess, and Depression: A Short History Lesson 1928 Republicans take control of the Presidency, the House and the Senate. Followed shortly by the Great Depression, massive unemployment and a Stock Market crash. 2000 Republicans take control of the Presidency, the House and the Senate. Followed shortly by two recessions including the Great Recession, massive unemployment and a Stock Market crash. 2016 Republicans take control of the Presidency, the House and the Senate. Anyone want to guess what happens next? Somehow OD missed Reagan in the 1980s and his near 5% average GDP economic increase during his 8 years in office. Reagan was following Carter's disastrous economic recession, >12% inflation, >7% unemployment presidency. Obama's economic record is debatable w/ a <3% GPD increase all 8 years. Yesterday, the Dow closed at an all time high due to a projected Trump presidency. Just trying to help, I know you wouldn't want incomplete economic data & facts. (MW) I'll give OD credit for trying to educate people on nearly 90 years of conservative government economic policy in a meme.
I’ve had many dreams that feel prophetic, then come true, for example I dreamed back in 1992 that I was like a giant standing in the ocean knee deep facing Clinton (who was the president then and he was also giant) in front of the Asian nations, he picked up a pair of scissors and cut out one of the countries, I think it was Iraq. He cut the country out right along it’s borders and easily threw it into the ocean, when he did I saw women with coverings on their faces and children screaming and falling in. I believe that came true 🙁

Statistics show that in recent decades, shares have made up an increasingly large proportion of households' financial assets in many countries. In the 1970s, in Sweden, deposit accounts and other very liquid assets with little risk made up almost 60 percent of households' financial wealth, compared to less than 20 percent in the 2000s. The major part of this adjustment is that financial portfolios have gone directly to shares but a good deal now takes the form of various kinds of institutional investment for groups of individuals, e.g., pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds, insurance investment of premiums, etc.
Le fonds Fidelity Special Situations est composé de 54% d’actions canadiennes et 40% d’actions américaines de petites et moyennes capitalisations (petites et moyennes entreprises qui versent généralement peu de dividendes ou aucun). À mon avis, c’est risqué compte tenu de votre âge. Il faudrait constituer un portefeuille équilibré contenant 40-50% d’actions et 50-60% d’obligations. Le rendement réaliste et prudent à long terme est 5%. Souvenez-vous de la règle de Buffett : ne pas perdre votre capital. Le fonds Fidelity Special Situations pourrait être approprié pour un investisseur qui a un horizon de placement à long terme (plus de 10 ans).
And just when you think that this may all be a bunch of bul…h…t. A free energy inventer gets a phone call from a Tv morning show, calling him raising hell on his ass telling him, that he needs to buy up all the free energy electrical devices now, the free energy inventor declines his offer, Host hangs up on him pissed and then calls him back asking him nicely if he could allow him to send him a truck to empty his entire store inventory, the owner declines. Store owner inventor is told by said talk show host, that the elites are getting everything in place to plug the plug. Its obvious that its a planned calapse. The inventor tells us that we will be needing electicity to power up devices, because he was told that the grid will go down, and obvious planned EMP ATTACK on all our major cites, “planned” it seems.

For the rest of the 1930s, beginning on March 15, 1933, the Dow began to slowly regain the ground it had lost during the 1929 crash and the three years following it. The largest percentage increases of the Dow Jones occurred during the early and mid-1930s. In late 1937, there was a sharp dip in the stock market, but prices held well above the 1932 lows. The market would not return to the peak closing of September 3, 1929, until November 23, 1954.[17][18]
Le 7 mai 2010, il aurait initialement proposé à la vente des contrats à terme E-mini S&P (en) sur le Chicago Mercantile Exchange pour une valeur d’environ 200 millions de dollars. En quelques minutes, il aurait modifié ou remplacé ses ordres 19 000 fois avant de les annuler15. Entretemps, il aurait placé à lui seul 62 000 de ces contrats, soit 3,5 milliards de dollars16. Pour la CFTC, Sarao était « au moins responsable de façon significative du déséquilibre des offres » à l’origine du Flash Crash.
Venus will enter Virgo sign on 1st and will remain under the aspect of Saturn. Silver, Cine, Media, IT and Jewellery sector stocks will be in demand. Retrograde Mercury will set in the West and thereby will give Bullish impact on the stocks of FMCG, Silver, Cotton, Banking and Insurance sector stocks. ITC, Marico, Britannia, MMTC, State Bank of India and Yes bank are likely to be the beneficiaries. Sun will enter Leo sign on 17th and will be under the aspect of Mars. The demand of Gold and Silver will start increasing and thereby will bring smile on the lips of the Bulls. The stocks of Red chillies, Tobacco and Herbal plants will also see upsurge in demand. The stocks of ITC, Kaveri seeds, Vinati organics and Zuari agri will rise. The rates of vegetable oils will rise, whereas Butter will decline. The Bulls will hesitate to participate wholeheartedly in the stock market
Il y a tellement de fausses croyances par rapport au courtage en ligne. Un peu à l’image du marché immobilier, on dit que c’est extrêmement risqué d’acheter une maison sans courtier immobilier. À mon avis, une fois bien informé, on peut tout faire soi-même et épargner des milliers de dollars. Il suffit d’y aller progressivement en respectant sa zone de confort.
The sandpile study was introduced in a 1987 paper by Per Bak, Chao Tang and Kurt Wiesenfeld, three scientists working at the Physics Department at the Brookhaven National Laboratory. Ironically, the paper was presented to Physical Review Letters a few months before the stock market crash of October 1987, still today the largest ever one-day drop. The title was "Self-Organized Criticality" and falls within a branch of mathematics known as Complexity Theory, which studies how systems can organize themselves into unexpected behaviors arising from the interaction of its smallest and seemingly independent components.
"This is a most fascinating book about an intriguing but also a controversial topic. It is written by an expert in a very straightforward style and is illustrated by many clear figures. Why Stock Markets Crash will surely raise scientific interest in the emerging new field of econophysics."--Cars H. Hommes, Director of the Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance, University of Amsterdam

Set forth below are links to eight Guest Blog Entries that I have written on the Valuation-Informed Indexing investing strategy or that others have written commenting on it. 1) A Better Approach to Investing, by Michael Harr, at Wealth Uncomplicated. 2) Talk Back to the Investing Experts, at Save Buy Live. 3) The Bankers Did Not Do This to Us, at Weakonomics. 4) Passive Investing Is a Strategy for Extremists, at Money and Such. 5) Passive Investing Is for Extremists: The…
Many astrologers like to characterize their method of reading a horoscope as "holistic", in an effort to escape criticisms from mechanistically-oriented skeptics. I prefer to think of chart analysis in terms of Boolean logic, where multiple factors must be present for a particular situation to occur. For example, we cannot expect stocks to inevitably rise when benefic Jupiter conjoins the natal Sun of the chart we are working with. Such a favourable pattern may be thought of as a necessary, but not sufficient condition for price increases. There must also be an absence of negative factors hitting the key chart points. These would include few close aspects from malefic planets, no planets transiting malefic houses (6th, 8th, 12th) and so on. Given the large number of variables every chart contains, there will be several significant operating planetary contacts and influences at any given time. These must all be evaluated for their relative effects of prices according to the principles of Boolean analysis. If we are trying to assess if the conditions are in place for a bull market, for example, we could construct a table that more clearly reflects this logical process.
There isn’t really a definition of a stock market crash. A correction occurs when stocks fall more than 10% from recent highs. A bear market is usually a sustained drop in prices, with prices falling at least 20% below recent highs. While there is no precise definition of a stock market crash, if the market falls more than 15% in a matter of days, many people would probably refer to it as a crash.

Last year I predicted a ‘world flu epidemic’ toward the end of 2017 or the start of 2018. I feel this could still happen. (10/10 Correct: “‘worst killer flu’ in 50 years” – Headline: The Sun 5th Jan 2018.) There may be a link to biological warfare seeded in multiple countries by North Korea working with a terrorist group. (Happening? “Reports Pyongyang is testing biological weapons for use on ballistic missiles.” Sky Television 27th Dec 2017 – these predictions were posted in October 2017)
Jun. 25, 2018 10:37 AM ET| Includes: BA, BF.B, D, DDM, DIA, DOG, DXD, EEH, EPS, EQL, FEX, FWDD, HOG, HUSV, IVV, IWL, IWM, JHML, JKD, OTPIX, PSQ, QID, QLD, QQEW, QQQ, QQQE, QQXT, RSP, RWM, RYARX, RYRSX, SCHX, SDOW, SDS, SFLA, SH, SMLL, SPDN, SPLX, SPUU, SPXE, SPXL, SPXN, SPXS, SPXT, SPXU, SPXV, SPY, SQQQ, SRTY, SSO, SYE, T, TNA, TQQQ, TU, TWM, TZA, UDOW, UDPIX, UPRO, URTY, UWM, VFINX, VOO, VTWO, VV, WHR, X
There isn’t really a definition of a stock market crash. A correction occurs when stocks fall more than 10% from recent highs. A bear market is usually a sustained drop in prices, with prices falling at least 20% below recent highs. While there is no precise definition of a stock market crash, if the market falls more than 15% in a matter of days, many people would probably refer to it as a crash.
My wife’s company was bought out recently and we are sitting on some cash, she is an Aries (April 1, 1971). We were planning to purchase rental property with that money in California. We are in two minds now, house prices have risen so high that unless you pay a lot of down payment the math won’t work out to be cash positive with rental income. On the other hand the prices just keep going up and up and we feel we have to jump in some time. After reading your article its seem prudent to pause and see what changes we see in May, may be invest in stock bargain in an event of crash or crash in housing too (Bay Area housing I feel is closely tied to stock market and employment). What do you see the best course of action for us to prepare/benefit from Uranus shift based on my birth chart. How it will affect me career wise, I am planning to look around for new job as there is no movement in current job. An alternative was to stay at same job but do day trading in stock, what do you see in my chart? Thanks.
Other scientists disagree with this notion, and note that market crashes are indeed “special.” Professor Didier Sornette, for example, a physicist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, argued that a market crash is not simply a scaled-up version of a normal down day but a true outlier to market behavior. In fact, he claims that ahead of critical points the market starts giving off some clues. His work focuses on interpreting these clues and identify when a bubble may be forming and, crucially, when it ends.
Finally, as you think about your allocation there are a few things to consider. Generally, lower risk bonds hold up better during stressed markets. U.S. Treasury bonds have historically risen in value during extreme market stress. It's not guaranteed but may be helpful to portfolios if history is any guide. Also, depending on the nature of the crisis diversifying assets such as commodities, including gold, or real estate can be helpful. Again, these won't work every time, for example in 2008-9 real estate was the epicenter of the crisis but spreading your bets can help. Finally, within stocks diversification is useful. We've seen high valuations in U.S. blue chips in the 1970s, U.S. tech in the 1990s and Japanese investments in the 1980s, each was met with nasty price declines on the other side. Rather than trying to predict these events, it can be best to spread your bets across sectors, geographies and other categories, so that if the next crash does focus on one specific area, then you won't be wiped out.

HARRY DENT JR.: We may be starting a topping process. I’m seeing signs of that, but it hasn’t yet been proven. We ought to see the market start to go down by early next year. If it doesn’t, I’m going back to the drawing board. If the market doesn’t start crashing by late January or early February, then we aren’t topping here. But we’re saying there’s going to be a crash. It’s just a matter of when [exactly].

Finally, sentiment. If the busboy just bought a new diesel VW with the money he made trading Apple? Keep an eye on things. There was a TV ad during the naz peak (1999?) for Schwab or whomever. FADE IN: Guy standing next to broken down car on the side of the road. Tow truck pulls up. Tow driver hooks him up and off they go. Inside the truck the passenger points to a big color picture of an island. He says “what’s that?” Tow driver says “that’s mine.” The passenger looks incredulous...”You own an island?” Tow driver smiles “well yea, I bought it with the money I made in the market…but, it’s not really just an island.” passenger bites...”Then what is it?” Driver replies…”it’s a country.”
I have posted a Guest Blog Entry at the My Personal Finance Journey blog. It is called Investors Who Ignore Valuations Are Like Overeaters Who Ignore the Risk of Heart Disease. Juicy Excerpt: Raddr examines the numbers and concludes that: “The poor retiree’s real net worth has dropped nearly two-thirds (from $1,000 to $367) in only 11 years, and he is now withdrawing about 11 percent of his portfolio per year, which is a recipe for disaster even if the market heads up big-time from…
The racial composition of stock market ownership shows households headed by whites are nearly four and six times as likely to directly own stocks than households headed by blacks and Hispanics respectively. As of 2011 the national rate of direct participation was 19.6%, for white households the participation rate was 24.5%, for black households it was 6.4% and for Hispanic households it was 4.3% Indirect participation in the form of 401k ownership shows a similar pattern with a national participation rate of 42.1%, a rate of 46.4% for white households, 31.7% for black households, and 25.8% for Hispanic households. Households headed by married couples participated at rates above the national averages with 25.6% participating directly and 53.4% participating indirectly through a retirement account. 14.7% of households headed by men participated in the market directly and 33.4% owned stock through a retirement account. 12.6% of female headed households directly owned stock and 28.7% owned stock indirectly.[14]
As we can see, the majority of planets here are listed as "neutral". That doesn't mean, however, that they have no effect on the markets. It just means that all things being equal, they do not have an intrinsic bias in regard to sentiment and prices. All planets, even the more clearly positive or negative ones, can exhibit a variety of price effects depending on the other planets and chart factors they are interacting with at any given time. Although all planets and houses possess certain natural inclinations, how they will eventually effect the market is more dependent on their temporary condition. For example, a positive planet like Venus if transiting over a malefic planet like Ketu in a malefic house like the 8th is more likely to coincide with a drop in the market. That's because the natural 'bullishness' of Venus has been corrupted, so to speak, by its temporary negative situation. Conversely, although Saturn is the planet most closely associated with pessimism and bear markets, if it forms a favourable alignment with positive aspects (e.g. 120 degrees) involving benefic planets, it often marks an upswing in prices. This is why it is crucial to take into account the whole chart rather than the motion of a single planet.
Also: August 13 1999 was the significant future date on the Aztec Sun calendar from Mexico of 500 years ago, and August 13 1999 was predicted by the Aztecs to be an important day of change for mankind, that would change the world, as described in the book: "Day of Destiny, Where will you be on August 13 1999?", by John Mini, published 1998 by Trans-Hyperborean Institute of Science.
The mid-1980s were a time of strong economic optimism. From August 1982 to its peak in August 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) grew from 776 to 2722. The rise in market indices for the 19 largest markets in the world averaged 296 percent during this period. The average number of shares traded on the NYSE(New York Stock Exchange) had risen from 65 million shares to 181 million shares.[26]
I haven’t had any premonition/prediction but I did dream of a date, I’m not sure if it relates to me personally or on a collective scale (both even). I have never been given a date before but after the autumn/spring equinox last year in September a man told me to await his call on September 21st 2015. Now 6 months after, I still anticipate things are going to happen this September. I’ve read of a 7yr pattern of financial collapses that have happened ’01 then ’08 both in September, we’re going to have a solar eclipse 13th and the 4th lunar eclipse on 27th. There’s also going to be a UN general assembly in between the eclipses which the pope will be attending as well as American congress. Anyone else feeling things for September 2015?
Most of the professional investors are signaling signs of a market collapse in next two three years before 2020 starts. Market crash in 2000 was sparked by technology sector failure and 2008 crash was sparked by real estate and property. But today almost all sectors have been overvalued. Many sectors listed at S&P 500 are trading at the highest level seen in last ten years.
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