President Trump has slapped 25% tariffs on steel and 10% on aluminum to combat what the administration has called the dumping of low-priced metals from other countries in the U.S. below market prices. That’s expected to raise prices for consumers and businesses and draw retaliation from other nations against U.S. exports. Even so, the impact on the economy likely will be negligible, economist Kathy Bostjancic of Oxford Economics says.
I recently posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Free Money Wisdom blog. It's titled What If Everything You Thought You Knew About Stock Investing Turned Out to be Wrong? Juicy Excerpt: Pfau’s most recent paper examines the one study that really did conclude that long-term timing does not work. The new paper states that: “Valuation-based market timing demonstrates greater potential to improve risk-adjusted returns for conservative long-term investors than given credit by Fisher and Statman…
Over the next year, "equities will probably continue to go up as we have all these stock buybacks and free cash flow," Minerd told CNBC. But "ultimately, when the chickens come home to roost and we have a recession, we're going to see a lot of pressure on equities especially as defaults rise, and I think once we reach a peak that we'll probably see a 40% retracement in equities."
"American business will do fine over time. And stocks will do well just as certainly, since their fate is tied to business performance. Periodic setbacks will occur, yes, but investors and managers are in a game that is heavily stacked in their favor. (The Dow Jones Industrials advanced from 66 to 11,497 in the 20th Century, a staggering 17,320% increase that materialized despite four costly wars, a Great Depression and many recessions. And don't forget that shareholders received substantial dividends throughout the century as well.)"
We have entered a time when global events appear to be accelerating significantly. Earlier today, bombs were mailed to major political leaders all over the United States. In the Middle East, it looks like Israel and Hamas could go to war at any moment. And we continue to see a rise in major seismic events – including three very large earthquakes that just hit the Cascadia Subduction Zone.
Unfortunately, the Fed is fallible, just like stock market investors. If inflation -- i.e., the rising price of goods and services -- begins to heat up, the nation’s central bank could choose to get considerably more hawkish with its monetary policy. Or, in plainer English, it could get more aggressive with hiking its benchmark short-term interest rate between banks. Should that happen, interest rates for variable rate loans and mortgages would be expected to rise. This, in turn, could put the brakes on economic growth, as well as increase delinquency rates tied to variable rate loans.
2007 was the third year of drier weather and the onset of the Great Recession. 2008 and 2009 were wetter than 2007 but, then, 2010 turned drier by an inch and 2011 still drier by two additional inches. 2012 continued the short dry trend and was the driest year since 1988! The economy indeed struggled throughout 2012 although stocks regained much of their Great Recession loss. 2013 finally reversed the drop in precipitation (don’t try to tell that to Californians) with an average gain throughout the U.S. of 1.12 inches. Drier conditions in 2014 stalled but did not stop the gradual market rally.
Weingarten doesn’t often discuss his bad predictions: for instance, the great stock market crash of 2006. Or the meteoric rise of a “robotic construction” company named International Hi-Tech Industries Inc., which paid him as a consultant, underwrote his website, and eventually fell to pennies a share before being delisted. (Weingarten: “Well, the guy was an asshole.”) Look a little deeper into the records of other astrologers, and they aren’t always pretty. When I call Hulbert, the guy who rates newsletters, he confirms that once in a while Crawford has performed really well. But overall? From 1989 to early 2016, Hulbert says, his record was “unremarkable.”
In the United Kingdom Tesco offers financial services through Tesco Bank, formerly a 50:50 joint venture with The Royal Bank of Scotland. Products on offer include credit cards, loans, mortgages, savings accounts and several types of insurance, including car, home, life and travel. They are promoted by leaflets in Tesco's shops and through its website. The business made a profit of £130 million for the 52 weeks to 24 February 2007, of which Tesco's share was £66 million. This move towards the financial sector diversified the Tesco brand and provides opportunities for growth outside of the retailing sector. On 28 July 2008, Tesco announced that they would buy out the Royal Bank of Scotland's 50% stake in the company for £950 million.
The equity market actually peaked in late 2007, and appeared to be undergoing a correction in early 2008. However, after a brief recovery in April 2008 failed to reach the all-time highs, the market fell for the following 11 months. By March 2009 the S&P 500 index had fallen more than 55%. Unprecedented action by the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy and market led to the beginning of the bull market that has continued until today.
June 6, 2006. 6-6-06, 666 being the number of the Antichrist. Note that this was 40 years after 6-6-66 (June 6, 1966), 40 years being associated in the Bible with a period of testing. Note that AIDS was first announced on June 5, 1981, when it was first detected in five men in Los Angeles. So June 5 2006 was the 25th anniversary of AIDS, 1 day before 6-6-06. Could it be that AIDS is one form of the Fourth Horseman of the Apocalypse, Death? And Putin the Antichrist hosted the G-8 summit of world industrial powers in Russia in July 2006.
The Tesco supermarket chain is involved in litigation such as the Ward v Tesco Stores Ltd and Tesco Supermarkets Ltd v Nattrass cases. Tesco have been criticized for aggressively pursuing critics of the company in Thailand. Writer and former MP Jit Siratranont faced up to two years in jail and a £16.4 million libel damages claim for saying that Tesco was expanding aggressively at the expense of small local retailers. Tesco served him with writs for criminal defamation and civil libel. The Thai court dismissed the case, ruling that the criticism made by the defendant was 'in good faith by way of fair comment on any person or thing subjected to public criticism'.
This new depression will be somewhere between the recession we felt of the 70s, and the 30s, but on a global scale. It won’t be barrels full of money to buy bread, but there will be tremendous unemployment and people having to change their lifestyles dramatically in some cases to get through this time. I also feel that the length and severity of this depression/recession has been greatly reduced by the election of Obama. His chart compared to that of the US constitution signing, and the Dow, and NASDAQ are good. Most of his energy regarding the markets will be spent in re-structuring them for the future good of the world’s economy.
Jump up ^ Goetzmann, William N.; Rouwenhorst, K. Geert (2008). The History of Financial Innovation, in Carbon Finance, Environmental Market Solutions to Climate Change. (Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, chapter 1, pp. 18–43). As Goetzmann & Rouwenhorst (2008) noted, "The 17th and 18th centuries in the Netherlands were a remarkable time for finance. Many of the financial products or instruments that we see today emerged during a relatively short period. In particular, merchants and bankers developed what we would today call securitization. Mutual funds and various other forms of structured finance that still exist today emerged in the 17th and 18th centuries in Holland."
Early this year, Congress raised budget spending caps by about $300 billion, with most of that devoted to higher defense spending, but that deal expires in late 2019. And the nation’s debt limit must be raised in early 2019. Both issues set up dramatic showdowns in Congress, especially if the midterm elections this year result in a more even split between Democrats and Republicans.
Another of his predictions involved the uptick in the price of oil, thanks to “astrology, Trump, OPEC restraint, global growth, and Mideast geopolitics-potential ISIS al-Qaeda mischief.” The astrology part is determined by the movements of Neptune and Pluto. Neptune “rules” oil and gas, in part because it signifies the blurring of boundaries, presumably because … Neptune is the god of the sea? Pluto, meanwhile, is the god of the underworld, and oil comes from under the world. I point out to Weingarten that he’s ascribing to planets characteristics that have no significance beyond the mythological names they were given. “Maybe they were well-named,” he replies.
Merci pour ce magnifique article! Je commence à peine à gérer mes placements en bourse avec un petit montant. Je lis tout ce qui me tombe sous la main et j’apprend par moi-même et me fait une meilleure idée. Par contre je dois avouer que ce qui me tracasse un peu ces derniers jours, c’est le dilemne de metre dans un celi ou reer (je possède les 2) je suis très confus par tout ce que j’entend et lis. Je veux sauver de l’impôt sur le revenu ave mon réer mais en même temps certains diront qur ce n’est que partie remise.
Writing with Brunello Rosa, Nouriel sets the scene this way: “The current global expansion will likely continue into next year, given that the US is running large fiscal deficits, China is pursuing loose fiscal and credit policies, and Europe remains on a recovery path. But by 2020, the conditions will be ripe for a financial crisis, followed by a global recession.”
Shadox at the Money and Such blog recently posted a blog entry entitled Passive Investing Is for Extremists: The Critque. Juicy Excerpt: His main claim relates no so much to how you invest in stocks, but rather to the percentage of your portfolio that is invested in this asset class, regardless of which stocks or stock funds you put your money into. I think that it is more correct to say that Rob is against passive asset allocation, than he is against passive investing as I understand…
As any scientific work, he starts with an hypothesis, applies examples for validity, and then makes predictions. Are his predictions 100% correct -- no (only 60% correct). But that does not invalidate his ideas. Perhaps it means that the theory is partially correct and needs tweeking; or perhaps it means going back to the drawing board. That is the beauty of science and the scientific approach -- there are no Hollywood endings.
Even odder than the existence of the Astrologers Fund is its ability to attract the interest of nonlunatics. A few years ago, Fox News’ Neil Cavuto told Weingarten on the air that he was “one of the best stockpickers I know.” Post-symposium, at the Princeton Club, Weingarten and I are joined at a table by a buttoned-down crew. One of them is an analyst for a small investment bank; another says he runs his own family office. Everyone has some kind of relationship with Weingarten, from the cordial to the professional, though nobody seems to understand how financial astrology works. “Tell me the time, don’t build me a clock!” says Paul Feeney, a corporate headhunter, repeatedly.
Seventh, US and global equity markets are frothy. Price-to-earnings ratios in the US are 50% above the historic average, private-equity valuations have become excessive, and government bonds are too expensive, given their low yields and negative term premia. And high-yield credit is also becoming increasingly expensive now that the US corporate-leverage rate has reached historic highs.