A couple of weeks after the symposium, on the day after the summer solstice, Weingarten and I meet again at the Princeton Club. Weingarten didn’t attend Princeton and has no connection to the university. He uses it as a base because the food is top-notch, he lives nearby, and he doesn’t have an office. In any event, he’s elated, and shows me why on his laptop. For months he’s been telling his newsletter subscribers that Bitcoin will slide in June, particularly around the 21st, the day of the solstice. And … bingo! The price of Bitcoin has dropped today almost $700, one of its biggest one-day plunges.
À 13 heures, l'euro commença à décliner face au dollar et au yen. Le marché était baissier et la volatilité s'accentua sur certains titres financiers. Le nombre d'échanges augmenta au-delà de la moyenne. À 14 h 30, l'indice VIX mesurant la volatilité sur l'indice S&P 500 augmenta de 22,5 % par rapport au cours d'ouverture. Le rendement des obligations d'État américaines à 10 ans diminua, reflétant la volonté des investisseurs de se réfugier vers des valeurs sûres. Le Dow Jones était avant le flash crash en baisse de 2,5 %. Sur les marchés électroniques, les ordres d'achats de contrats futures E-Mini S&P 500 (en) ainsi que de l'ETF S&P 500 SPDR (en), les deux dérivés sur indices les plus échangés, sont passés respectivement de 6 milliards à 2,65 milliards de dollars (soit une baisse de 55 %) et de 275 millions à 220 millions de dollars (soit une baisse de 20 %). De nombreux autres titres de sociétés subirent également une baisse de la liquidité.
Over the next year, "equities will probably continue to go up as we have all these stock buybacks and free cash flow," Minerd told CNBC. But "ultimately, when the chickens come home to roost and we have a recession, we're going to see a lot of pressure on equities especially as defaults rise, and I think once we reach a peak that we'll probably see a 40% retracement in equities."
Please note this is a very technical book for the general public. You don't need a PhD to understand it, but you do need to be comfortable with data plots and discussions of equations. You also need more than a general understanding of statistics; concepts such as correlation, regression, and model fit should not be intimidating to you. Some background in Physics will also be helpful, especially if you already understand the equation of oscillatory motion.
His new book, “Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage,” written with Andrew Pancholi (Portfolio), raises a loud alarm about the 2020s, which, based mainly on four demographic and geopolitical cycles, will bring a ghastly global crisis, or what Dent terms the dark “Economic Winter,” he predicts.
No expert prediction or technical indicator is necessary. The makings of the next crash are already clear. Whether it’s Janet Yellen or Jerome Powell who will head the Federal Reserve after February 2018, interest rates can only move higher. At the current rate of debt, even 100 basis points (one percent) higher interest will mean $200.0 billion in additional (not all, mind you, just the extra bit) in debt.
I think worldwide economic chaos could occur during 2018 - 2020, as the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse ride, with the Third Horseman being Economic Chaos. World economics could see stock market swings in 2019 - 2020. Watch out for Europe's economy having problems 2019 - 2020. There could be continued economic problems in Europe. The 3rd horseman of the apocalypse economic chaos rides. Note that this is a case of "the road to Hell is paved with good intentions". Good intentions: the Euro single currency seemed like a good idea. Road to Hell: some of the countries (Greece and others) with uncontrolled deficits and borrowing dragged down all of Europe's economy. And Putin may want to take over more of the former Soviet Union countries, similar to Ukraine.
In 2007, Tesco was placed under investigation by the UK Office of Fair Trading (OFT) for acting as part of a cartel of five supermarkets (Safeway, Tesco, Asda, Morrisons and Sainsburys) and a number of dairy companies to fix the price of milk, butter and cheese. In December 2007, Asda, Sainsburys and the former Safeway admitted that they acted covertly against the interests of consumers while publicly claiming that they were supporting 5,000 farmers recovering from the foot-and-mouth crisis. They were fined a total of £116 million.
One of the reasons Warren Buffett’s predictions tend to have more weight is that they’re less based on outright fortune telling and more on a series of clear indicators. In other words, the Warren Buffett Indicator works like a barometer. It does not predict rain, per se, but it does tell you whether you should look for an umbrella in the closet to keep it handy for the next day.
Because they’ve got the frackers sitting on them. Every time oil gets back to $50 or $60, the frackers start cranking up again, and then they get excess supply. The Saudi princes are saying we’ll never see $100 oil again, and I agree — or at least not for a very, very long time. I see oil at pretty much between $20 and $60 for decades. And we won’t see natural gas at $14 again — because of fracking.
For example, a situation may arise in which there are apparently offsetting influences of planetary transits from benefic Jupiter and malefic Saturn to key natal planets. In those instances, an astrological analysis is perhaps better off deferring judgement until other planetary influences come in to tip the balance. In this way, the best approach is for a selective application of astrological insights at critical turning points in the market. So while it may not be clear just how a stock will move over a period of days, weeks or even months, the astrologer will be able to identify critical time windows that have a much greater likelihood of ups or downs. Knowing these times of probable market outcomes can come in very handy to the trader, even if they only occur sporadically.
FOR much of the past two years, market watchers have had little to write about, apart from the passing of one stock-index milestone after another. The events of the past week, however, have shaken the financial world awake. A recent, upward zag in bond yields seemed to signal the arrival of a new theme in market movements. Stock prices confirmed it, and then some. Over the past week, American stocks have dropped about 7%, punctuated by a breathtaking, record-setting plunge on Monday. The Dow Jones stock index recorded its largest ever one-day drop, of more than 1,000 points. In percentage terms the decline, of more than 4%, was the biggest since 2011.
I recently posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Budgeting in the Fun Stuff blog. It's called The Last Days of Stock Investing Risk. Juicy Excerpt: You can never eliminate risk entirely because short-term returns are not at all predictable. But there is now 33 years of peer-reviewed research showing that long-term returns are highly predictable for those who consider valuations. Risk is optional! Go with a high stock allocation when prices are low, a moderate stock allocation when prices are at…
Mother Earth is now in greatest distress because of the exploding population explosion which is greatly ignored by the governments. As you are aware we all have our free wills. Some countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Palestine have all run out of space and many countries are encroaching on valuable farm lands. Added to this is enchroaching and expanding deserts and valuable coastal lands overtaken by encroaching sea waters because of global warming. Added to this is massive droughts and floods. You, Dear Sir, spend a lot of time in India and are very familiar with Karma, nemisis, faith, yogamaya, samskara – Every action has an equal reaction. Now is Payback time. As Ex- President Senior Bush said – ” you ( earth people) trash the earth, the earth will trash you back”. You all are going to be trashed severally. This is a grim warning.
Tax avoidance has not always related to corporation tax. A number of companies including Tesco used a scheme to avoid VAT by deeming 2.5% of purchases paid for by card to be a 'card transaction fee', which reduced the company's tax liability without changing the charge to the customer. Such schemes came to light after HMRC litigated against Debenhams over the scheme in 2005.
Blind optimism over the tax cuts have led Wall Street analysts to produce a 2019 forward earnings estimate that's 46% greater than the most recent 12-month operating earnings for the S&P 500, he said. "The combination of extreme valuations and extreme earnings expectations creates a situation that's ripe for disappointment," wrote Hussman in a recent blog post on his company site.
“At the Very Bare Minimum, Anyone Who Points Someone to One of the Buy-and-Hold Retirement Studies for Use in Planning a Retirement Should Let That Person Know That There Are Today Two Schools of Academic Thought as to How Stock Investing Works, Not One, and Let that Person Make the Decision as to Whether to Rely on the Numbers Generated by the Buy-and-Hold Studies or the Numbers Generated by the Valuation-Informed Indexing Studies.”
Sometimes, the market seems to react irrationally to economic or financial news, even if that news is likely to have no real effect on the fundamental value of securities itself. However, this market behaviour may be more apparent than real, since often such news was anticipated, and a counterreaction may occur if the news is better (or worse) than expected. Therefore, the stock market may be swayed in either direction by press releases, rumors, euphoria and mass panic.
He’d say that Trump had a brilliant strategy for getting elected because he used to tell me that it’s not the middle class that decides elections — it’s the All Star Wrestling fans, the 15% to 20% clueless, bigoted, narrow-minded, dumbest people in the country, who are easily influenced. Those are the people who have been most pissed off in recent decades because their wages and earning power have been falling as a result of foreign and immigrant workers. Trump [targeted] them squarely and won them by [a margin of] about 80%.
In January 2013, the British media reported that horse meat had been found in some meat products sold by Tesco, along with other retailers, particularly burgers. Prime Minister David Cameron called this "unacceptable", with products showing 29.1% horse meat in the "Value" range burger, which were supposed to be beef. It was later revealed in February 2013 that some of Tesco's Everyday Value Spaghetti Bolognese contained 60% horse meat. Tesco withdrew 26 of its products in response, and announced that they were working with authorities and the supplier to investigate the cause of the contamination.
Commodities are crashing the fastest; so they’re likely to turn around early. They’re driven more by emerging countries, which are big commodity producers, versus developed countries. I like industrial and precious metals, including gold, silver and platinum, because they’re scarce. They’ll outperform. You can’t just farm them like you can cows and pigs and corn and wheat, [for which] you can always expand into more land. But there’s only so much gold, platinum and other metals. I’m big on gold after it crashes.
Genuis and DK: Ten dollar bills and twenties’s mainly and some hundred dollar bills in a house safe. good idea: pvc pipe with currency stashed under other pipe, like in the shed. make sure there are end caps to keep bugs out. Lots of canned sardines, spam, salmon, beans, chicken, canned veggies, etc. None of this long term crap that is loaded with sodium and fillers. After I’ve taken money out of my account, more is deposited from retirement/brokerage accounts soon after, and I have to repeat the cycle again. Many can relate to this endless cycle.
Anaconda, Friday, and Memes: 500 5000 500 BUSINESS THE DOW DROP 4000 Feb 6 | The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted the largest-ever point decline yesterday. The Dow Jones, a stock market index of publicly-traded companies based in the U.S., posted its largest-ever, single-day decline of more than 1,100 points. Since Friday, the Dow has dropped a total of 7%. This is the largest percent decline since August of 2011. ____ Photo: WSJ Market Data Group
The financial system in most western countries has undergone a remarkable transformation. One feature of this development is disintermediation. A portion of the funds involved in saving and financing, flows directly to the financial markets instead of being routed via the traditional bank lending and deposit operations. The general public interest in investing in the stock market, either directly or through mutual funds, has been an important component of this process.
Adverts in the early 1990s had a man called David, portrayed by Dudley Moore, on the hunt for free-range chickens from France and discovering many goods from around the world to purchase for Tesco. Late 2000s adverts included many celebrities and celebrity voice-overs such as The Spice Girls and the voice of actors James Nesbitt and Jane Horrocks.
During the 2019 - 2020 time period expect to see economic chaos, wars, terrorist attacks, disease epidemics, great earthquakes, volcanos, asteroids hit earth. But how about in the past, were there any particular planetary alignments during times of economic problems? Yes, there is a general pattern we shall discuss here. During the October 1987 and October 1929 stock exchange crashes, the Planet Saturn was in the Astrological sign of Sagittarius. The significance of this is that Sagittarius, the combined horse/man, with Saturn having a connection in Greek / Roman / Etruscan mythology to agriculture as well as weghts and measures and coins, means that Saturn in Sagittarius represents the third Horseman of the Apocalypse, economic depression. When Saturn is in Sagittarius you may get the trigger event, such as a stock market crash, that begins an economic depression.
Sixth, Europe, too, will experience slower growth, owing to monetary-policy tightening and trade frictions. Moreover, populist policies in countries such as Italy may lead to an unsustainable debt dynamic within the eurozone. The still-unresolved “doom loop” between governments and banks holding public debt will amplify the existential problems of an incomplete monetary union with inadequate risk-sharing. Under these conditions, another global downturn could prompt Italy and other countries to exit the eurozone altogether.