3. They also found, to the surprise of some readers I’m sure, “that some widely cited economic variables displayed an unexpected, counterintuitive correlation with future returns. The ratio of govern- ment debt to GDP is an example: Although its R2makes it seem a better performer than others, the reason is actually opposite to what one would expect—the government debt/GDP ratio has had a positive relationship with the long-term realized return. In other words, higher government debt levels have been associated with higher future stock returns, at least in the United States since 1926″.
On October 31, Halloween, children and adults alike enjoy playing with the frightful themes of death surrounding the feast’s mixture of Christian All Saints’ Day and Celtic pagan origins. But, in 2017, if you are one of millions of people who have investments, here’s something all too real and scary to rob you of your sleep. This Warren Buffett Indicator predicts a stock market crash in 2018.
In the period running up to the 1987 crash, less than 1 percent of the analyst's recommendations had been to sell (and even during the 2000–2002 bear market, the average did not rise above 5%). In the run-up to 2000, the media amplified the general euphoria, with reports of rapidly rising share prices and the notion that large sums of money could be quickly earned in the so-called new economy stock market.
In Professor Sornette’s model, a bubble is a market heading to a critical point. But a crash is not the only possible post-crisis outcome: Prices can also stop rising and reach a higher plateau. It is precisely because of the small but real probability that a bubble will not crash but simply stop growing that it is rational for some investors to stay in the market, even when if they think that it has gone too far, too fast.
Over six terrifying, desperate days in October 1929, the fabulous fortune that Americans had built in stocks plunged with a fervor never seen before. At first, the drop seemed like a mistake, a mere glitch in the system. But as the decline gathered steam, so did the destruction. Over twenty-five billion dollars in individual wealth was lost, vanished gone. People watched their dreams fade before their very eyes. Investing in the stock market would never be the same.
I just wonder if the revolutions in countries in the Middle East could bring them closer to Russia and Putin the Antichrist. Perhaps this will lead to the Middle East War described in Ezekiel and also Revelation 16 as Armageddon, that it could be an alliance of Middle East and North Africa countries that will form a military alliance with Russia led by the Antichrist Putin. What Middle Eastern countries will next see revolution? Where will these revolutions lead? It could work out well, with peaceful democracies in these countries. On the other hand, the French Revolution resulted in a bloodbath in France, and a monstrous dictator Napoleon who resulted in war across Europe. And the Russian Revolution resulted in the Soviet Union, and millions murdered by Stalin. So revolutions can work out well like the American Revolution did, but sometimes they don't. War in the Middle East could result from these changes, the Second Horseman of the Apocalypse War riding in 2018-2019. And if political unrest comes to Pakistan, with all its nuclear weapons, that could be a major concern. Also watch out for: North Korea attacking South Korea, or war in the Middle East.
Memes, Obama, and Http: TRUMP HAS CREATED 11.6 MILLION JOBS, RAISED WAGES 4% AFTER INFLATION, SET RECORD CORPORATE PROFITS, DECREASED THE UNINSURED BY 15 MILLION, REDUCED THE ANNUAL DEFICIT HE INHERITED BY A TRILLION DOLLARS AND NEARLY TRIPLED THE STOCK MARKET. 2 JUST KIDDING, THAT WAS OBAMA OCCUPY DEMOCRATS 25 Memes Proving Trump Will Never Measure Up to Obama: http://bit.ly/2rxPlUj
In the 17th and 18th centuries, the Dutch pioneered several financial innovations that helped lay the foundations of the modern financial system. While the Italian city-states produced the first transferable government bonds, they did not develop the other ingredient necessary to produce a fully fledged capital market: the stock market. In the early 1600s the Dutch East India Company (VOC) became the first company in history to issue bonds and shares of stock to the general public. As Edward Stringham (2015) notes, "companies with transferable shares date back to classical Rome, but these were usually not enduring endeavors and no considerable secondary market existed (Neal, 1997, p. 61)." The Dutch East India Company (founded in the year of 1602) was also the first joint-stock company to get a fixed capital stock and as a result, continuous trade in company stock occurred on the Amsterdam Exchange. Soon thereafter, a lively trade in various derivatives, among which options and repos, emerged on the Amsterdam market. Dutch traders also pioneered short selling – a practice which was banned by the Dutch authorities as early as 1610. Amsterdam-based businessman Joseph de la Vega's Confusion de Confusiones (1688) was the earliest known book about stock trading and first book on the inner workings of the stock market (including the stock exchange).
I recently engaged in a discussion of the Efficient Market Theory at the Early Retirement Extreme Forum. The thread is titled Is Efficient Market a Theory, Hypothesis, Fact, Law or Notion? Juicy Excerpt #1: I want to be fair in my descriptions. I don't want to underplay the extent to which I believe the evidence has been misinterpreted. I believe that this misinterpretation has caused a great deal of misery. So I want to be firm on this point. But I also want to be fair. I don't want to be…
Now, me…. I’m doing meditation, clearing debts, and planning to just see what happens and not much options due to illness but in any case – I’ve got Jupiter Taurus natal at 20 and Scorpio sun at 24. I just don’t dare hope but thought I’d ask what you think? I’m zen about life so don’t sugarcoat, if you have time and I’m not too late to this. Wishing you the best! Thanks Jessica
Bonjour Jean-Sebastien! Je viens de terminer la lecture de vos articles et je dois dire que vous me motivez encore plus à acquérir mon indépendance financière. Étant encore relativement jeune et aux études (21 ans et en voie de commencer son MBA l’année prochaine), l’objectif semble encore loin, mais facilement atteignable avec de la motivation! J’aimerais cependant avoir votre avis sur les stratégies de placement. Comme j’ai pu constater suite à la lecture de vos articles sur l’investissement, vous privilégiez beaucoup les FNB aux autres produits de placement à cause de leurs faibles frais de gestion et vous semblez être plus réticent face aux fonds communs investis à l’aide d’un conseiller financier. Cependant, que pensez vous des fonds communs investis à l’aide de plateforme de courtage en ligne qui diminuent considérablement les frais de gestion? En investissant dans des fonds commun de série D (directement en ligne) plutôt que A (avec conseiller) les frais peuvent souvent se réduire de moitié pour tourner autour de 1%. J’aimerais avoir votre avis sur cette situation. Merci beaucoup et continuez votre bon travail! J’espère pouvoir vous rencontrer un jour et échanger sur votre expérience.
Welcome to the July 2013 Carnival of Passive Investing, a monthly collection of the best and most intelligent Passive Investing strategy articles around the internet. Some people foolishly want to beat the market (want being the key word) but we just want to invest with it. The purpose of the carnival is two-fold: To provide a forum to showcase articles and research in passive investing strategies (i.e., investing in ETFs, index mutual funds, etc., in such a way that one avoids…
The stock market crash of October 1929 led directly to the Great Depression in Europe. When stocks plummeted on the New York Stock Exchange, the world noticed immediately. Although financial leaders in the United Kingdom, as in the United States, vastly underestimated the extent of the crisis that would ensue, it soon became clear that the world's economies were more interconnected than ever. The effects of the disruption to the global system of financing, trade, and production and the subsequent meltdown of the American economy were soon felt throughout Europe.
The total value of equity-backed securities in the United States rose over 600% in the 25 years between 1989 and 2012 as market capitalization expanded from $2,790 billion to $18,668 billion. Direct ownership of stock by individuals rose slightly from 17.8% in 1992 to 17.9% in 2007, with the median value of these holdings rising from $14,778 to $17,000. Indirect participation in the form of retirement accounts rose from 39.3% in 1992 to 52.6% in 2007, with the median value of these accounts more than doubling from $22,000 to $45,000 in that time. Rydqvist, Spizman, and Strebulaev attribute the differential growth in direct and indirect holdings to differences in the way each are taxed in the United States. Investments in pension funds and 401ks, the two most common vehicles of indirect participation, are taxed only when funds are withdrawn from the accounts. Conversely, the money used to directly purchase stock is subject to taxation as are any dividends or capital gains they generate for the holder. In this way the current tax code incentivizes individuals to invest indirectly.
Je crois que je n’étais pas clair dans ma question. Qu est ce que ça me rapporte de plus et est-ce qu’ils tente vraiment de me diriger vers les fonds qu’il veut pour faire une commission ou bien y a til vraiment plus de risques ou moins d’avantages dans des fonds auto gérés. je dois avouer que le 2.3% me donne mal au coeur, ça voudrait dire que je pourrais investir dans le même fond moi même et aller chercher 10%. (je comprend aussi le principe d’avoir quelqu’un qui nous donne des stratégies d’épargnes et placements variés.
2) Au niveau fiscal, et ceci est très important, si vous transigez quotidiennement ou plusieurs fois par semaine et que le revenu annuel est important, Revenu Canada et Revenu Québec ne traiteront pas ces revenus comme des gains en capitaux mais bien comme un revenu pur et simple de travail puisqu’ils considèrent que vous exercez une activité de professionnel (et le « seuil » du nombre de transactions à partir duquel ils vous collent l’étiquette de « professionnel de l’investissement » est entièrement à leur discrétion !). Vous ne serez donc pas imposé à 25% (ou sur 50% des gains) mais bien sur tous les gains donc à votre taux marginal. Et le Fisc se fait un malin plaisir de revenir loin en arrière pour réclamer son dû (avec intérêts s’il y a lieu). Ceci est vrai pour les comptes de courtage ordinaires ou les CELI. Soyez donc très prudent dans vos déclarations de revenus si vous ne voulez pas avoir de mauvaises surprises quelques années plus tard. Évidemment, sachant ceci, si l’activité vous procure un revenu important, le taux d’imposition sera alors secondaire…
That is when a ‘swaroopa’ appeared before him and said what can be briefly summarized as follows: He was the Aksharateeta Purushottama, Shri Krishna! Shri Krishna then gave him certain directions and revealed certain truths that are contained in TV. Thus the 5000 year old text composed by the revered Vedavyas, especially for enlightening the Parama-hamsas [most spiritually evolved souls] expected to appear in world later in Kaliyuga, truly turned out to be the forerunner of manifestation of TV via Shri Devachandraji and his chosen disciple Mahamati Prananath. It was through the latter that TV containing 18758 divine verses in several languages of 17th century India manifested during the period 1657-94 AD.
A stock market, equity market or share market is the aggregation of buyers and sellers (a loose network of economic transactions, not a physical facility or discrete entity) of stocks (also called shares), which represent ownership claims on businesses; these may include securities listed on a public stock exchange, as well as stock that is only traded privately. Examples of the latter include shares of private companies which are sold to investors through equity crowdfunding platforms. Stock exchanges list shares of common equity as well as other security types, e.g. corporate bonds and convertible bonds.
En bourse, personne de peut vous assurer un rendement. Vous êtes à la merci des marchés. Vous pouvez consulter l’historique du portefeuille et espérer que la tendance se maintienne. Mais, gardez en tête que vous pouvez perdre (surtout à court terme). L’important est de garder une vision à long terme. Par exemple, les portefeuilles GPS ont un horizon de placement de cinq ans.
Le REER te permet de placer de l’argent sur lequel tu n’as pas payer d’impôt et de diminuer le montant sur lequel tu paies de l’impôt chaque année (il diminue en quelque sorte ton salaire brut). Le but étant, une fois la retraite atteinte, de retirer un montant annuel de tes REER plus faible que ce que tu gagnes comme revenu actuellement, et donc de payer moins d’impôt en bout de ligne. Ainsi, je vais donner des chiffres fictifs mais si tu gagnes 100,000$ actuellement et que tu devrais payer près de 45% d’impôt, mais que tu places anuellement 30000$ dans ton REER, tu vas payer moins d’impôt ajourd’hui, et si une fois la retaitre atteinte tu ne retires que 40,000$ par année de ton REER, tu ne vas payer de l’impôt que sur 40,000$. Donc, le REER te permet surtout de sauver au niveau de l’impôt maintenant et plus tard. Le REER est avantageux surtout s’il te permet de changer de classe de revenu imposable, ou si tu comptes retirer beaucoup moins d’argent annuellement à la retraite que ce que tu gagnes actuellement.
In the case of books, it would be wise not to try to reinvent the wheel. If you know a book is excellent for investing, then pick it up and start reading. For example, if Warren Buffet says to read “The Intelligent Investor” by Benjamin Graham then you’d better find it and start reading. Admittedly, some of the older books on the topic of investing are very dry. In this case, it may be helpful to get the audio version.
As any scientific work, he starts with an hypothesis, applies examples for validity, and then makes predictions. Are his predictions 100% correct -- no (only 60% correct). But that does not invalidate his ideas. Perhaps it means that the theory is partially correct and needs tweeking; or perhaps it means going back to the drawing board. That is the beauty of science and the scientific approach -- there are no Hollywood endings.
I recently wrote a Guest Blog Entry for the Moolanomy blog entitled The Difference Between the Multiply-by-25 Rule and the 4-Percent Rule. Juicy Excerpt: I believe strongly that the 4-Percent Rule at some times overstates and at other times understates the amount needed for a safe retirement; at times of high valuations the true safe withdrawal can drop to as low as 2 percent and at times of low valuations it can rise to as high as 9 percent. The Multiply-by-25 Rule isn’t by itself…
I don’t think you are wrong about Trump winning the Presidency. He is very close in the polls and the Clinton’s who totally control the media have faked the polls to show she is winning (came out in Wikileaks), but she isn’t. All their corruption is coming to light through WikiLeaks, disgruntled FBI agents, and alternative media investigative journalism. Moreover, the astronomical increase in the cost of health premiums under ObamaCare is turning tons of people away from Clinton. The only way she could win is by rigging big time the elections, but Trump supporters have organized an army of people to address the rigging.
Real Wealth Strategist is an investment newsletter. Matt Badiali’s work has taken him to Papua New Guinea, Iraq, Hong Kong, Singapore, Haiti, Turkey, Switzerland and many other locations around the world. He’s visited countless mines and oil wells internationally, interrogated CEOs about their latest resource prospects and analyzed all manners of geologic data. Matt believes the best way to be sure if an investment is safe (and correctly made) is to see it in person.
The U.S. stock market is in an amazing shape. Every day new all-time highs are set. This MUST be bullish, and investors should go all-in, right? Well, not that fast, at least not in our opinion. We see many signs that this rally is getting overextended, from an historical perspective. While we clearly said a year ago that we were bullish for this year, we did not see any stock market crash coming (a year ago). Right now, we are now on record with a forecast of a stock market crash in 2018, and it could take place as early as the first weeks / months of 2018.
January 28, 2016: Thirty years ago today, the Challenger space shuttle exploded with seven aboard. We wrote in our CP newsletter of Dec. 31 1985: "Mars - Pluto- North Node conjunction on Christmas day foreshadowed the terrorism of the holiday period as well as the sharp market decline into that configuration... There will be additional exacerbation at the Full Moon (Jan. 28) as it squares Pluto (ruler of Debt and Terrorism). READ MORE
You might be wondering if we’ve endured one too many ghost apparitions. To suggest that no less than Warren Buffett, whose net worth is north of $80.0 billion, expects the market to reverse its bullish course seems not just scary, it seems silly. But Warren Buffett’s predictions for 2018 call for at least a market correction—if not an outright crash.
Dear Sir, let me comment on your prediction that by ‘by 2025 millions will have forsaken Islam’ sounds very odd and far from the actual truth. As a matter of fact as I see it Islam, the pure and authentic Abrahamic Divine Creed will strive and will be embraced by a vast majority of people of good will and those who really believe in submission to the Divine Will of our Creator and the unique and all- merciful God! Mark my words: The salvation of humanity lies in abiding by, Islamic Monotheism and it will happen between 2017-2021.
"In turbulent times for financial markets, more books than usual are published on such subjects as financial crashes. This book is different. First, it is written by an internationally recognized expert in non-linear, complex systems. Second, it promotes some new ideas in both finance and science. In addition, it offers the general reader an insight into finance, both practical and academic, as well as some of the issues at the cutting edge of science. What more could one ask for?"--Neil F. Johnson, Department of Physics and Oxford Center for Computational Finance, Oxford University
The Mayan prophecies are quite correct; it is that we expected an immediate change to occur when it is going to be gradual. Considering that the new age is based on the feminine, all changes will be passive; at times that passive that these changes are going to be quite unnoticeable to many people at first. The people who notice these consciousness changes will lead the world towards and through this conscious change.
Essentially, the basic rule of financial astrology is: Favourable planetary alignments through transit contacts with benefics during the dasha periods of well-placed planets will tend to yield price increases, while bad aspects from bad planets -- a square (90 degree) aspect from Saturn for example -- will usually push the share price down. As already noted, situations where unambiguously good or bad planetary patterns predominate occur most of the time. This is the main reason why many astrologers run into trouble. They extrapolate too far on the basis of thin or ambiguous data. A more prudent strategy is to refrain from making predictions at times of conflicting data and only take firm positions when the variables are more clearly defined.
A little more than a week later, stocks sank after a tweet from the president challenged the idea that Russia’s missile defense system could shoot down American smart bombs. Investors clearly worry that Trump’s tweeted rhetoric could be taken the wrong way by one or more global leaders, leading to escalation, or even conflict. Should that happen, the stock market could tank.
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Moreover, the leverage in many emerging markets and some advanced economies is clearly excessive. Commercial and residential real estate is far too expensive in many parts of the world. The emerging-market correction in equities, commodities, and fixed-income holdings will continue as global storm clouds gather. And as forward-looking investors start anticipating a growth slowdown in 2020, markets will reprice risky assets by 2019.