Over the next year, "equities will probably continue to go up as we have all these stock buybacks and free cash flow," Minerd told CNBC. But "ultimately, when the chickens come home to roost and we have a recession, we're going to see a lot of pressure on equities especially as defaults rise, and I think once we reach a peak that we'll probably see a 40% retracement in equities."

Merci pour ce magnifique article! Je commence à peine à gérer mes placements en bourse avec un petit montant. Je lis tout ce qui me tombe sous la main et j’apprend par moi-même et me fait une meilleure idée. Par contre je dois avouer que ce qui me tracasse un peu ces derniers jours, c’est le dilemne de metre dans un celi ou reer (je possède les 2) je suis très confus par tout ce que j’entend et lis. Je veux sauver de l’impôt sur le revenu ave mon réer mais en même temps certains diront qur ce n’est que partie remise.
The P/E ratio of the S&P-500 is over 25, something that has only happened three times in history, once during the 1890s, once somewhat before 2000, and once somewhat after 2000. Can’t recall what the big crises was in the 1890s, but in 2001 or so the NASDAQ collapsed, losing about 75% of its value. It has only recently, in unadjusted dollars, surpassed its pre-crash highs.
I recently posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Options for Rookies blog. It's called Advice on Options from a Fellow Who Knows Nothing About Options. You won't see the blog entry if you follow the link. Mark Wolfinger, the owner of the blog, explains why in comments that now appear at the link under the headline "Guest Blog. Deleted." Juicy Excerpt: Permitting this specific guest blogger to post here has opened an unintentional can of worms. I do not want to be involved in his…
(en) The Microstructure of the ‘Flash Crash’: Flow Toxicity, Liquidity Crashes and the Probability of Informed Trading (Microstructuration du « krach éclair » : Toxicité du flux, accidents de liquidité et probabilité de délits d'initié) [archive], David Easley (Cornell University), Marcos López de Prado (Tudor Investment Corp., RCC at Harvard University) et Maureen O'Hara (Cornell University), The Journal of Portfolio Management, vol. 37, no 2, p. 118–128, hiver 2011
Les marchés émergents ont des espérances de rendement plus élevés (avec un risque élevé), donc ceux qui peuvent tolérer ce risque pourrait bénéficier du rendement supplémentaire surtout si on se considère un investisseur à long terme (on a généralement besoin d’un horizon de placement plus long pour profiter pleinement des marchés émergents). Aussi, cela rajoute un effet de diversification.
1) Il y a des périodes où un trader est dans la « Grâce de Dieu » et durant lesquelles il ne semble jamais perdre car il est dans le sens du marché… Cependant il y a également des périodes durant lesquelles le marché semble se retourner « continuellement » contre lui et il perd plus qu’il n’a gagné précédemment. D’où l’importance d’une discipline financière stricte (« stop losses »). Ce n’est pas pour tout le monde… Si votre « Guru » vend des abonnements à $ 100 par mois, il faut se poser la question à savoir ce qui est le plus payant pour lui : son « trading inspiré » ou la vente de ses abonnements individuels ?
This year has been significant in that there have been no wasps. Wasps like many creatures use the Earth’s electromagnetic fields as a navigational motorway. As we are in the flux of some change, wildlife is finding itself at sixes and sevens. As the electromagnetic fields and the gravitational forces increase, there is potential to use this power as a source of energy. This will not only solve the world’s energy problems but put an end to the wars in the Middle East that are caused to exploit Oil and gas resources. It will also stop Putin’s relentless need to control Eastern Europe and beyond. The change in the electromagnetic field will also alter man’s fundamentally left brain thinking to a more right brain creative problem solution thinking that is essentially more rounded and feminine in its notion. My understanding is this is a natural process in the Earth’s cycle. That humanity has been here before is without doubt. There is nothing for humanity to fear. The changes to come are one embrace.
I recently posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Balance Junkie blog titled How to Use Valuation-Informed Indexing -- Part One. Juicy Excerpt: There is one important factor that can never be priced in to your purchase of an index fund — overvaluation. To overvalue a fund is to misprice it. Mispricing by definition can never be factored into the price you pay and must be considered separately. Say that you pay two times the fair price for an income stream of 6 percent real. You obviously are…
Hi Craig, its always nice to come across someone who has a real talent for these things; my only concern is that it just seems like the world is going to hell in a hand basket… What are your thoughts on the development of a the human race over the coming centuries, do your abilities extend this far? if not, will we ever see more peaceful and prosperous times in the next coming years?? if you have already shared these thoughts before I apologise! Take Care
Because stockbrokers tell people, “Don’t try to time the markets.” That works most of the time. But when you get a bubble of this magnitude, “Just hang in there — it will come back; we’ve got to diversify” isn’t going to help. This is a once-in-a-lifetime bubble-burst. Diversification didn’t work in 2008 because when bubbles burst, everything goes down except for cash, high-quality bonds and things like the U.S. dollar.
It is believed that Khashoggi was dismembered after being abducted by the Saudis, and all of the major western powers have expressed major concern about his fate.  But the Saudis insist that they didn’t have anything to do with his disappearance, and they are threatening “greater action” if any sanctions are imposed upon them.  The following comes from USA Today…
Investing Discussion Boards Ban Honest Posting on ValuationsLots of people hate me. There was a time when I was receiving fresh death threats in my e-mail inbox on an almost daily basis. But lots of people love me too. Thousands of my fellow community members have told me that I am the first person who ever described how stock investing works in a way that truly hangs together. This article offers 101 comments of my fellow community members asking the Buy-and-Holders to knock off the funny business and permit civil and reasoned discussion of the last 30 years of peer-reviewed academic research. This article reveals the emotionalism of the Buy-and-Holders and it is the fact that Buy-and-Hold causes such emotionalism that tells me that it can never work in the long run.
Well its a good beginning book for sure however there were a lot of misspelled words that threw me off a few times while reading it. I never had any experience with trading or stocks so it is a good source of information. It does not go into how to really make money in a sense which is what I was looking for. I was hoping there would be more elaboration on what happens after you sell the stock such as can you take the money and put it in a bank after you sell it? what happens when you lose money? Overall read through it in one day probably took 2 hours.
The magazines work months in advance so I made my predictions for 2014 around September and October. Soon after making this one there was a huge fire in Australia. So maybe I was seeing this – but I still feel that what I saw was really unprecedented. Similarly I note that bright light in the sky may be me ‘seeing’ Comet ISON but in my vision I saw something far far brighter in the sky. It would illuminate the whole sky – brighter than the moon.

I am involved with cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology, and believe that they will soon be transformational and liberating. I also hope that my efforts in this space will bring abundance to my own family. With several factors you mention (Sun 6, Uranus 3, desc 5, NN 21 Scorpio; asc 5 and south node 21 Taurus; Mars and IC in Cancer) should I be aggressive in pursuing gains this year? I was timid and defensive in the aftermath of the last financial crisis and paid a big price in terms of missed opportunities. I feel like I’m wiser and more informed now, and want this time to be different.
“It Is Not Just That the Buy-and-Holders Get it Wrong. It Is That the Buy-and-Holders Cannot Tolerate Anyone Else Getting It Right. Buy-and-Holders Attack Those Who Advocate Research-Based Strategies Because, When People Come to See the Merits of Research-Based Strategies, It Makes the Buy-and-Holders Look Bad for Promoting the OPPOSITE of What Works. What Works Is to Always Practice Price Discipline When Buying Stocks. Buy-and-Holders Tell Investors NOT to Exercise Price Discipline (Long-Term Timing). Huh? What the F?”
In January 2013, the British media reported that horse meat had been found in some meat products sold by Tesco, along with other retailers, particularly burgers. Prime Minister David Cameron called this "unacceptable", with products showing 29.1% horse meat in the "Value" range burger, which were supposed to be beef.[152][153] It was later revealed in February 2013 that some of Tesco's Everyday Value Spaghetti Bolognese contained 60% horse meat.[154] Tesco withdrew 26 of its products in response, and announced that they were working with authorities and the supplier to investigate the cause of the contamination.[155]
{} Short-term:  Sun conjunction Mercury in Capricorn, especially if correlating with a conjunction or opposition involving the Sun, Mars, or Jupiter, indicates a sharp turn up in the market beginning 25 days before the Sun/Mercury conjunction.   There was a Sun/Mercury Capricorn conjunction 12/29/13 and a Sun opposition Jupiter 1/5/14.  This prediction was realized with the 2013 market close.
In 2014, Henry Blodget wrote that stocks were 40% overvalued and that he couldn’t find any data to suggest that the market would continue rising. Although he didn’t state that a crash was coming, he did tell us that stocks were likely to give “lousy returns” over the next ten years. He also concluded his article with some technical analysis from John Hussman, which cautioned that the S&P 500 could collapse after it reached 1,900.
First Total Lunar eclipse (partially visible in India) will fall on 31st January 2018 in Cancer ascendant. Cancer is a Watery sign and possesses movable characteristics. Waterrelated problems can trouble India. Stocks of Agro, commodities, grains, tea and FMCG sector companies will be affected. The investors of these sectors are suggested to stay cautious and are advised to book profit at the first sign of weakness.
The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash.
6750 ft up on top of a mountain lends some perspective that’s for sure, The quiet is great for the sole. We still have to work during the week. On the weekends we work for ourselves, gathering firewood learning how to grow food etc. Freedom at least for me is eliminating the need for outside inputs. We have just enough solar power to be comfortable running our house. Woodstove for heat, well for our water. Growing some vegetables for food. Every year is easier than the year before.
6750 ft up on top of a mountain lends some perspective that’s for sure, The quiet is great for the sole. We still have to work during the week. On the weekends we work for ourselves, gathering firewood learning how to grow food etc. Freedom at least for me is eliminating the need for outside inputs. We have just enough solar power to be comfortable running our house. Woodstove for heat, well for our water. Growing some vegetables for food. Every year is easier than the year before.
Despite being in a recession, Tesco made record profits for a British retailer in the year to February 2010, during which its underlying pre-tax profits increased by 10.1% to £3.4 billion. Tesco then planned to create 16,000 new jobs, 9,000 in the UK.[107] In 2011 the retailer reported its poorest six-monthly UK sales figures for 20 years, attributed to consumers' reduced non-food spending and a growth in budget rivals.[108]

It’s not going to create 4% [GDP] growth. Business might feel good for a couple of quarters, but there isn’t anything to build on. You can give companies a trillion dollars, but what are they going to do with it? Just buy back stock and pay dividends to their shareholders. They don’t need to expand. We’ve got excess supply here and around the world. We don’t need businesses to invest in a lot of new capacity. We already did that in the boom.
Governments and economists have discovered that these outbreaks can be fought. They can be fought by replacing the lost spending directly (that is, by having the government pick up the slack) but also by persuading everyone that their worry is misplaced, that things are actually fine, and that they should go back to being cheerful and optimistic. Central banks do this by having public policy targets that they promise to hit and by announcing the policy steps they take to hit them (like changes in interest rates). Keeping an economy out of recession, in other words, is in large part a matter of psychology. It is about coordinating everyone’s expectations, so that everyone believes the economy will continue to chug along—and that any stumble will quickly and adeptly be managed by governments and central banks.

So, the way to prepare for a market crash is not necessarily to artfully predict in advance, and step aside when the crash comes. That's virtually impossible. Rather, it can be useful to consider your overall investment strategy ahead of time, so that you know you could stomach the next inevitable crash when it comes. Ideally, through proper diversification and forethought you'll have an investment approach that will enable you to ride out a crash, rather than turning you into another panicked seller. If you only act on these issues when the crash comes, it will likely be too late.
J’ai 42 ans et j’en suis à mon cinquième conseiller financier. J’ai finalement trouver le bon, qui même à 2.5% de frais, me fait quand même « performer » mon portefeuille dans les alentours de 9% à 11% net de frais. A ces rendements, j’ai aucun problème à donner une somme plus importante à mon conseiller. Je n’ai pas le temps et les connaissances pour obtenir ce genre de rendement. Je suis relativement encore jeune(:)) et mon approche est très aggressive donc en retour j’espère une performance minimum.

Si vous placez votre argent à l’aide d’un conseiller robot, vous n’aurez pas à vous poser de questions. Cependant, en faisant le courtage en ligne, vous devrez rebalancer votre portefeuille ponctuellement. À titre d’exemple, si les actions canadiennes performent mieux que celles américaines, la proportion qu’elles occupent dans votre portefeuille va augmenter. Ainsi, vous devrez rééquilibrer la répartition géographique de vos placements. Pour ce faire, il suffit d’adapter les prochains achats d’actions en conséquence (moins d’actions canadiennes, plus d’actions américaines).
Despite being in a recession, Tesco made record profits for a British retailer in the year to February 2010, during which its underlying pre-tax profits increased by 10.1% to £3.4 billion. Tesco then planned to create 16,000 new jobs, 9,000 in the UK.[107] In 2011 the retailer reported its poorest six-monthly UK sales figures for 20 years, attributed to consumers' reduced non-food spending and a growth in budget rivals.[108]
I've posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Hope to Prosper site called How Has Buy-and-Hold Survived So Long? Juicy Excerpt:  There are now thousands of books promoting Buy-and-Hold. There are hundreds of calculators promoting Buy-and-Hold. There are thousands of experts who made their reputations promoting Buy-and-Hold. In short, there are lots of powerful people and institutions with a strong financial interest in promoting the failed strategy rather than its…

Good harvests had built up a mass of 250 million bushels of wheat to be "carried over" when 1929 opened. By May there was also a winter-wheat crop of 560 million bushels ready for harvest in the Mississippi Valley. This oversupply caused a drop in wheat prices so heavy that the net incomes of the farming population from wheat were threatened with extinction. Stock markets are always sensitive to the future state of commodity markets, and the slump in Wall Street predicted for May by Sir George Paish arrived on time. In June 1929, the position was saved by a severe drought in the Dakotas and the Canadian West, plus unfavorable seed times in Argentina and eastern Australia. The oversupply would now be wanted to fill the big gaps in the 1929 world wheat production. From 97¢ per bushel in May, the price of wheat rose to $1.49 in July. When it was seen that at this figure American farmers would get rather more for their smaller crop than for that of 1928, stocks went up again.


These five tech and consumer service giants have accounted for a significant portion of the S&P 500’s and Invesco QQQ Trust’s gains in recent years. Further, data from Bloomberg finds that the original FANG stocks (minus Apple) are slated to grow sales at an average rate of 36% in the second quarter, which is four times faster than the average S&P 500 company.  However, the FAANG stocks aren’t impervious to a change of heart.
At this stage, several roadblocks arise. First, there’s the issue of platform scale to consider. A meme might begin its life on Twitter, then move over to Facebook, or it might begin on Tumblr and migrate to Instagram. Some platforms won’t intersect; a meme may live out its entire existence on 4chan, never to feel the warm rush of a mother’s Facebook share. But the size of a platform can have a huge impact on how many times a meme is posted. Just because a particular meme had the good fortune to exist on Facebook instead of on Tumblr, does that mean it’s inherently more “valuable” than a Tumblr-only meme?
Dear Sir, let me comment on your prediction that by ‘by 2025 millions will have forsaken Islam’ sounds very odd and far from the actual truth. As a matter of fact as I see it Islam, the pure and authentic Abrahamic Divine Creed will strive and will be embraced by a vast majority of people of good will and those who really believe in submission to the Divine Will of our Creator and the unique and all- merciful God! Mark my words: The salvation of humanity lies in abiding by, Islamic Monotheism and it will happen between 2017-2021.

Johnson's advice rings true regardless of whether or not you DIY or hire somebody to manage your wealth for you. In this article, we’re going to lay out some of the ways people can give themselves a crash course in investing. But first, it should be noted that to avoid feeling overwhelmed you should pick an area that interests you and start there. For example, do you want to learn more about real estate investing? Then stick to that and avoid everything else for now.


3. How long is this correction and when will it be a good time to resume trading safely? There will be a POSITIVE transit coming on *March 14th*, so there is a strong possibility that things will start to pick up speed by then. Once again, the rule of 10 days applies here so start watching closely from early March on. At the time of [editing] this article (February 23, 2018), we are going through a slow uptrend recovery, so I will be keeping an eye on the stocks starting a few days from now, by end of February.
In 1918, world flu epidemic, as the Red Beast formed in Russia with the Russian Revolution (the beginning of the Antichrist's Evil Empire in Russia). And a bird flu virus infecting chickens and birds in Asia is a concern, since it could mutate and combine with swine flu and become a human pandemic. The Swine Flu virus spreading in 2018 - 2019 could combine with Bird Flu, creating a more deadly virus.
In 2016 for my 2017 predictions made through the Sun Newspaper online I correctly predicted a Tory Government but did not foresee the comeback of Jeremy Corbyn. My main prediction was that there would arise a new political party made up of politicians from all of the other parties. This has not happened yet but it has become a serious issue that is now in the news. I believe this will continue to become a news story and we will eventually see a new party formed. I also spoke about a landmark going up in flames in London. I saw this to be the Houses of Parliament but I was wrong about this. However, there was a huge fire in a landmark building with the Grenfell tower fire and some have commented here that this is probably what I ‘saw’. Others have said that this could be a symbol for the Westminster Bridge terrorist attacks.
Welcome to the July 2012 Carnival of Passive Investing, a monthly collection of the best and most intelligent Passive Investing strategy articles around the internet. Some people foolishly want to beat the market (want being the key word) but we just want to invest with it. The purpose of the carnival is two-fold: To provide a forum to showcase articles and research in passive investing strategies (i.e. investing in ETFs, index mutual funds, etc. in such a way that one avoids…
My main predictions in this area made in 2016 for 2017 was that North Korea would become the focus of world attention and conflict. My main prediction about this last year said: “Kim Jong-un will be fall from power later in the year – maybe December 2017 or January 2018” I know it looks like we are on the brink of war but my feeling is that he will be deposed by his own people.  This remains part of my predictions for the time ahead. I also spoke of an arms race happening in the Far East and provocation from China forcing Japan to initiate an arms race. We saw provocations from China so this prediction is still on the cards. I also predicted a “serious threat of escalating conflict between China and India” – which has happened.
Moreover, the leverage in many emerging markets and some advanced economies is clearly excessive. Commercial and residential real estate is far too expensive in many parts of the world. The emerging-market correction in equities, commodities, and fixed-income holdings will continue as global storm clouds gather. And as forward-looking investors start anticipating a growth slowdown in 2020, markets will reprice risky assets by 2019.
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