Oil price spikes have contributed to every recession since World War II by sapping consumer purchasing power, according to Moody’s. U.S. benchmark crude oil prices of about $65 a barrel are up from a low of about $26 in early 2016 and $59 early this year but well below the $112 reached in 2014. And average gasoline prices are just under $3 a gallon compared with more than $4 four years ago.
You might be wondering if we’ve endured one too many ghost apparitions. To suggest that no less than Warren Buffett, whose net worth is north of $80.0 billion, expects the market to reverse its bullish course seems not just scary, it seems silly. But Warren Buffett’s predictions for 2018 call for at least a market correction—if not an outright crash.
But here’s the thing about AFund: The A stands for “Astrologers.” It’s run by an antic, charming 70-year-old named Henry Weingarten who says he gleans insight from charting the movements of celestial bodies. Today’s event isn’t technically about astrology, but like everything in the universe, it probably is. “Sixty to 70 percent of what I do is in the natural resource space,” Weingarten tells me after lunch at the club, holding a glass of red wine. “I think it’s because I’m a Leo. And effectively, as a Leo, I have an affinity for gold.”
The racial composition of stock market ownership shows households headed by whites are nearly four and six times as likely to directly own stocks than households headed by blacks and Hispanics respectively. As of 2011 the national rate of direct participation was 19.6%, for white households the participation rate was 24.5%, for black households it was 6.4% and for Hispanic households it was 4.3% Indirect participation in the form of 401k ownership shows a similar pattern with a national participation rate of 42.1%, a rate of 46.4% for white households, 31.7% for black households, and 25.8% for Hispanic households. Households headed by married couples participated at rates above the national averages with 25.6% participating directly and 53.4% participating indirectly through a retirement account. 14.7% of households headed by men participated in the market directly and 33.4% owned stock through a retirement account. 12.6% of female headed households directly owned stock and 28.7% owned stock indirectly.
Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: Can we count on you for discussing the death threats and job threats over on this new board as well? I never lead with the death threats and the job threats. The substantive stuff is what matters most and people hate to hear about the death threats and the job threats. But as a society we have to deal with the death threats and job threats before the substantive stuff can get widely known. Shiller published his “revolutionary” (his word) research 37 years ago. The obvious question that anyone asks when someone tells them about the realities of stock investing is: “Why haven’t I heard about this before?” It’s not possible to explain the 37-year cover-up without making reference to the death threats and job threats. It’s not possible to pull something like this off without death threats and job threats. There are other things that help to explain the 37-year cover-up. Cognitive dissonance is a big one. The counter-intuitive nature of some of the realities. Just the fact that we don’t know it all. Ignorance. That’s a factor that should not be overlooked. I talk about that stuff. I don’t talk only about death threats and job threats. I never have and I never will. My job is to tell the story. Death threats and job threats are part of the story. So I will tell about them when necessary and to the extent necessary. I try not to put too much emphasis on them. Because they are not the entire story. I try to give them the right amount of attention, not too much and not too little. I wish that there had never been any death threats or job threats. But that’s not the world we live in. That’s not the reality. We don’t get fewer death threats and fewer job threats by ignoring them, by never talking about them. Ignoring them causes us to see more death threats and more job threats. I am 100 percent sure. Our problem has not been that we have talked too little about death threats and job threats. By not talking about those that have taken place, we have caused more of them to take place. Which is of course not the way that any of […]
Also, the Astrological events of August 1999 (a solar eclipse seen in Europe and a rare alignment of planets in a cross shape) is discussed. Possible Antichrist sighting: I think the Antichrist is the Russian President elected in March 2000, Vlad Putin, and the Red Dragon that Putin the Antichrist will be allied with is China, as well as Iran. And the planetary alignment of 5/5/2000 with the sun and planets on one side of the earth is discussed, note that Vladimir Putin was inaugurated as President of Russia 2 days later on May 7, 2000. And on November 4 2003 there was the largest solar flare ever seen, when Putin was in Rome, and on Nov. 8 there was a lunar eclipse and a grand sextile hexagon shaped astrology pattern, again indicating Putin is the Antichrist; apparently Putin visiting Rome, which is connected with the Antichrist in Bible prophecy, resulted in a tremendous Satanic force that resulted in the giant solar flare on Nov. 4 2003, see this page. And the possibility of a doomsday asteroid or comet collision with earth is discussed, note that in 2002 there were several asteroid near-misses with earth; and a King James Bible Code matrix may predict an asteroid hit in the ocean within a few years, causing a giant tidal wave. A suggestion: a great economic stimulus project would be to build an asteroid defense for earth, for a few billion $ NASA could build an asteroid defense using interceptor rockets, and this would create jobs in the U.S..
Indeed, Tesla’s performance has all the makings of a stock market crash chart to reflect the irrational exuberance of 2018. Investors have pushed Tesla’s stock market valuation to such a degree that it has infected the healthiest hedge fund. It’s a one-stock Black Monday warning! Note the Tesla stock market chart. It’s moving on hope and expectations alone; every time the quarter results are released, the stock tends to drop.
Jones is widely credited with predicting, and profiting, from the stock-market crash on Oct. 19, 1987, which saw the Dow lose nearly 23% of its value, marking the largest one-day percentage decline for the blue-chip benchmark in its history. Jones founded Tudor in 1980 and became known for trading everything from currencies to commodities. His record has featured middling returns and an exodus of billions from his hedge fund in more recent years. According to a Forbes list of billionaires, Jones boasts a net worth of $4.7 billion
That was six years ago. Funnily enough, the author of this blog, David Haggith, recently posted an article titled I Bet My Blog on a 2018 Economic Collapse. Basically, he is going to throw sh*t at the wall until something finally sticks – then he’ll pontificate to everyone about how his prediction was correct. It is worth noting that he also predicted that 2016 would be the year of the economic apocalypse and that he was “fairly sure” that stocks would slump in January, 2017.
The recession projection is based largely on interest rate expectations using two criteria, according to Freddy Martino, a Vanguard spokesman. One is what economists refer to as a flattening yield curve, with the Federal Reserve expected to raise shorter-term rates faster than longer-term ones. The other is rising credit risk for below-investment-grade bonds.
Set forth below are links to seven Guest Blog Entries that I wrote on the Valuation-Informed Indexing strategy: 1) A Better and Safer Way to Invest in Stocks, at the Free From Broke site; 2) The Five Big Benefits of Valuation-Informed Indexing, at the Canadian Finance Blog site; 3) Stock Investing Is a Political Act, at the Balance Junkie site; 4) The Coming Revolution in Our Understanding of How Stock Investing Works, at the My Personal Finance Journey site; 5) Are Investing…
I read your 2015 predictions a week or two ago, and now I see your Paris terrorist prediction has come true (sadly). Has anything else that is positive come to you since you made your 2015 predictions some months ago, for Australia or the World? Also – I don’t suppose you do any personal requests? I would love to know about my 2015 after some very challenging years.
I was hoping that you wouldn’t predict about India-Pakistan conflict this year. That’s because I had heard from somebody else several months ago about Pakistan and China together attacking India in 2018, and was hoping that he was wrong. Is it going to be a war or is it going to be a small conflict? God may mitigate the situation but to what extent? I live in India, not too far from Pakistani border. I’m wondering if I should start packing my bags.
Jesazzzz Koverist. This means that post calapse, the city air will be unbreathable from all the garbage, rotting and decaying stinking dead bodies all over all the major cities, meaning that, the DUMB-F…k survivors, these are the New Preppers, who were not preppers, who jus scavenged, tore up the restaurants, fast food joints, distribution centers, possible white, middle class, people who laughed at us prepper types, who went, damn, lets get all the food and water now, we are clearing the f…k out of town to the country. Now we can see if we awesome preppers who were able to GTFOT, GET THE F… OUT OF TOWN TYPES. then we preppers can see literally, get this millions, 50,000,000 plus, fleeing the cities, jamed up on the freeways with Jade Helm 15, russian and chinses soldiers at check points grabbing people, shooting the men point blank range and grabbing women and children off the freeways, gun ships and drones all the sky, tanks, and other military equipment suddenly rolled out on the streets of all the major cities shooting the men on all the major freeways in all the major cities. Trapped Patriots, veterans and Local Red Necks and new Freedom fighters of all races, black, white, hispanic, asain and other unreconizable nationals that we dont or cant tell wtf? there are, now engaged in gun battles against one another. The kind of situation, that even tough guys like myself litterally loose bladder control, and piss my pants at the mere taught of it. As we literally witness the first stage of calapse.
(Bloomberg) -- At Dwarika’s Resort, a holistic wellness retreat in Nepal’s Eastern Kathmandu Valley, I sat in a wooden library across from famed astrologer Santosh Vashistha, a distinguished 42-year-old in a plaid sport coat with remnants of festive red tika adorning his forehead. His piercing eyes are almost as captivating as the view of the distant Himalayas through the wide picture window behind him.
By 2014, Tesco appeared to have lost some of its appeal to customers. The share price lost 49 per cent of its value up to October as it struggled to fend off competition from rivals Aldi and Lidl. In October 2014, Tesco suspended 8 executives following its announcement the previous month that it had previously overstated its profits by £250 million. The misreporting resulted in almost £2.2 billion being wiped off the value of the company’s stock market value. The suspended executives included former commercial director Kevin Grace and UK managing director Chris Bush. The profit overstatement was subsequently revised upwards to £263 million following an investigation by the accountancy firm Deloitte, and it was clarified that the inflated profit figure was the result of Tesco bringing forward rebates from suppliers. The Serious Fraud Office (SFO) confirmed on 29 October 2014 that it was carrying out a criminal investigation into the accounting irregularities but declined to give further details.
I have the overwhelming feeling that California is going to have a mass earthquake that will split the state not just in the San Francisco area but in Los Angeles as well. I’m a native of the state and the last time I went back to visit family, I could hardly wait to leave. If there is an earthquake in China, I predict it will start a ripple effect. Had this feeling for 2 years now. Hope I’m wrong.
Selling intensified in mid-October. On October 24 ("Black Thursday"), the market lost 11 percent of its value at the opening bell on very heavy trading. The huge volume meant that the report of prices on the ticker tape in brokerage offices around the nation was hours late, so investors had no idea what most stocks were actually trading for at that moment, increasing panic. Several leading Wall Street bankers met to find a solution to the panic and chaos on the trading floor. The meeting included Thomas W. Lamont, acting head of Morgan Bank; Albert Wiggin, head of the Chase National Bank; and Charles E. Mitchell, president of the National City Bank of New York. They chose Richard Whitney, vice president of the Exchange, to act on their behalf.
"Sornette's book is not just about finance and economics; it is also a mesmerizing introduction to game theory, fractals, catastrophe theory, critical phenomena, and much more. No prior knowledge of finance or economics is needed to understand the book. . . . Throughout the book, Sornette makes numerous, vivid comparisons with many other fields in which the various mathematical tools he describes can be applied."---Frank Cuypers, , Physics Today
I do not hold positions in these investments. No recommendations are made by me one way or the other. If you're an investor, you'd want to look much deeper into each of these situations. You can lose money trading or investing in stocks. Always do your own independent research, due diligence and seek professional advice from a licensed investment advisor.
The AFR has got its hands on the thoughts of Nouriel Roubini via a mob called The Project Syndicate, which is headquartered in Prague, Czechoslovakia, of all places. And this is how it describes itself: “A syndicate is a group of individuals or organizations combined to promote a common interest. In the case of Project Syndicate, these individuals are activists, Nobel laureates, economists, political thinkers, business leaders, and the likes from around the world.”
In the next 10-15 years the market will go through such major transformations economists/brokers/bankers and financial people won’t recognize it as the same entity it once was. I think we will see instability for a long time as the market re-organizes, and gets restructured under Pluto’s influence. Which means during this long period we may see wild fluctuations as new things become uncovered, and new laws are put in place to shore up the bleeding.
A few days earlier, Weingarten subscribed me to his weekly market forecasting newsletter, whose major insight lately has been: “US MARKETS ARE ‘EASY’ IF YOU REMEMBER THAT TRUMP’S 2018 HOROSCOPE IS STELLAR.” I ask Weingarten what that means. He responds by chronicling his rise from fledgling East Village astrologer to financial oracle, from his prediction of the 1990 crash in Japan to his glorious 2016, in which he was long on a Trump victory and the market rally to follow. I ask the same question maybe five more times before he clarifies that he had seen a “double Jupiter” in Trump’s horoscope, “which was a big win.” This year “he has a Jupiter-Neptune.” Which means? “It means he’s going to win.” Which tells us what about U.S. markets? It tells us they will win. “Jupiter means winning. Win! Win! Win!”
Many of the traditional religions, that are dependent on blind belief, will fail and more people will seek direct experience of the spiritual realms. By 2025 millions of people would have forsaken Islam. By this time Christianity too would have undergone a spiritual metamorphosis that will encourage people to seek a direct personal experience of spirituality through prayer and meditation. The years ahead will be a tremendous time to be living on earth for I believe that great things are soon to be revealed to the world. By 2050 the world will have entered the Golden Age when higher consciousness and miraculous living are possible. The time will come when all people will come to realize that our personal future and the collective future of the world can be changed for the better by our good thoughts and actions.
Over the next year, "equities will probably continue to go up as we have all these stock buybacks and free cash flow," Minerd told CNBC. But "ultimately, when the chickens come home to roost and we have a recession, we're going to see a lot of pressure on equities especially as defaults rise, and I think once we reach a peak that we'll probably see a 40% retracement in equities."
Anaconda, Friday, and Memes: 500 5000 500 BUSINESS THE DOW DROP 4000 Feb 6 | The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted the largest-ever point decline yesterday. The Dow Jones, a stock market index of publicly-traded companies based in the U.S., posted its largest-ever, single-day decline of more than 1,100 points. Since Friday, the Dow has dropped a total of 7%. This is the largest percent decline since August of 2011. ____ Photo: WSJ Market Data Group
Ekansh Mittal, Research Analyst, Katalyst Wealth, said market movement is like a pendulum; it keeps swinging between extremes. In 2017 and early 2018, smallcaps and midcaps were approaching higher extremes and now smallcaps and midcaps are approaching lower extremes. While one cannot predict market tops or bottoms, one can prepare and sow the seeds for future gains.”
Fifth, growth in the rest of the world will likely slow down – more so as other countries will see fit to retaliate against US protectionism. China must slow its growth to deal with overcapacity and excessive leverage; otherwise a hard landing will be triggered. And already-fragile emerging markets will continue to feel the pinch from protectionism and tightening monetary conditions in the US.