The stock market boomed because, since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, the Federal Reserve Bank (“Fed”) has kept interest rates close to 0% (the infamous ZIRP or Zero Interest Rate Policy). So, from December 2008 to December 2015 – for 7 years – corporations were borrowing trillions of dollars and buying back their own shares! Hence the stock market boom.
However, none were right at the 74% threshold which makes market timing profitable. Remember, being right 66% of the time isn’t going to be as profitable as staying invested for three reasons. One, you will need to hold money in cash when you think a crash is coming. Two, when you are sometimes wrong (the 33%+ of the time) you are missing out on good gains from those days when markets soar. Three, you will be accumulating costs, including trading costs and tax from selling.
Corruption in the Investing Advice Field — The Wade Pfau StoryThis article provides links to all of my reports on my 16 months of correspondence with Academic Researcher Wade Pfau, the collaboration that produced the research we co-authored that shows millions of middle-class investors how to reduce the risk of stock investing by 70 percent (Ssshh! The Wall Street Con Men don’t want this one getting out!) If you retain doubts re whether Valuation-Informed Indexing is a real thing, looking over the materials available at this page and then reading a few of the reports that strike you as particularly important will dispel them. I believe that Wade will someday win a Nobel prize for the work he did here. The reports show his own skepticism and his transformed into excited BELIEVER in the Valuation-Informed Indexing concept.
On May 6, 2010, the stock market was having a pretty negative day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by over 300 points with just over an hour left in the trading session. At approximately 2:42 p.m. EST, the market dropped by another 600 points in five minutes. Keep in mind that the Dow was only at about 10,500 at the time, so this was a big drop, percentage-wise.
There are examples of it working. “Astrology is one of the finest market-timing tools available in pinpointing dates of tradable market highs or lows,” said Raymond Merriman, author of the series Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing: Geocosmic Correlations to Investment Cycles, and president of Merriman Market Analyst Inc. It works best for traders looking to enter and exit positions within three days to six months, not long-term investors, he said—that’s because planetary relationships, known as aspects, are more accurate in the short term. (His predictions cost $3,600 per year and reach 900 subscribers.)
By the end of the weekend of November 11, the index stood at 228, a cumulative drop of 40% from the September high. The markets rallied in succeeding months, but it was a temporary recovery that led unsuspecting investors into further losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 89% of its value before finally bottoming out in July 1932. The crash was followed by the Great Depression, the worst economic crisis of modern times, which plagued the stock market and Wall Street throughout the 1930s.
Blague à part, même si vous gérez vous-même vos placements, je pense que les planificateurs financiers ont encore un rôle à jouer. Ils peuvent vous encadrer quant aux aspects légaux, aux assurances, à la fiscalité, à la gestion du risque, à la planification de la retraite, à la succession et aux placements (pour ceux qui ont les accréditations nécessaires). Bien qu’ils soient payés à la commission sur la vente de produits financiers, leurs rôles débordent largement de celui du simple conseiller en placement. Ainsi, les frais de gestion et le rendement des placements ne sont pas les seuls éléments à considérer. Plusieurs services valables, qui méritent une rémunération, sont également offerts.
The aspiring financial astrologer must first grasp the basics of regular astrology. Everything revolves around the zodiac calendar, a 360-degree belt of sky, drawn from the perspective of Earth, organized into 12 30-degree wedges. These are called Libra and Taurus and so forth. A person’s horoscope sign thus corresponds to the month of the zodiac calendar through which the sun appears to be “moving” around Earth when she was born. (Which makes astrology geocentric. Never mind Copernicus.)
The FOMC is composed of the Federal Reserve’s seven-member Board of Governors, the president of the New York Fed, and four presidents from the other 11 Federal Reserve Banks on a rotating basis. All 12 Federal Reserve Banks are corporations, the stock of which is 100% owned by the banks in their districts; and New York is the district of Wall Street. The Board of Governors currently has four vacancies, leaving the member banks in majority control of the FOMC. Wall Street calls the shots; and Wall Street stands to make a bundle off rising interest rates.
“They’ve never seen a sell-off like this, and it’s especially scary because they don’t know who to ask for advice — they may not have a relationship with a financial adviser they can call or text to walk them back from the cliff,” said Jason Dorsey, president of The Center for Generational Kinetics, a research firm. “For many of them, it’s been a pretty rude awakening.”
I recently posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Budgeting in the Fun Stuff blog. It's called The Last Days of Stock Investing Risk. Juicy Excerpt: You can never eliminate risk entirely because short-term returns are not at all predictable. But there is now 33 years of peer-reviewed research showing that long-term returns are highly predictable for those who consider valuations. Risk is optional! Go with a high stock allocation when prices are low, a moderate stock allocation when prices are at…
The JPMorgan model calculates outcomes based on the length of the economic expansion, the potential duration of the next recession, the degree of leverage, asset-price valuations and the level of deregulation and financial innovation before the crisis. Assuming an average-length recession, the model came up with the following peak-to-trough performance estimates for different asset classes in the next crisis, according to the note.
I've posted a Guest Blog Entry at the My Personal Finance Journey blog titled The Coming Revolution in Our Understanding of How Stock Investing Works. Juicy Excerpt: If the market is efficient both in the short-term and in the long-term, Buy-and-Hold is the perfect strategy. The only way to capture the high returns of stocks is to be heavily invested in them and, since there is no way to predict returns, the only thing to do is to remain heavily invested in stocks at all times. However,…
May i please request you to have a look at my husband’s chart. His date of birth is 18 MAY 1964. Previously he used to work in a very big company very reputable also. He handled big projects and was very good in his job. Then in 2008 we registered a small company and started working together I was a full time mum before and now my boys are grown up. There has been ups and downs but we managed it until but recently when it has been quite difficult financially to have a salary at the end of the month. Sorry for being so long but wish you could tell us whats going to happen to us .
La plus grande opportunité depuis 2008, c’était d’investir en 2009, en 2010, puis en 2011, 2012,2013, 2014 etc… il y a eu un crash monumental en 2008. Tout a au moins doublé depuis ce qui donne l’impression qu’on est de bons investisseurs mais…. un jour ou l’autre la tendance s’inversera et comme le dit Warren Buffett, « we’ll see who’s swimming naked when the tide goes out ».
Bernanke said in March 2007 that the sub-prime mortgage mess could be “contained.” And Greenspan famously inveighed against the stock market’s “irrational exuberance” in 1996. If you listened to him then and exited stocks, you would rue your decision: The market had a fabulous run for the next four years. Rogers is a perma-bear about domestic stocks, who has been downbeat since the 1980s (he is famously enthusiastic about emerging markets, though).