Because they’ve got the frackers sitting on them. Every time oil gets back to $50 or $60, the frackers start cranking up again, and then they get excess supply. The Saudi princes are saying we’ll never see $100 oil again, and I agree — or at least not for a very, very long time. I see oil at pretty much between $20 and $60 for decades. And we won’t see natural gas at $14 again — because of fracking.
La plupart du temps, les robot-conseillers utilisent des FNB. Et, les FNB sont composés de milliers de titres d’entreprises. Ainsi, ils reflètent le rendement du marché dans son ensemble. Ce rendement est similaire à celui des fonds communs, sur le long terme. Je me méfierais donc sérieusement des planificateurs financiers qui disent pouvoir constamment battre le marché. Donc, à mon avis, cet argument ne tient pas la route.
Stock market crashes are usually caused by more than one factor. In fact, there are often two sets of reasons for a crash. One set of conditions creates the environment for the sell-off, and another set of factors triggers the beginning of the sell-off. Just because there is a market bubble, it doesn’t mean the market will crash. Usually something needs to occur to cause investors to begin selling and buyers to step away from the stock market.
Jump up ^ Goetzmann, William N.; Rouwenhorst, K. Geert (2008). The History of Financial Innovation, in Carbon Finance, Environmental Market Solutions to Climate Change. (Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, chapter 1, pp. 18–43). As Goetzmann & Rouwenhorst (2008) noted, "The 17th and 18th centuries in the Netherlands were a remarkable time for finance. Many of the financial products or instruments that we see today emerged during a relatively short period. In particular, merchants and bankers developed what we would today call securitization. Mutual funds and various other forms of structured finance that still exist today emerged in the 17th and 18th centuries in Holland."
The Warren Buffett Indicator is less mysterious than it sounds. It might as well be called the common-sense indicator. It’s simply the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP)—or the sum total of a country’s economic activity—and the value of stocks in the S&P 500. So, in simpler terms, the Warren Buffett Indicator in terms of Wall Street measures market capitalization versus U.S. GDP. (Source: “Why Warren Buffett Is Betting Against Warren Buffett,” Seeking Alpha, October 24, 2017.)
Thank you. Fortuna at 0 Scorpio in your chart will be opposed by Uranus at 0 Taurus from May 2018 with a repeat in early 2019. That is the moment to realise there are no ‘givens’ with money or property sometimes and you just have to adapt and adjust. The right attitude will be ‘that was then, this is now’ and to move quickly with the times, as the old way of banking, borrowing money and looking at credit will no longer apply. Try to embrace the randomness for the time that it is there. Your husband will have a lump sum to enjoy this year.
Le crash éclair du 6 mai 2010 a d'abord été expliqué comme une réaction à la crise de la dette souveraine grecque10 avant d'être rapidement imputé à une erreur de saisie de la part d'un opérateur de marché (une erreur communément appelée dans le jargon financier « fat finger » (gros doigt en français), correspondant à la saisie erronée d'une quantité largement supérieure au montant voulu). La CNBC ainsi que d'autres sources journalistiques ont déclaré qu'un trader avait saisi un ordre de vente de titres Procter & Gamble avec un « B » pour billions (milliards en français) au lieu de « M » pour millions. Cette information a été jugée crédible, le titre Procter & Gamble entrant dans la composition de l'indice Dow Jones ayant vu son cours chuter de plus de 37 %. La banque américaine Citigroup fut désignée comme responsable de cette erreur de saisie.
According to Citigroup retail analyst David McCarthy, "[Tesco has] pulled off a trick that I'm not aware of any other retailer achieving. That is to appeal to all segments of the market". One plank of this strategy has been Tesco's use of its own-brand products, including the upmarket "Finest", mid-range Tesco brand and low-price "Value" encompassing several product categories such as food, beverage, home, clothing, Tesco Mobile and financial services.
I’m glad I saw the fingerprint for you – for a moment I thought it was because so much of Sherlock Holmes was written in this London house! Uranus at 3 Taurus, opposite Uranus at 3 Scorpio, seems likely to bring in your profession in identity and security systems. I am sure you are completely on top of changes in your field, but make it your business to be across everything, with more concentration and awareness than usual. This also applies very much to 2019 as Uranus will take a couple of years to cross 0, 1, 2, 3 Taurus. This is most certainly about your work, because you were born with Juno (commitments) at 3 Virgo in your Sixth House, which rules your job. Putting all that together, you need to go deeply into the new realities of online identity and security from the middle of May, which will be a tremendous shock for millions of us, right around the world. The story develops across 2019, and possibly into 2020, and I do think you’ll have to reshape your career as a result of it. Don’t be worried. Do be interested and informed. We will see Jupiter (expansion, growth, opportunity) slowly make trines to your Taurus and Virgo placements once he changes signs at the end of 2019, and I think 2020 could be your year professionally, but it would be as a result of what you learn – and what you do – in response to the whole new world of internet banking, and global taxation. Time to start reading those financial and business newspapers as never before. And tech. Watch Fakebook.
(2) A key sign in 1998-99 that could relate to the arrival of the Antichrist was on April 23, 1998, (and also Feb. 23, 1999) when the planet Venus approached close to Jupiter in the sky. Jupiter relates to the Antichrist, because Jupiter and Thor (the Scandinavian equivalent) are said to control lightning and thunder, and the Antichrist is said to bring "fire down from heaven", which sounds like lightning. Venus having a close conjunction to Jupiter could mean Jupiter is "lit" by the close approach of Venus. There was a similar but much closer approach of Venus to Jupiter on June 17, 2 B.C., near the time of birth of Christ; the 2 planets actually appeared to merge in the sky. This could have accounted for the Star of Bethlehem legend; the 3 wise men were Astrologers, and such an unusual planetary conjunction would have had great significance for them. So, these similar conjunctions in 1998 and 1999, and on February 1 2008 a close approach of Venus and Jupiter to within .5 degree, could mean the Antichrist rose to power in 2000 and I think he is Russian President Putin. And note that on May 17, 2000 Venus and Jupiter also had a very close conjunction, only 4' apart, but were too close to the morning sun to be seen. And note that on Nov. 4, 2004, Venus passed within .6 degree of Jupiter. Also on July 1 2015 there was a close conjunction in the sky of Venus and Jupiter, and on on October 28 2015 a close conjunction of Venus, Jupiter, and Mars.
Merci pour ce magnifique article! Je commence à peine à gérer mes placements en bourse avec un petit montant. Je lis tout ce qui me tombe sous la main et j’apprend par moi-même et me fait une meilleure idée. Par contre je dois avouer que ce qui me tracasse un peu ces derniers jours, c’est le dilemne de metre dans un celi ou reer (je possède les 2) je suis très confus par tout ce que j’entend et lis. Je veux sauver de l’impôt sur le revenu ave mon réer mais en même temps certains diront qur ce n’est que partie remise.
Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: Rob, If these “goons” never existed, how do you think your life would have been different, other than the loss of mild entertainment? That’s like asking an oncologist how his life would have been different if cancer had never existed. In one sense, it would have been better. The oncologist devotes his human energies to defeating cancer, just as I devote my human energies to defeating the Get Rich Quick urge that animates the Buy-and-Hold strategy. So there is a sense in which the oncologist sees cancer as the enemy. But he doesn’t avoid cancer in the way that he might avoid some other enemies. He goes looking for people who have cancer to see if he can help them. He reads all that he can about new developments in the treatment of cancer. He wants to know everything about cancer so that he can do a better job eradicating it (because he loves people and cancer hurts people). So do I want to know everything about goonishness/Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold thinking because I want to eradicate it (because goonishness/Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold thinking hurts people and I love people). Does that help at all? I like you Goons as people, Anonymous. For all sorts of reasons. Because I learn from you, for one. But I believe strongly that, if you were thinking clearly, you would work hard to rein in your Goon inclinations. Because those Goon inclinations hurt you in very, very serious ways. You need to know how stock investing works. We all do. But you have made a decision never to listen to the 10 percent of the population that believes that Shiller’s research is legitimate research because those people say things that make you feel uncomfortable. I don’t apologize for making you feel uncomfortable. I think that there are circumstances in which we must live through a measure of discomfort to get to a better place and to experience lots of exciting, wonderful stuff. The words that I direct at you are aimed at helping you to find your way to that place or at helping others find their way to that place in the event that you elect not to go there and others elect to visit this site in the hopes of […]
First Total Lunar eclipse (partially visible in India) will fall on 31st January 2018 in Cancer ascendant. Cancer is a Watery sign and possesses movable characteristics. Waterrelated problems can trouble India. Stocks of Agro, commodities, grains, tea and FMCG sector companies will be affected. The investors of these sectors are suggested to stay cautious and are advised to book profit at the first sign of weakness.
Set forth below are links to eight Guest Blog Entries that I have written on the Valuation-Informed Indexing investing strategy or that others have written commenting on it (actually one is about the Passion Saving strategy of money management -- how did that one get mixed in?!). 1) Stock Volatility Kills, at the Moolanomy blog. 2) Why Long-Term Timing Works Even Though Short-Term Timing Doesn't, at the Money and Such blog. 3) We're All Better Off as a Result of the Stock Crash, at the…
In 1987, you had an economy that was slowing from a rapid recovery, Treasury yields that were huge and falling, and an inflation rate that was running around 4%. Today, you have an economy that is just starting to boom, Treasury yields that are low and rising, and an inflation rate running around 2%. In other words, the economic conditions are starkly different.
Fast forward thirty years. I’ve discovered an analog chart model that correlates the markets of the 1980s to the markets of the 2010s. Specifically, it correlates the S&P 500 from 1978 to 1987 to the S&P 500 from 2010 to 2018. The correlation rate? 94%. In other words, this model shows that the stock market of the past eight years is trading similar to the stock market of the 1980s.
It wasn’t until the 1960s that the vocation was quasi-professionalized by a longtime Consolidated Edison Inc. employee who went by the name of Lieutenant Commander David Williams. Williams came to astrology via the burgeoning theory of “business cycles,” which posited that the market’s ups and downs have little to do with the particulars of companies or events but much to do with such patterns as the Fibonacci sequence, sunspots, or variations on Pi. Many of these, he thought, were themselves connected to planetary cycles. He found that during a series of 9.226-year cycles, the stock market bottomed out 80 percent of the time at Aries and Libra positions and crested 80 percent of the time at Cancer and Capricorn.
Les marchés émergents ont des espérances de rendement plus élevés (avec un risque élevé), donc ceux qui peuvent tolérer ce risque pourrait bénéficier du rendement supplémentaire surtout si on se considère un investisseur à long terme (on a généralement besoin d’un horizon de placement plus long pour profiter pleinement des marchés émergents). Aussi, cela rajoute un effet de diversification.
Néanmoins, on parle ici d’une solution « tout inclus ». Conséquemment, elle vous accorde très peu de contrôle et de flexibilité, tout en étant plus dispendieuse que celles proposées plus bas. En somme, Tangerine constitue un bon point de départ pour se détacher graduellement de son planificateur financier, mais, selon moi, n’est pas la solution la plus performante.
These stocks are known as high beta stocks, as they outperform on the way up and underperform on the way down. During a bull market, these high beta stocks are often the stocks that perform best. As a result they will grow into the largest positions in your portfolio. That’s why it’s a good idea to rebalance your portfolio and make sure the weighting of these “high beta” stocks aren’t too high. Here some more ways to prepare for a stock market crash:
Experienced investors who are “sophisticated enough to focus on these numbers and act on them themselves” can benefit by making their own adjustments, Mr. Davis said. Tried-and true investments like balanced funds and target date funds (which become more conservative as a given date nears) can make basic adjustments for you. Advisers can do this as well.
(Bloomberg) -- At Dwarika’s Resort, a holistic wellness retreat in Nepal’s Eastern Kathmandu Valley, I sat in a wooden library across from famed astrologer Santosh Vashistha, a distinguished 42-year-old in a plaid sport coat with remnants of festive red tika adorning his forehead. His piercing eyes are almost as captivating as the view of the distant Himalayas through the wide picture window behind him.
The swoon set tongues to wagging, about its cause and likely effect. There can be no knowing about the former. Markets may have worried that rising wages would crimp profits or trigger a faster pace of growth-squelching interest-rate increases, but a butterfly flapping its wings in Indonesia might just as well be to blame. There is little more certainty regarding the latter. Commentators have been quick to pull out the cliches: that “the stock market is not the economy”, and that “stocks have predicted nine out of the past five recessions”. These points have merit. A big move in stock prices can signify some change in economic fundamentals, but it can just as easily signify nothing at all. For those not invested in the market, or whose investments consist mostly of retirement savings plunked into index funds, Monday’s crash matters about as much as Sunday’s Super Bowl result.
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You predicted a hard Brexit and at the last minute Germany would press the EU to do a deal. Reading recently and with the vote in parliament along with several capitulations, I am beginning to get really concerned that the vote to leave will not be respected and we never leave. What now for the UK? It looks bad news. Are you still confident in what you have predicted, I truly hope you are right.
Set forth below are eight Guest Blog Entries discussing various aspects of the Valuation-Informed Indexing investing strategy and on the Passion Saving money management strategy. 1) The Future of Investing, at the Get Rich Slowly forum (this is actually a thread-starter at a discussion board rather than a Guest Blog Entry -- I put it forward in this form at the request of J.D. Roth, the owner of both the blog and the forum). 2) Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work (this is actually a…
According to one interpretation of the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH), only changes in fundamental factors, such as the outlook for margins, profits or dividends, ought to affect share prices beyond the short term, where random 'noise' in the system may prevail. The 'hard' efficient-market hypothesis does not explain the cause of events such as the crash in 1987, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 22.6 percent—the largest-ever one-day fall in the United States.
I've posted a Guest Blog Entry to the Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance blog titled Six Dangerous Investing Myths. Juicy Excerpt: Stocks are more risky than bonds.This has been the conventional wisdom for a long, long time. But risk is uncertainty. If Shiller is right that long-term returns are highly predictable, stocks are not nearly as risky as we have long believed them to be. If Shiller is right, stocks are a high-risk asset class only for those who don’t take valuations into…
Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: Can we count on you for discussing the death threats and job threats over on this new board as well? I never lead with the death threats and the job threats. The substantive stuff is what matters most and people hate to hear about the death threats and the job threats. But as a society we have to deal with the death threats and job threats before the substantive stuff can get widely known. Shiller published his “revolutionary” (his word) research 37 years ago. The obvious question that anyone asks when someone tells them about the realities of stock investing is: “Why haven’t I heard about this before?” It’s not possible to explain the 37-year cover-up without making reference to the death threats and job threats. It’s not possible to pull something like this off without death threats and job threats. There are other things that help to explain the 37-year cover-up. Cognitive dissonance is a big one. The counter-intuitive nature of some of the realities. Just the fact that we don’t know it all. Ignorance. That’s a factor that should not be overlooked. I talk about that stuff. I don’t talk only about death threats and job threats. I never have and I never will. My job is to tell the story. Death threats and job threats are part of the story. So I will tell about them when necessary and to the extent necessary. I try not to put too much emphasis on them. Because they are not the entire story. I try to give them the right amount of attention, not too much and not too little. I wish that there had never been any death threats or job threats. But that’s not the world we live in. That’s not the reality. We don’t get fewer death threats and fewer job threats by ignoring them, by never talking about them. Ignoring them causes us to see more death threats and more job threats. I am 100 percent sure. Our problem has not been that we have talked too little about death threats and job threats. By not talking about those that have taken place, we have caused more of them to take place. Which is of course not the way that any of […]
The key there is the huge gap between rich and poor you mention. This is a global problem. Capricorn is about the mountain goat who climbs to the top. It’s a symbol for the wealthiest 1% who have made it to the top of capitalism. People who make it, in a system, often tend to be strongly Capricorn. The Trump administration has a high number of Sun Capricorn men at the top. As Saturn, Pluto – and then Ceres and Jupiter – go through Capricorn to 2020, that is the end of the old, and the birth of the new. At the same time, the revolution of Uranus in Taurus (money) is here. If I can find a reliable chart for Hong Kong I’ll dig it up for you. But it sounds to me as if you’re on the money.
The internet is a wonderful place, and best of all, this knowledge can be found for FREE! The more you know about crisis situations, the more ready you will be to face them. Some sites are friendlier to beginners than others, so if you stumble upon a forum where people seem less than enthusiastic about helping people who are just starting out, don’t let it get you down. Move on and find a site that makes you feel comfortable. Following are some of my favorites, and the link will take you to a good starting point on these sites. In no particular order:
Perhaps the most important of these is the horoscope of the New York Stock Exchange which was founded May 17, 1792. There are several times out there for this chart, with different astrologers making a case for each. After much testing, I find the 10.30 am chart to be the most accurate. I have rectified to 10.34 am in order to make better use of the smaller chart varga divisions in Jyotish. This is quite a powerful chart, although one needs to stand outside of the Vedic tradition to fully appreciate it. Uranus, the planet of unbounded energy and sudden change, rises within one degree of the ascendant while Venus, the planet of money and luxury, culminates very near the Midheaven. Venus and Uranus together spell "fast or accelerated money" better than just about any other planetary combinations I can think of and therein perfectly describe the rapid movement of money on the trading floor. However appropriate that symbolism, it is more important that the chart adequately reflect major price movements over its long history. It does this well indeed regardless if one uses Western or Vedic techniques, as I do. This ability to see the dynamic of both bull and bear markets regardless of one's operating paradigm is a sign of the robustness of this chart.
Bernanke said in March 2007 that the sub-prime mortgage mess could be “contained.” And Greenspan famously inveighed against the stock market’s “irrational exuberance” in 1996. If you listened to him then and exited stocks, you would rue your decision: The market had a fabulous run for the next four years. Rogers is a perma-bear about domestic stocks, who has been downbeat since the 1980s (he is famously enthusiastic about emerging markets, though).