Jump up ^ Sylla, Richard (2015). "Financial Development, Corporations, and Inequality". (BHC-EBHA Meeting). As Richard Sylla (2015) notes, "In modern history, several nations had what some of us call financial revolutions. These can be thought of as creating in a short period of time all the key components of a modern financial system. The first was the Dutch Republic four centuries ago."

Stock market crashes are usually caused by more than one factor. In fact, there are often two sets of reasons for a crash. One set of conditions creates the environment for the sell-off, and another set of factors triggers the beginning of the sell-off. Just because there is a market bubble, it doesn’t mean the market will crash. Usually something needs to occur to cause investors to begin selling and buyers to step away from the stock market.
Personally, I believe that the S&P 500 will bounce back on Friday, but that doesn’t mean that the crisis is over.  Remember, some of the best days in stock market history happened right in the middle of the financial crisis of 2008.  During market panics, we should expect to see dramatic ups and downs.  When markets are calm, that is good news for stocks, but when markets start swinging wildly that is usually a sign to start heading for the exits.
Never… That’s a sweeping generalisation. What about the Hilton bombing in 1978 by Ananda Marga? But you are right about the Lindt Cafe seige… that was one agitated man trying to elevate his effect by invoking the Prophet while pursuing his own agenda. He’d just lost a High Court appeal and he was on bail as an accessory to the killing his wife. Nutter, not terrorist.
I've posted a Guest Blog Entry at the My Personal Finance Journey blog titled The Coming Revolution in Our Understanding of How Stock Investing Works. Juicy Excerpt: If the market is efficient both in the short-term and in the long-term, Buy-and-Hold is the perfect strategy. The only way to capture the high returns of stocks is to be heavily invested in them and, since there is no way to predict returns, the only thing to do is to remain heavily invested in stocks at all times. However,…

There’s also something to be said for knowing a thing or two about investing even if you decide to hire a financial advisor. At the very least, you should know enough on your own to determine whether or not an advisor is a good fit for you and can create a financial plan based on your goals. Fortunately, you no longer have to enroll in a college-level course to learn about investing (though you certainly can if you want to). The Internet has made it much easier for individuals to learn how to invest. It’s not just learning about stocks either – investors can now learn about real estate, dividends, companies and new investment products from the comfort of their homes.

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: “Yours comes with death threats and demands for unjustified board bannings and thousands of acts of defamation and threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs.” Death threats? You mean this link you sent to the police that is obviously not a death threat? https://boards.fool.com/sydsydsyd-theyre-taking-them-down-as-fast-as-we-18207722.aspx?sort=postdate I did indeed show that to the police. And, yes, that is indeed a death threat. Posts like that do not belong in discussions of how stock investing works. And it is ALWAYS the Buy-and-Holders who advance such posts. It is only a small number of Buy-and-Holders who do that sort of thing. But it is a LARGE percentage of the population of Buy-and-Holders who TOLERATE that sort of thing. Motley Fool should have banned the person who advanced that post. The post is clearly in violation of their published rules. They didn’t ban the person who advanced the post because the majority of the population of the board was Buy-and-Holders and Motley Fool wanted the money that came in as a result of having those people at the site. This is why Buy-and-Hold is so dangerous. It is an emotion-based strategy. It cannot survive in a world in which posting based on the last 37 years of peer-reviewed research is permitted. So it is not just that the Buy-and-Holders get it wrong. Getting it wrong is a small thing in relative terms. It is that the Buy-and-Holders cannot tolerate anyone else getting it right. Buy-and-Holders attack those who advocate research-based strategies because, when people come to see the merits of research-based strategies, it makes the Buy-and-Holders look bad for promoting the OPPOSITE of what works. What works is to always practice price discipline when buying stocks. Buy-and-Holders tell investors NOT to exercise price discipline (long-term timing). Huh? What the f? I OPPOSE that sort of post, Anonymous. Please feel free to spread the word all across the internet. I would feel that you were doing me a favor by doing so. That sort of thing is not my particular cup of tea. It’s not a close call. The primary reason why I chose to build the Retire Early at Motley Fool is that they had the strongest rules on the internet protecting people from that sort of posting behavior. […]


Though he hails from a little-known town in southeastern Nepal called Jhapa, Vashistha has gained international recognition for his ability to read the stars. In 2017, he was named the best astrologer in Asia by the Asian Astrologer Congress and the World Astrology Federation. His readings focus more on substantive geopolitical predictions and personal fortunes than hokey horoscope drivel, and his regular clients include Nepal’s Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, Bollywood actress Manisha Koirala, and American celebrities whose names he wouldn’t reveal. All of them treat his readings as gospel, so seldom is he wrong.
I have no illusions about the Islamic world. 9/11 was only the start. Anybody who has read the Koran knows that it is a book of violence teaching violence against infidels. The Koran appeals to believers to conquer foreign lands and subjugate the natives. The last time the West has successfully forced out Islam was in 1683 at the Gates of Vienna. As a result, European civilisation could flourish and develop freedom and democracy. This time Europe will take a much more sinister turn, and a dark and bloody age will follow. As Europeans we have stopped believing in our own values. We are certainly not willing to defend them in this postmodern age of cultural relativism. We have become complacent and take our freedoms for granted to the extent that we cannot imagine any other circumstances. In future, Europeans, including the UK, will be truly tested. They will have to decide which values they believe in and what they are prepared to defend.
I've posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Everyday Tips and Thoughts blog. It's called Stocks Are Not Risky for Those Willing to Tune Out the Wall Street Mumbo Jumbo. Juicy Excerpt: The people who are cited in the media as investment “experts” are almost all employed by Wall Street. Wall Street makes lots of money when you invest in stocks and hardly anything when you invest in other asset classes. So 90 percent of the “experts” are compromised. They are not experts in how to invest…

The crash of 1929 involved a total stock market collapse, whereas, during 1987 stocks remained in a bull trend despite the 23% decline. The bursting of the Dot Com bubble in 2000 doesn’t appear very pronounced on the above chart. However, remember it is a chart of the Dow Jones index, which only includes 30 blue-chip companies. If you look at the tech heavy Nasdaq for the same period, you will see a very different picture.
In the 1920’s, banks were opening up at the rate of 4 to 5 per day.  There were few federal restrictions to determine start up capital needed to start up a new bank or how much of its reserve it could lend.  As a result, most of these banks were highly insolvent.  Banks were closing at the rate of 2 a day between 1923 and 1929.  Then as banks moved to invest heavily in the stock market, this proved to be a disaster when the market crashed.  By 1932, 40% of all banks were wiped out.
At least, that's what I'd say if I were a chain-smoking stock market trader, but for memes. For a while now, this mental image has been the running gag behind popular subreddit "/r/MemeEconomy." On the forum, users jokingly speculate about which memes are on the rise, and which should be dumped before they take down your entire portfolio by making it into a "normie" publication. You know, like this one. 

Hi Craig. Thanks for your predictions for 2018. As a UK’er now living in Australia I would like more on Australia if possible. I also wanted to comment on the ‘strikes in the UK’ that you said was not good as it is disruptive. Well sometimes disruption is necessary because many people are suffering. Yes I do my best to be kind and send out positive thoughts / feelings and follow a spiritual path, but as we are embodied conscious beings and many people are in dire straits due to the greed of a few – doesn’t some form of action need to be taken? And as wage slaves, withdrawal of labor is the obvious option. People often only strike because they are in dire need and a strike is the only way they can afford to alert the powers-that-be that something MUST change. On a personal level I have withdrawn my support from the “buy, buy, buy” mantra and live as simply as I can within this society, but when the basics such as food and shelter become unaffordable and urgent for individuals more needs to be done by all of us to honor our embodied spirit (our bodies as temples wherein we worship the divine) as well as the natural world in the wider cosmos. As an astrologer I feel the spiritual energy of Uranus, which is disruptive and brings rapid change is equally valid as the peaceful path don’t you think?
Set forth below are links to eight Guest Blog Entries that I have written on the Valuation-Informed Indexing investing strategy or that others have written commenting on it. 1) A Better Approach to Investing, by Michael Harr, at Wealth Uncomplicated. 2) Talk Back to the Investing Experts, at Save Buy Live. 3) The Bankers Did Not Do This to Us, at Weakonomics. 4) Passive Investing Is a Strategy for Extremists, at Money and Such. 5) Passive Investing Is for Extremists: The…
Perhaps the best way to hedge your portfolio against a crash, is to make sure you always have a healthy portion of it allocated to cash. The amount you allocate to cash really depends on how much volatility you are happy to tolerate. More cash means you stand to lose less, but you will probably lose out on returns in the long run. A lower cash balance will probably lead to higher overall returns, but will also mean higher volatility.

China and Indonesia hit again (CORRECT: 6/10? This post and video were made on 18th Sept 2018. Ten days later on the 28th September, there is a Tsunami in Indonesia. This post, however, says ‘Typhoons’ and relates to 2019 but it is interesting that I spoke about an environmental disaster in Indonesia.  CNN Report here.)  but this time hurricanes move north and hit Japan too. In 2019 Japan will see extensive flooding.


I recently wrote a guest blog for the Free Money Finance blog entitled Timing Doesn't Work -- Or Does It? Juicy Excerpt: Too many investing experts have fallen into the lazy habit of saying that timing doesn't work without making the distinction between short-term timing and long-term timing. A community member named "Brian S." offered an extremely helpful comment. Juicy Excerpt: David Swensen, the investment manager for the Yale Endowment, discusses this in his book "Unconventional…
This does not mean that successful investing is impossible; only that the more we learn about market behavior, the more it seems that trying to deal with uncertainty is more important than pretending that we can have any certainty. More precisely, managing risk seems to be a better approach to investing than concocting forecasts on asset returns. This could mean, for example, finding ways of identifying when market participants start to align on one side of a trade by measuring correlations, or measuring returns to flash a warning when they start growing at “super-exponential” rates.

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: Your analogy is flawed, not to mention stupid, not to mention horribly insulting to sexual assault victims. Cosby’s victims really did do all they could. You haven’t. You could create new accounts on every single board you were banned from TODAY. You could start writing your next book TODAY. You could start making a difference TODAY. No one is stopping you. You simply choose not to. As you should have realized by now, society doesn’t have much sympathy for someone who chooses to be a helpless victim. I’m not willing to create new accounts. If I did that, would I use my real name or not? If I used my real name, I would just be banned again. If I didn’t, I would essentially be lying. I would be appearing at a board that banned me under another name, knowing that I would be banned if I appeared under my true name. Huh? What the f? I have done nothing to justify a ban. Not once. I have nothing to be ashamed of. I have helped people. I have pointed out the errors in the Buy-and-Hold retirement studies. People need to know about those errors. A failed retirement is a serious life setback. I am happy to lend my efforts to any board that will have me and where I can help out. But I don’t approve of games-playing re these matters. I am Rob Bennett. I pointed out the error in the Buy-and-Hold retirement studies in a post that I put to the Motley Fool board on early retirement on the morning of May 13, 2002. The post generated a huge reaction, some insanely positive and some insanely negative. I am happy to answer any questions that anyone has, both those advanced by my supporters and those advanced by my critics. But I am not interested in pretending to be someone other than who I am. I am the fellow who put forward that famous post, I am proud of it, and I see no reason to make an effort to appear anywhere under another name. I hope that helps a small bit, my dear Goon friend. The True Rob Bennett (and No One Else) Related PostsBuy-and-Hold Goon to Rob: Just Because You Were Able […]
À 14 h 32, dans un contexte de grande volatilité, fut envoyé sur le marché un ordre de vente de 75 000 E-Mini (en) à échéance juin 2010 d'une valeur approximative de 4,1 milliards de dollars pour couvrir une position longue équivalente. Cet ordre fut adressé automatiquement via un programme de trading algorithmique. Cet ordre avait été configuré afin d'obtenir un taux d'exécution de 9 % du volume d'échange calculé par rapport à la dernière minute, sans apporter d'attention au prix ou à l'heure d'exécution. Cet ordre de vente automatisé créa la plus forte baisse du cours du contrat E-Mini depuis le début de l'année 2010. Seuls deux échanges d'une telle taille avaient été exécutés sur les 12 derniers mois et par la même société de trading. La dernière vente de cette taille avait été opérée via une combinaison d'ordres manuels et de plusieurs ordres automatisés prenant en compte le prix, l'heure et le volume ; l'exécution de cet ordre avait pris plus de cinq heures. Le 6 mai 2010, dans un marché nerveux, le choix de vendre 75 000 contrats en ne prenant en compte que le volume (sans tenir compte du prix et de l'heure) devait occuper seulement 20 minutes.
The Warren Buffett Indicator is less mysterious than it sounds. It might as well be called the common-sense indicator. It’s simply the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP)—or the sum total of a country’s economic activity—and the value of stocks in the S&P 500. So, in simpler terms, the Warren Buffett Indicator in terms of Wall Street measures market capitalization versus U.S. GDP. (Source: “Why Warren Buffett Is Betting Against Warren Buffett,” Seeking Alpha, October 24, 2017.)
“ The stock market — the daytime adventure serial of the well-to-do — would not be the stock market if it did not have its ups and downs. (...) And it has many other distinctive characteristics. Apart from the economic advantages and disadvantages of stock exchanges — the advantage that they provide a free flow of capital to finance industrial expansion, for instance, and the disadvantage that they provide an all too convenient way for the unlucky, the imprudent, and the gullible to lose their money — their development has created a whole pattern of social behavior, complete with customs, language, and predictable responses to given events. What is truly extraordinary is the speed with which this pattern emerged full blown following the establishment, in 1611, of the world's first important stock exchange — a roofless courtyard in Amsterdam — and the degree to which it persists (with variations, it is true) on the New York Stock Exchange in the nineteen-sixties. Present-day stock trading in the United States — a bewilderingly vast enterprise, involving millions of miles of private telegraph wires, computers that can read and copy the Manhattan Telephone Directory in three minutes, and over twenty million stockholder participants — would seem to be a far cry from a handful of seventeenth-century Dutchmen haggling in the rain. But the field marks are much the same. The first stock exchange was, inadvertently, a laboratory in which new human reactions were revealed. By the same token, the New York Stock Exchange is also a sociological test tube, forever contributing to the human species' self-understanding. The behaviour of the pioneering Dutch stock traders is ably documented in a book entitled “Confusion of Confusions,” written by a plunger on the Amsterdam market named Joseph de la Vega; originally published in 1688, (...) ”
The stock market crash of 1929 had transiting Pluto conjuncting Uranus in the 7th and making an opposition to the first house; it’s similar to the upcoming transits we’ve only begun to taste. I could go on and on about the similarities between now and then, there are many, but really the main point is to protect yourself. We, the tax payers, are already going to bail out wall street, but you can bet, you the individual share holder won’t be as fortunate. Take care of yourself and get out when you feel the timing is right — just do it before mid-December of this year to be safe.

1. The biggest drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average happened on February 8, 2018 (see featured image above) and Bitcoin’s dramatic dip to just over $6,000USD happened on February 6, 2018. Both stock types are in line with the predicted aspect’s date frame of being within 10 days. There was also a small extra dip right on February 11. The Sun square Jupiter aspect did, evidently, produce the stock market crash 2018, within 5 to 3 days earlier.
There are more millennials because they started from higher birth levels than the baby boomers. But the slope of the wave of baby boomers from 1936 to 1961 is like a huge 10-foot wave. The millennials will never have that growth rate even at their full peak spending period. They won’t take us to new heights. So the economy basically goes sideways as far as the eye can see. Demographics are going to be shrinking, even in the next boom.
Set forth below are eight Guest Blog Entries discussing various aspects of the Valuation-Informed Indexing investing strategy and on the Passion Saving money management strategy. 1) The Future of Investing, at the Get Rich Slowly forum (this is actually a thread-starter at a discussion board rather than a Guest Blog Entry -- I put it forward in this form at the request of J.D. Roth, the owner of both the blog and the forum). 2) Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work (this is actually a…
Houses and apartments are ruled by Cancer and the Fourth House of ‘home’ so when the North Node moves into Cancer towards the end of this year we will see new emphasis on property prices around the world, through to 2019. The special child in your world is really shown by Leo and the Fifth House, and you have a strong Leo signature. The North Node has been going over Leo so old karma has been activated. It is very likely that you, your niece and the special child knew each other in a previous lifetime. Flux is okay, by the way. In fact it’s necessary. Astrology can help by alerting you so that you realise what is going on and you go with radically new ways to earn, own or owe.
It is hard to imagine that a tumble in stock prices—even one as dramatic as Monday’s—could shake economic sentiment enough that policy-makers would need to try to lift anyone’s spirits, given how robust economic figures have been of late. To say the fundamentals are strong tempts fate, but the fundamentals are as strong as they have been in over a decade. Of course, it is when things seem rosiest that policy-makers are most prone to underreact to a bump in the road. This crash is probably nothing. But they always are, except for the times when they aren’t.
In the 1929 stock market crash Pluto was exactly conjuncting the Dow’s 12th house of loss. This sensitive point will be hit by Mars in late December of this year. That alone won’t do it as Mars is a personal planet, but Saturn will be making an applying square at this time and Mars will set it off. Pluto will also be moving from the 12th over the 1st house. This will be a major death and rebirth of the market — MAJOR CHANGES. Venus will be making a trine to Neptune at the time (those who trust their intuition will do OK) but it will also be inconjuncting (the Dow’s ruler) Saturn, and Mars (the two malifics). Inconjunctions cause loss or separation (like from your money) and of course Neptune rules loss. 
Like my maverick 88 nice smooth action just a good basic shotty. Takes 3 inch loads I think that’s overkill though but hey if I come across some during a shortage it will work. Would like to get a 590 though but the 88 is sufficient as it will mostly pull guard duty in the house so it won’t see rough conditions. Grew sweet potatoes this year gonna have 30lbs or more come harvest time. My garden and fruit trees produce so much I don’t buy produce anymore just meats grains juices really. I don’t hunt but might this year got me a decent crossbow and the shotgun of course there is no rifle hunting around here. Have a buddy who used to be a butcher and hunts and processes all his own meat. I’m fond of back strap and sausage.
Like my maverick 88 nice smooth action just a good basic shotty. Takes 3 inch loads I think that’s overkill though but hey if I come across some during a shortage it will work. Would like to get a 590 though but the 88 is sufficient as it will mostly pull guard duty in the house so it won’t see rough conditions. Grew sweet potatoes this year gonna have 30lbs or more come harvest time. My garden and fruit trees produce so much I don’t buy produce anymore just meats grains juices really. I don’t hunt but might this year got me a decent crossbow and the shotgun of course there is no rifle hunting around here. Have a buddy who used to be a butcher and hunts and processes all his own meat. I’m fond of back strap and sausage.
Jones is widely credited with predicting, and profiting, from the stock-market crash on Oct. 19, 1987, which saw the Dow lose nearly 23% of its value, marking the largest one-day percentage decline for the blue-chip benchmark in its history. Jones founded Tudor in 1980 and became known for trading everything from currencies to commodities. His record has featured middling returns and an exodus of billions from his hedge fund in more recent years. According to a Forbes list of billionaires, Jones boasts a net worth of $4.7 billion
Intraday Data provided by SIX Financial Information and subject to terms of use. Historical and current end-of-day data provided by SIX Financial Information. All quotes are in local exchange time. Real-time last sale data for U.S. stock quotes reflect trades reported through Nasdaq only. Intraday data delayed at least 15 minutes or per exchange requirements.
In terms of the wider UK retail market, Tesco sales account for around one pound in every ten spent in British shops.[115] In 2007 it was reported that its share was even larger, with one pound in every seven spent going to Tesco.[116] In 2006, Inverness was branded as "Tescotown",[117][118] because well over 50p in every £1 spent on food is believed to be spent in its three Tesco shops.[119] By 2014 competition from other retailers led to a fall in Tesco's market share to 28.7%; this was the lowest level in a decade.[120]
Hi Craig. I really enjoy yours and Janes youtube channel. I found your 2018 predictions to be quite accurate, especially about Hawaii. Darn.. just when I wanted to move there. lol. I’m a psychic myself of many years, and I’m glad to see the genuine article out there is a teaching in a positive way, when so much wrong information exists. Though I’m a clairvoyant, I don’t see auras too well and will be using your 6 steps to practice. Good Luck, God Bless 🙂
Don't have a time to understand Stock Market? Don't worry; go for our Share Market Crash Course.  Within a short period of time you will learn how to trade and invest in Stock Market. This course is specially designed for those people who don't have a time but have a very strong interest in stock market. We will teach you trading tricks of stock market in a short period of span and also in a
I recently engaged in a discussion of the Efficient Market Theory at the Early Retirement Extreme Forum. The thread is titled Is Efficient Market a Theory, Hypothesis, Fact, Law or Notion? Juicy Excerpt #1: I want to be fair in my descriptions. I don't want to underplay the extent to which I believe the evidence has been misinterpreted. I believe that this misinterpretation has caused a great deal of misery. So I want to be firm on this point. But I also want to be fair. I don't want to be…
I just checked my sister’s chart and noticed that she has Mars in Taurus at 3 degrees. Her Birthday is Oct 20th, 1973 (Repalle, India) 1:20 PM IST. How is this going to effect her? She works in a Bank(!!) and has a 10 year old daughter(April 24th, 2008 Taurus). Her husband is an Aries who lost his job a month back. Since, I saw Taurus in 4th house, I am worried (hope it has got nothing to do with health of any family members). Appreciate any input, if you have time, please.
Grace K. Morris, a professional astrologer and president of Astro Economics Inc., similarly boasted that during the Great Recession, she accurately predicted that the market would bottom out on March 9, 2009. Traditional economists such as Nouriel “Dr. Doom” Roubini, meanwhile, struggled to pinpoint a specific date when the market would turn; Goldman’s Abby Joseph Cohen insisted it would soon rally, long after 2008 had become a flaming dumpster fire. (Currently, Morris believes the market will continue to roar until a major crash occurs between August 2026 and March 2028; best of luck with that one.)
Weingarten is prone to soliloquies extolling his “world-class, nobody better” forecasting record. Asked to explain his methodology, he answers in gnomic riddles or not at all. The family office guy asks how financial astrology might relate to SpaceX and other efforts to explore beyond Earth. Weingarten cuts him off and says he can’t give him an “informed decision about how children on the moon will be affected.”
Bonjour,votre article était très intéressant ! Je me demandais a partir de quel montant (s’il y en a un) ça vaut la peine de commencer à investir en bourse. Plus je lis plus je me rend compte que mon argent « dort » dans mon compte en banque. On dit souvent que ça prend de l’argent pour faire de l’argent mais avez vous des trucs sinon pour avoir le « cash flow » de départ?

Set forth below are eight Guest Blog Entries I have written dealing with the Valuation-Informed Indexing investment strategy or that others have written commenting on it. 1) The Risks of Buy-and-Hold Investing, at the Pop Economics blog. 2) Valuation-Informed Indexing Is Risk-Diminished Investing, submitted to Pop Economics but ultimately posted at A Rich Life. 3) When Stock Prices Crash, Where Does the Money Go?, at the Budgets Are Sexy blog. 4) Stock Market Strategy: Timing Based…

I've posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Consumerism Commentary site titled Are Stock Gains and Losses Real? Juicy Excerpt: Losses suffered starting from super-high prices are never recovered. When you pay more than a fair price for stocks, a portion of your money is going to the purchase of stocks and a portion is going to the purchase of cotton-candy nothingness. Prices always return to fair value. So these price drops are not so much losses as they are the market coming to recognize phony…
La tolérance au risque dépend en grande partie de votre personnalité. Quelle serait votre réaction si la valeur de vos épargnes fondait très rapidement? Par exemple, lors d’un krach boursier, alors que plusieurs investisseurs vendraient en panique, auriez-vous les nerfs assez solides pour acheter d’autres actions pendant que leur valeur est basse? Même en gardant une perspective long terme, il faut être conscient que plus le potentiel de performance d’un placement est élevé, plus son niveau de risque est important.
The Oracle of the I Ching says “the best way to combat evil is perseverance in the good”. This can work in our own lives and has an energetic effect on reality itself. Collectively, we should look at horrible people like Kim Jong-un, the terrorist losers, the greedy business people and the perverted priests and be inspired to do the absolute opposite. When we see the disgusting things they do, we should go out into the world and do acts of kindness. We don’t have to spend money for we can create great energy by actively being kind and compassionate in our daily lives. This does good of course, but on an energetic level consciously doing acts of kindness is tremendously powerful and can change the world. We forget our latent powers in this time of Kali Yuga but every one of us has the powers of the Sathya Yuga – the Golden Age – within us.
I've posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Free from Broke site titled Playing Dominion vs. Playing the Market. Juicy Excerpt: It’s possible to finish a game of Dominion in 30 minutes.  Newcomers to the game make dumb mistakes the first time they play. They learn from those mistakes. They get better. Investing is a game that extends over 60 years of your life (if you start at age 25 and die at age 85).  By the time we figure the game out, it’s…
Oui, c’est bien vrai, JR, 90 % des gestionnaires de fonds mutuels ne battent pas le marché, sauf que, nuance ! Buffett s’est cité lui-même en exemple pour dénoncer la prétendue efficience des marchés selon laquelle il aurait dû lui être impossible de cumuler du 20 % et plus de rendement composé annuel pendant 60 ans tout en battant systématiquement le marché.
Stock market crashes are usually caused by more than one factor. In fact, there are often two sets of reasons for a crash. One set of conditions creates the environment for the sell-off, and another set of factors triggers the beginning of the sell-off. Just because there is a market bubble, it doesn’t mean the market will crash. Usually something needs to occur to cause investors to begin selling and buyers to step away from the stock market.
In the United Kingdom Tesco offers financial services through Tesco Bank, formerly a 50:50 joint venture with The Royal Bank of Scotland. Products on offer include credit cards, loans, mortgages, savings accounts and several types of insurance, including car, home, life and travel. They are promoted by leaflets in Tesco's shops and through its website. The business made a profit of £130 million for the 52 weeks to 24 February 2007, of which Tesco's share was £66 million. This move towards the financial sector diversified the Tesco brand and provides opportunities for growth outside of the retailing sector. On 28 July 2008, Tesco announced that they would buy out the Royal Bank of Scotland's 50% stake in the company for £950 million.[77]

I've posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Hope to Prosper site titled The Economic Crisis Is the Best Thing That Ever Happened to Us. Juicy Excerpt #1: there is today a mismatch between how we think stocks work and how stocks really do work that must be addressed and that the mismatch has been ignored for so long that a point was reached at which an economic crisis was the only way to force a change. Juicy Excerpt #2: Things change. There have never before been millions of middle-class people…
Rajeev Prakash Agarwal is a renowned astrologer, based out of central India, with a vast experience of 20 years in astrology. He predicts the trend of stocks, commodities, currencies and bonds around the globe. With an accuracy of over 92%, he has a track record of over a decade in financial markets. He was also the astrologer who predicted the huge crash in January 2008 through advertisements in leading newspapers. Know More
In Professor Sornette’s model, a bubble is a market heading to a critical point. But a crash is not the only possible post-crisis outcome: Prices can also stop rising and reach a higher plateau. It is precisely because of the small but real probability that a bubble will not crash but simply stop growing that it is rational for some investors to stay in the market, even when if they think that it has gone too far, too fast.

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: “Yours comes with death threats and demands for unjustified board bannings and thousands of acts of defamation and threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs.” Death threats? You mean this link you sent to the police that is obviously not a death threat? https://boards.fool.com/sydsydsyd-theyre-taking-them-down-as-fast-as-we-18207722.aspx?sort=postdate I did indeed show that to the police. And, yes, that is indeed a death threat. Posts like that do not belong in discussions of how stock investing works. And it is ALWAYS the Buy-and-Holders who advance such posts. It is only a small number of Buy-and-Holders who do that sort of thing. But it is a LARGE percentage of the population of Buy-and-Holders who TOLERATE that sort of thing. Motley Fool should have banned the person who advanced that post. The post is clearly in violation of their published rules. They didn’t ban the person who advanced the post because the majority of the population of the board was Buy-and-Holders and Motley Fool wanted the money that came in as a result of having those people at the site. This is why Buy-and-Hold is so dangerous. It is an emotion-based strategy. It cannot survive in a world in which posting based on the last 37 years of peer-reviewed research is permitted. So it is not just that the Buy-and-Holders get it wrong. Getting it wrong is a small thing in relative terms. It is that the Buy-and-Holders cannot tolerate anyone else getting it right. Buy-and-Holders attack those who advocate research-based strategies because, when people come to see the merits of research-based strategies, it makes the Buy-and-Holders look bad for promoting the OPPOSITE of what works. What works is to always practice price discipline when buying stocks. Buy-and-Holders tell investors NOT to exercise price discipline (long-term timing). Huh? What the f? I OPPOSE that sort of post, Anonymous. Please feel free to spread the word all across the internet. I would feel that you were doing me a favor by doing so. That sort of thing is not my particular cup of tea. It’s not a close call. The primary reason why I chose to build the Retire Early at Motley Fool is that they had the strongest rules on the internet protecting people from that sort of posting behavior. […]


Stacey, the difference between life after May, and life before May, is so extreme it’s almost like the difference between Ronald Reagan and everyone who came before him. It is also going to move very, very rapidly. Investing for your son is smart, of course, but you do need to look at his Taurus and Scorpio factors, if he has them. Jupiter (growth, abundance, good fortune, solutions) in Scorpio in the Eighth House of your chart this year is a huge source of either protection or profit. You have Mars at 25 Scorpio so when Jupiter hits 25 you will have an opportunity not possible in 12 years to take action on the money, the cryptocurrency, the house, apartment, business or charity. On 19th October, for example, the Sun at 25 Libra aspects Jupiter at 25 Scorpio, right on your Mars. However – and this is a big ‘however for you – you were also born with Uranus at 0 Scorpio and Uranus at 0 Taurus will oppose this, May and June 2018. This period will be a very wild ride, and you will need to educate yourself rapidly about what is going on out there and how to adapt and adjust. If you are curious about Uranus, Taurus, Scorpio, the Second House and Eighth House please hit Search. But in general, expect the unexpected. You can’t really make savvy choices about this new financial era until you get past Uranus entering Taurus – for the first time in most people’s adult lives. This is going to be as big as President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal in 1934. As big as Europe devaluing its currency. The astrology and history tell us that! Yet – eventually – we’re looking at one world crypto currency – and a more level playing field for the so-called Third World.
I recently wrote a guest blog entry at the Shark Investor blog entitled I'd Be the Growlingest Bear on the Internet if Only I Were a Bear. Juicy Excerpt: I’m a reporter. I report things. That’s how I’ve made my living for a long time. Never have I seen such an emotional reaction to anything I have reported as I have seen after reporting what the historical data says about how stocks are likely to perform over the next 10 years. Today's Passion: The other version of this one includes…
“Investing isn’t rocket science,” says Janet Tyler Johnson, certified financial planner and president of JATAJ Wealth Management. “The keys to long-term investment success are globally diversifying your money, keeping costs low, and rebalancing your accounts as needed. And don’t forget the Golden Rule of investing – if you don’t understand it, don’t invest in it.”
Venus will conjoin Rahu in Cancer sign on 8th. Mars will aspect this conjunction and will give the Bulls a reason to smile ! Upsurge in the stocks of FMCG, IT, Media, Copper and Heavy Industries sector companies (Reliance, ITC, Marico, Emami, ITI, BHEL etc) will be observed. Mercury will move in Gemini sign on 10th and will be aspected by Saturn & Jupiter. Bullions will see downward movement, whereas stock indices will move Northwards. Sun will conjoin Mercury in Gemini on 15th. The Bulls are suggested to square off the profitable positions at the earliest and book the profit. Bearish trends will be visible in grains, Sugar and vegetables. Since the Solar ingress is falling on Friday, value investors will find good deals in the stocks of Cotton, Yarn and Silk threads sector. (Pioneer Embroideries, Winsome yarn, Trident, Indo Count, Ambika Cotton & Nitin Spinners).
I’m glad I saw the fingerprint for you – for a moment I thought it was because so much of Sherlock Holmes was written in this London house! Uranus at 3 Taurus, opposite Uranus at 3 Scorpio, seems likely to bring in your profession in identity and security systems. I am sure you are completely on top of changes in your field, but make it your business to be across everything, with more concentration and awareness than usual. This also applies very much to 2019 as Uranus will take a couple of years to cross 0, 1, 2, 3 Taurus. This is most certainly about your work, because you were born with Juno (commitments) at 3 Virgo in your Sixth House, which rules your job. Putting all that together, you need to go deeply into the new realities of online identity and security from the middle of May, which will be a tremendous shock for millions of us, right around the world. The story develops across 2019, and possibly into 2020, and I do think you’ll have to reshape your career as a result of it. Don’t be worried. Do be interested and informed. We will see Jupiter (expansion, growth, opportunity) slowly make trines to your Taurus and Virgo placements once he changes signs at the end of 2019, and I think 2020 could be your year professionally, but it would be as a result of what you learn – and what you do – in response to the whole new world of internet banking, and global taxation. Time to start reading those financial and business newspapers as never before. And tech. Watch Fakebook.

I recently posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Future Storm blog. It's entitled What the Stock Investing Experts Don't Want You to Know. Juicy Excerpt: The experts are experts in selling first, second, third and fourth. They don’t tell us what we need to know about stocks but only what we want to know about stocks. We all wanted to think that those insane prices could continue indefinitely. That was of course a hopeless dream. But the experts did not want to be the ones to let us know. They…

My predictions hit the news sites and featured in the national newspapers when in 2015 I predicted the presidency of Donald Trump. Last year I said that Hillary Clinton will drop out of politics. She’s still hanging in there but has recently expressed a desire to become a religious preacher. It looks like her time in politics is coming to a close. I also stated in my predictions for 2017 that America becomes a nation divided between East and West and that there would be riots on the streets. America is certainly a divided nation but I was wrong in my prediction that troops from neighboring neutral Canada would be asked to help quell unrest.


Followers of my predictions will know I predicted the Arab Spring and the first ‘’Je suis Charlie’ atrocities in Paris. On my page and the video about the Middle East I saw the defeat of ISIS in Syria and Iraq – a process that is happening but, as I explained, Syria will be left almost uninhabitable.  I also predicted that Syria would be partitioned. So far, this has not happened but there are now strong indications that this could eventually happen.
“At the Very Bare Minimum, Anyone Who Points Someone to One of the Buy-and-Hold Retirement Studies for Use in Planning a Retirement Should Let That Person Know That There Are Today Two Schools of Academic Thought as to How Stock Investing Works, Not One, and Let that Person Make the Decision as to Whether to Rely on the Numbers Generated by the Buy-and-Hold Studies or the Numbers Generated by the Valuation-Informed Indexing Studies.”
In May 2008, when crude oil had broken through $100 a barrel, Merriman astrologically predicted—on the record—that it would top out at $144 (give or take $8) before plummeting within two years. Then he said it would decline, somewhere between 77 percent and 93 percent.) Goldman Sachs Group Inc., by contrast, thought crude could hit $200 a barrel, and traditional energy economists at Deutsche Bank AG were stupefied by the confusing market dynamics. Sure enough, crude hit $147.27 on July 11, 2008 and slid to $32.48 five months later.

The stock market crash of October 1929 led directly to the Great Depression in Europe. When stocks plummeted on the New York Stock Exchange, the world noticed immediately. Although financial leaders in the United Kingdom, as in the United States, vastly underestimated the extent of the crisis that would ensue, it soon became clear that the world's economies were more interconnected than ever. The effects of the disruption to the global system of financing, trade, and production and the subsequent meltdown of the American economy were soon felt throughout Europe.[39]

C’est maintenant à vous de jouer! Vous pouvez construire votre propre portefeuille ou vous baser sur un des nombreux modèles publiés en ligne. Il est évident que ça requiert beaucoup d’apprentissages, mais dites-vous que chaque heure investie vous rapproche un peu de votre objectif de liberté. L’important est de respecter votre zone de confort et votre niveau de connaissances. Je recommande d’avancer à petits pas et de tester graduellement avec de petites sommes d’argent pour vous familiariser avec le processus.

J’ai entendu parler de la firme Giverny, ils battent le marché année aprèes année depuis 1993. Qu’en pensez-vous ? Est-il vraiment impossible de ne pas battre le marché ? C’est un exemple parmi d’autres, j’imagine. J’aimerais bien connaître la réflexion qui vous a poussé vers les fonds indiciels versus une firme de placement qui a fait ses preuves.


Milton Friedman's A Monetary History of the United States, co-written with Anna Schwartz, advances the argument that what made the "great contraction" so severe was not the downturn in the business cycle, protectionism, or the 1929 stock market crash in themselves, but the collapse of the banking system during three waves of panics over the 1930–33 period.[42]
I predict action with Iran and North Korea will make news. Looks like peace-deal being worked on in Iran but the US will be at war with Iran this year in a way similar to Gulf War. Iran will be destroyed militarily by US and UK. North Korea uses the situation as chance to pull something but they find out US can fight 3 major wars at the same time if needed. Korea will soon be united as the North falls after a war in next 36 months. Cuba tends to try to avoid openness again a short time then all clears and US business-people will be going there to start building projects as Cuba becomes tourism centre of Tropics. I also predict that Russia invades another nation late summer then has to pull out. (Abridged by editor as post far too long)

Other than that, just remember that this is a GOOD necessary correction that is happening. “To the moon!!!” euphoria MUST come down and eliminate those who don’t belong in this market. Don’t panic, and start educating yourself on market trends and chart analysis instead of buying and/selling on the whim…. if you want to succeed in this market. We all got affected, but it’s those with the knowledge of understanding that corrections after a mass bull run are necessary, that can sleep better at night 😉.

Watched CNN and CNBC for first time in years today. Then went over to Fox for a bit.. Very little info on world market crash today.. It is stunning how information is being skewed to the masses. All they were really talking about was Trump and HilLary, and oh yes those brave American terrorist beaters. The depth of denial in our country is breathtaking. I feel like I am living in an alternate reality, the world is crashing around our ears and very few seem to give a rats ass, unbelievable. Went and had two of my rifles bore sighted , zeroing them agian at range tomorrow. Bought 500.00 of emergency food, and ordered a good solar watch I have been looking at.Picking up extra 1000 rounds of Ar, and 250 rounds for my 308. Feel like I have very little time to finish preps. I also ordered a cast iron wood stove and am picking up 4 cords of wood this weekend. I hate feeling this paranoid but damn how can one take a sane look at our world and not be. God bless and protect you all in the coming weeks.
During the 2019 - 2020 time period expect to see economic chaos, wars, terrorist attacks, disease epidemics, great earthquakes, volcanos, asteroids hit earth. But how about in the past, were there any particular planetary alignments during times of economic problems? Yes, there is a general pattern we shall discuss here. During the October 1987 and October 1929 stock exchange crashes, the Planet Saturn was in the Astrological sign of Sagittarius. The significance of this is that Sagittarius, the combined horse/man, with Saturn having a connection in Greek / Roman / Etruscan mythology to agriculture as well as weghts and measures and coins, means that Saturn in Sagittarius represents the third Horseman of the Apocalypse, economic depression. When Saturn is in Sagittarius you may get the trigger event, such as a stock market crash, that begins an economic depression.

So, I should go ahead and take that last $15 I have in the bank out?? (better yet ill use it to fill up a gas can) Looks like this isn’t going to end well. The problem is the talking bimbos on the idiot box keep telling the lotus eaters of this world that everything is fine. (And they believe them!!) Have you tried to wake some of these people up to the fact that this will not end well?? My friends all thought I was crazy when I decided to move to the country to an off grid cabin in the woods two years ago, still not 100% ready but at least I don’t have to walk among them. God bless and prep on!

I've posted a Guest Blog Entry at the www.MyRetirementBlog.com site. It's entitled What If Everything You Thought You Knew About Retirement Planning Turned Out To Be Wrong? Juicy Excerpt: I never went to investing school. I never managed a big fund. It shouldn’t be possible for me to be the first person to develop a retirement calculator that gets the numbers right. I mean, come on! But the numbers generated by my retirement calculator are very different from the numbers generated by all…
(1)1998=666x3, and 1999 has 666 upside down, and 666 is the number of the Antichrist (also called The Beast) in Revelation 13, I believe these numbers are connected with his appearance in year 2000 (as Russia's President Putin), and there will be a powerful satanic influence in the world (related to Putin) in 2018 - 2019, that relates to the rise of the Antichrist Putin. Revelation is the last chapter of the Bible, and includes a series of prophecies of catastrophic events-- wars, earthquakes, diseases, economic chaos, and the arrival of the Antichrist. Angels are also mentioned in Revelation, such as an angel from the East in Revelation 7, another Angel in Revelation 10. Many people believe the prophecies of the Bible are coming true now, as described in Revelation; the popularity of the excellent book "The Bible Code" by Michael Drosnin, (see this page for more discussion of it, and this page on the King James version Bible Code) indicates the interest of people in Bible prophecy. Another interesting book: "The Da Vinci Code", by Dan Brown, is about the Biblical-related mystery concerning Mary Magdalene, and the legend that she actually married Jesus Christ, and had children by him, whose descendants were kings of France, and that the blood line has been traced to present times by a secret society in Europe. See this page for relevant discussion on this subject. As described in the prophecies of Revelation, the Antichrist is the son of Satan, a Satanic imitation of Christ. The Antichrist will be assisted by the False Prophet, who is the Second Beast of Revelation 13. The False Prophet is said to work apparent miracles, including "bringing fire down from heaven". The Antichrist is described as having the mouth of a lion, feet of a bear, and gets his power from the dragon: the bear is Russia, the dragon is Red China and also Satan, and the mouth of a lion I think is Hong Kong, the former British colony that is now part of China. This indicates a Russia-Red China military alliance. A second meaning of the lion is Iran, where before the Islamic Revolution Iran had a Lion on its flag, indicating a Russia-China-Iran military alliance, with Russia helping Iran build the A-Bomb by helping it with its nuclear program, and Russia has been selling military equipment such as missles to Iran. The "mouth of a lion" could be Iran. Also, note that a Russia-China military alliance has formed in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) which consists now of Russia, China, and 4 Central asian Countries, and which met in October 2005, and there was a Russia-China joint military exercise in 2005. Clearly the SCO was formed as an alliance against the U.S. and Western Europe. And more countries may join the SCO. The SCO may actually develop into a confederation of 10 states led by the Antichrist Putin, the red 10 horned beast of Revelation 13. Also, it is possible that Belarus may unify with Russia, so it is shown in the drawing below. "The little horn" is a name for the Antichrist from the Book of Daniel (note Putin's small size), so St. Petersburg Russia is where this little horn of the red beast has grown.
Unfortunately we are going to the brink of serious global conflict, but it will be okay in the end. I was very unhappy with Trump’s timing of the North Korea/South Korea ‘peace’ talks as he did it on Mercury Retrograde, exactly the same cycle that Chamberlain appeased Hitler. What we have to trust and hope for is the mini Age of Aquarius which comes from Christmas 2019 when people power and one-world thinking will prevail. What you need to remember about 1935 is the anti-Semitism too. We just saw this in Britain and it affected this week’s elections, working against the Labour party. So, history really does repeat. Take a look at Tesla and Mr. Musk. That’s my big tip. Their charts show exact matches in late Scorpio and Jupiter (abundance) is headed there, later this year.
We can see that Mercury dashas do not generally correlate with higher prices and fall well below the +6%/year historical norm for stocks. The best performing period occurred during Jupiter-Mercury but even there, Mercury revealed its bearish tendencies since it marked the biggest crash in history. The overall positive price effect from 1985-1988 was largely the result of Jupiter's overriding influence. It is perhaps no coincidence that the greatest bull market in history occurred during the Jupiter dasha from 1981 to 1997. The only other strongly positive period occurred during the Sun dasha. Here we can see the combined effect of two 11th house planets (gains!) fending off whatever bearish influences they encountered. Looking ahead to Mercury's next major dasha period which begins in 2016, it's hard to be optimistic about the stock market's performance.
I recently posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Budgets Are Sexy blog entitled When Stock Prices Crash, Where Does the Money Go? Juicy Excerpt: We can bid stock prices up to any level we want. We can all vote ourselves raises if we like. The only penalty is that, when we bid them up too high, they must crash back down in the following years. What is made from nothing must eventually return to nothing. It always happens that way. It always will happen that way. Now you know. Lotsa good…

The answer was simple – don’t explain the meme, but categorise it. After a meme is approved on the market, it is split into one of three categories: penny stocks (low-end, unpopular memes), text-based memes, and image based memes. Of course, this system is not without its flaws – some memes could easily fit into multiple categories, but it seems to work.
The Tesco supermarket chain is involved in litigation such as the Ward v Tesco Stores Ltd and Tesco Supermarkets Ltd v Nattrass cases. Tesco have been criticized for aggressively pursuing critics of the company in Thailand. Writer and former MP Jit Siratranont faced up to two years in jail and a £16.4 million libel damages claim for saying that Tesco was expanding aggressively at the expense of small local retailers. Tesco served him with writs for criminal defamation and civil libel. The Thai court dismissed the case, ruling that the criticism made by the defendant was 'in good faith by way of fair comment on any person or thing subjected to public criticism'.[140]
In the next 10-15 years the  market will go through such major transformations economists/brokers/bankers and financial people won’t recognize it as the same entity it once was. I think we will see instability for a long time as the market re-organizes, and gets restructured under Pluto’s influence. Which means during this long period we may see wild fluctuations as new things become uncovered, and new laws are put in place to shore up the bleeding. 
Set forth below are eight Guest Blog Entries discussing various aspects of the Valuation-Informed Indexing investing strategy and on the Passion Saving money management strategy. 1) The Future of Investing, at the Get Rich Slowly forum (this is actually a thread-starter at a discussion board rather than a Guest Blog Entry -- I put it forward in this form at the request of J.D. Roth, the owner of both the blog and the forum). 2) Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work (this is actually a…

I’ve posted Entry #418 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called The Shiller Revolution Is About Shifting the Focus from Economics to Emotions. Juicy Excerpt: The Shiller investor would have been frightened by those gains. He would not have seen them as something to celebrate; he would likely have characterized them as “out of control.” All investors want the market to be as rational as possible; we have our retirement money invested in it. The difference, though, is that Buy-and-Holders see nothing concerning about big price gains — they are caused by economic developments as much as are small gains. Valuation-Informed Indexers, in contrast, see bull-market gains as emotion-generated gains. Times of high valuations are times of irrational exuberance. The times in which the market delivers big gains are the most dangerous times for stock investors. Related PostsValuation-Informed Indexing #267: Take Valuations Seriously and You Will Discover Things That You Were Not Initially Even Seeking to DiscoverValuation-Informed Indexing #260 : Shiller’s Ideas Should Be Treated as Mainstream IdeasValuation-Informed Indexing #268: Chase Utley’s “Dirty” Slide and Robert Shiller’s “Dirty” ResearchValuation-Informed Indexing #265: P/E10 Permits Us to Quantify Investor EmotionValuation-Informed Indexing #261: Unlike Long-Term Returns, Short-Term Return Sequences Are Highly UnpredictableValuation-Informed Indexing #255: How Developments Like the Greek Debt Crisis Affect Stock Prices
The racial composition of stock market ownership shows households headed by whites are nearly four and six times as likely to directly own stocks than households headed by blacks and Hispanics respectively. As of 2011 the national rate of direct participation was 19.6%, for white households the participation rate was 24.5%, for black households it was 6.4% and for Hispanic households it was 4.3% Indirect participation in the form of 401k ownership shows a similar pattern with a national participation rate of 42.1%, a rate of 46.4% for white households, 31.7% for black households, and 25.8% for Hispanic households. Households headed by married couples participated at rates above the national averages with 25.6% participating directly and 53.4% participating indirectly through a retirement account. 14.7% of households headed by men participated in the market directly and 33.4% owned stock through a retirement account. 12.6% of female headed households directly owned stock and 28.7% owned stock indirectly.[14]
Tesco has been targeted by protesters complaining the supermarket chain sells goods made in Israel, with most complaints being about products emanating from Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Protests generally occur when Israeli military operations are being carried out in the Gaza Strip or the West Bank. A protester was arrested at a protest at a shop in Birmingham on 16 August 2014.[161]
I recently wrote a Guest Blog Entry for the Money and Such blog entitled We're All Better Off As a Result of the Stock Crash. Juicy Excerpt: If you have one-third less in your portfolio today than you had pre-crash, you have a better chance of meeting your retirement goal in 10 years than you possessed pre-crash. Juicy Excerpt #2: We need to assure people to persuade them to stay invested in stocks. But we cannot assure them without letting them know how important valuations are to…
As of 2015, there are a total of 60 stock exchanges in the world with a total market capitalization of $69 trillion. Of these, there are 16 exchanges with a market capitalization of $1 trillion or more, and they account for 87% of global market capitalization. Apart from the Australian Securities Exchange, these 16 exchanges are based in one of three continents: North America, Europe and Asia.[4]
Vanguard tracks data to predict the likelihood of a recession at certain points in the future. In recent years, the company has put the probability of a recession six months out at close to 10 percent. Now, Vanguard says the chances of one by late 2020 are between 30 and 40 percent. That’s Vanguard’s highest-ever estimate for that time frame, Mr. Davis said. (A six-month forecast reported a greater than 40 percent probability before the recession that started in December 2007.)
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