But you should also crunch a few numbers and then do a little soul searching. Estimate how Vanguard's suggested mix would have performed during the late 2007-through-early 2009 slump, when stock prices declined nearly 60% in value and investment-grade bonds gained about 7%. If you think you would cave and begin selling in the face of such a loss, you might want to dial back your target stock position a bit.
There are more millennials because they started from higher birth levels than the baby boomers. But the slope of the wave of baby boomers from 1936 to 1961 is like a huge 10-foot wave. The millennials will never have that growth rate even at their full peak spending period. They won’t take us to new heights. So the economy basically goes sideways as far as the eye can see. Demographics are going to be shrinking, even in the next boom.
Other than that, just remember that this is a GOOD necessary correction that is happening. “To the moon!!!” euphoria MUST come down and eliminate those who don’t belong in this market. Don’t panic, and start educating yourself on market trends and chart analysis instead of buying and/selling on the whim…. if you want to succeed in this market. We all got affected, but it’s those with the knowledge of understanding that corrections after a mass bull run are necessary, that can sleep better at night 😉.

Usually, HFT programs and computer trading works without a hitch. But once in a while problems do crop up. Back on Aug. 24, 2015, the United States’ three major stock indexes plunged on the open, but would recover much of their losses by midday. Among the reasons blamed for the dip were market makers and HFT traders. With so many stocks within the S&P 500 failing to open on time, and a number of exchange-traded funds under trading halts, HFTs and other high-speed traders shut down their systems, removing much-needed liquidity from the marketplace and exacerbating the early-day decline.
A few nights ago I dreamed that I was in my house, at a bottom of a hill area. Some explosion happened and the hill gave way. The houses in front of me collapsed row by row and by the time it stopped 7 or 8 blocks of houses were gone. My house was perched on the edge and water was rising. I panicked to get my most valuable belongings out as there was still a threat to the house. I could smell the water and mud.
Vashistha’s technique is simple. Working through a translator named Anup, I gave him my place of birth (Princeton, N.J.) and the date and time (down to the minute: June 5, 1986, 8:13 a.m.) before he put the information into a Nepali app called SkyVision to see what was happening in the skies at that moment. Then he mapped the planetary configurations on paper, forming a grid-like schema that represented various areas of my destiny: health, wealth, love, and longevity.
First, take a look at where you now stand, by which I mean make sure you really know how your money is currently invested. The single most important thing you want to confirm is your asset allocation, or the percentage of your holdings that are invested in stocks vs. bonds. That will determine how your portfolio holds up if the market takes a major dive.
JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic has previously concluded that the big shift away from actively managed investing -- through the rise of index funds, exchange-traded funds and quantitative-based trading strategies -- has escalated the danger of market disruptions. He and his colleagues wrote in a separate note Monday of the potential for a future “Great Liquidity Crisis.”
I've posted my second Guest Blog Entry at the Arbor Investment Planner blog. It's called Asset Allocation Advisors Cause Financial Crisis. Juicy Excerpt: There is no study supporting Buy-and-Hold. The idea that academic research supports this approach is a myth. People really do believe in it; both experts and ordinary investors. But they don’t believe in it because of a study they have read. They believe in it because experts endorse it and because it is rarely challenged. We have…

Juicy Moderator Comment: I’d be interested to see why you don’t agree with the views stated here…. I’d like to hear the arguments. I assume that you’re tired of hearing the same view points over and over again, but there are some of us who aren’t part of this history and won’t mind reading different ideas (given that they are made appropriately) on investing. If I get tired of the alleged ‘trolling’ done by anyone to anyone else, I’ll make sure to mediate the debate accordingly.

Categories: TescoRetail companies of the United KingdomArts and crafts retailersClothing retailers of the United KingdomConvenience storesMultinational companies headquartered in EnglandAccounting scandalsScandals in EnglandSupermarkets of the United KingdomSupermarkets of MalaysiaSupermarkets of Northern IrelandSupermarkets of PolandSupermarkets of the Czech RepublicBritish companies established in 1919Retail companies established in 19191919 establishments in EnglandCompanies listed on the London Stock ExchangeBritish brands


Apple, Memes, and Business: BUSINESS $1,000,000,000,000 Aug 2 Apple becomes the first publicly traded U.S. company to hit $1 trillion in stock market valuation Apple has become the first publicly traded U.S. company to hit $1 trillion in stock market valuation. The company’s stock rose 3 percent after their strong third-quarter earnings report earlier this week.
FOR much of the past two years, market watchers have had little to write about, apart from the passing of one stock-index milestone after another. The events of the past week, however, have shaken the financial world awake. A recent, upward zag in bond yields seemed to signal the arrival of a new theme in market movements. Stock prices confirmed it, and then some. Over the past week, American stocks have dropped about 7%, punctuated by a breathtaking, record-setting plunge on Monday. The Dow Jones stock index recorded its largest ever one-day drop, of more than 1,000 points. In percentage terms the decline, of more than 4%, was the biggest since 2011.
Blind optimism over the tax cuts have led Wall Street analysts to produce a 2019 forward earnings estimate that's 46% greater than the most recent 12-month operating earnings for the S&P 500, he said. "The combination of extreme valuations and extreme earnings expectations creates a situation that's ripe for disappointment," wrote Hussman in a recent blog post on his company site.

In 2007, Warren Buffett bet hedge fund manager Ted Seides $1 million for charity that a fund indexed to the S&P 500 would beat five of Seides’s favorite hedge funds over 10 years. The S&P returned 7.1 percent annually; the five funds returned 2.2 percent. Buffett didn’t just win the bet, he won an argument about investing. Professional money managers look for patterns in the markets or divine signs on a balance sheet. Sometimes their systems work well for a while. But time, or Cronus, grinds most of them down, and few beat the S&P in the long run.

In a 2003 paper by Vissing-Jørgensen attempts to explain disproportionate rates of participation along wealth and income groups as a function of fixed costs associated with investing. Her research concludes that a fixed cost of $200 per year is sufficient to explain why nearly half of all U.S. households do not participate in the market.[18] Participation rates have been shown to strongly correlate with education levels, promoting the hypothesis that information and transaction costs of market participation are better absorbed by more educated households. Behavioral economists Harrison Hong, Jeffrey Kubik and Jeremy Stein suggest that sociability and participation rates of communities have a statistically significant impact on an individual’s decision to participate in the market. Their research indicates that social individuals living in states with higher than average participation rates are 5% more likely to participate than individuals that do not share those characteristics.[19] This phenomenon also explained in cost terms. Knowledge of market functioning diffuses through communities and consequently lowers transaction costs associated with investing.


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Tesco made a commitment to corporate social responsibility in the form of contributions of 1.87% in 2006 of its pre-tax profits to charities and local community organizations.[121] This compares favourably with Marks & Spencer, whose 1.51% is lower than Sainsbury's 7.02%.[122] This figure, £42 million, is lower than the amount of money reported to have been avoided in tax during 2007 (see below). Will Hutton, in his role as chief executive of The Work Foundation, in 2007 praised Tesco for leading the debate on corporate responsibility.[123] However Intelligent Giving has criticized the company for directing all "staff giving" support to the company's Charity of the Year.[124]

I predict that the United Kingdom – Britain, will become a federalist state by the 2020’s. With a federal government and monarchy. Likewise, I believe that the British government will be instrumental in establishing a new EU – European Federation of Nations, with a potential return to an EU appointed Assembly similar to that of the United Nations General Assembly, instead of the current European Parliament, with the Commission becoming the civil service for the EU, and the Council of Ministers and national governments being more involved and effective. The so called Islamic State caliphate will largely fail – but will eventually became a region of Earth, the Islamic Union of nations caliphate, I therefore predict that you will see negotiations between all Islamic countries, leading up to the creation of an Islamic Union – caliphate.
You see, the economy runs in cycles – the pace of growth (keeping in mind that the stock market should reflect somewhat the real economy, that’s for another question though) expands and contracts naturally. In fact, one of the roles of the Federal Reserve, and many other central banks, is to smooth out business cycles, as stability is viewed as a public good.
By 2014, Tesco appeared to have lost some of its appeal to customers.[109] The share price lost 49 per cent of its value up to October as it struggled to fend off competition from rivals Aldi and Lidl.[110] In October 2014, Tesco suspended 8 executives following its announcement the previous month that it had previously overstated its profits by £250 million. The misreporting resulted in almost £2.2 billion being wiped off the value of the company’s stock market value. The suspended executives included former commercial director Kevin Grace and UK managing director Chris Bush.[111][112] The profit overstatement was subsequently revised upwards to £263 million following an investigation by the accountancy firm Deloitte, and it was clarified that the inflated profit figure was the result of Tesco bringing forward rebates from suppliers. The Serious Fraud Office (SFO) confirmed on 29 October 2014 that it was carrying out a criminal investigation into the accounting irregularities but declined to give further details.[113]
I am closely following your predictions. You hit the bull’s eye by Brexit prediction. My interest, in particular, will be on 1) resignation of Hillary Clinton from politics because of the release of documents that reveal financial corruption and falsification of government documents, 2) “Serious threat of escalating conflict between China and India over northern border of Kashmir” – I think China’s assurance to Pakistan that it would cooperate in case of any foreign invasion is enough hint for this prediction coming true, 3) “Alliance between Russia and USA partitions Syria. Syria is left like a wasteland.” – when will the people in this area find peace and under what conditions? They are trapped like pawns in strength show game of the superpowers.
Finally, as you think about your allocation there are a few things to consider. Generally, lower risk bonds hold up better during stressed markets. U.S. Treasury bonds have historically risen in value during extreme market stress. It's not guaranteed but may be helpful to portfolios if history is any guide. Also, depending on the nature of the crisis diversifying assets such as commodities, including gold, or real estate can be helpful. Again, these won't work every time, for example in 2008-9 real estate was the epicenter of the crisis but spreading your bets can help. Finally, within stocks diversification is useful. We've seen high valuations in U.S. blue chips in the 1970s, U.S. tech in the 1990s and Japanese investments in the 1980s, each was met with nasty price declines on the other side. Rather than trying to predict these events, it can be best to spread your bets across sectors, geographies and other categories, so that if the next crash does focus on one specific area, then you won't be wiped out.
Together, the 1929 stock market crash and the Great Depression formed the largest financial crisis of the 20th century.[30] The panic of October 1929 has come to serve as a symbol of the economic contraction that gripped the world during the next decade.[31] The falls in share prices on October 24 and 29, 1929 were practically instantaneous in all financial markets, except Japan.[32]
Usually, HFT programs and computer trading works without a hitch. But once in a while problems do crop up. Back on Aug. 24, 2015, the United States’ three major stock indexes plunged on the open, but would recover much of their losses by midday. Among the reasons blamed for the dip were market makers and HFT traders. With so many stocks within the S&P 500 failing to open on time, and a number of exchange-traded funds under trading halts, HFTs and other high-speed traders shut down their systems, removing much-needed liquidity from the marketplace and exacerbating the early-day decline.
Possibly the Antichrist was elected as Russian President Putin in the spring of 2000. See the Russia section for a discussion of this and some interesting facts on President Vladimir Putin. Also indicating Putin is the Antichrist: Putin visited Rome on November 4 2003, on the day there was the largest solar eruption from the sun in history. And November 8 2003, during a lunar eclipse, there was a hexagon astrology pattern (6 sides, as in 666) that I relate to the Antichrist Putin, also on the Putin page.

In 1918, world flu epidemic, as the Red Beast formed in Russia with the Russian Revolution (the beginning of the Antichrist's Evil Empire in Russia). And a bird flu virus infecting chickens and birds in Asia is a concern, since it could mutate and combine with swine flu and become a human pandemic. The Swine Flu virus spreading in 2018 - 2019 could combine with Bird Flu, creating a more deadly virus.
Le crash éclair du 6 mai 2010 a d'abord été expliqué comme une réaction à la crise de la dette souveraine grecque10 avant d'être rapidement imputé à une erreur de saisie de la part d'un opérateur de marché (une erreur communément appelée dans le jargon financier « fat finger » (gros doigt en français), correspondant à la saisie erronée d'une quantité largement supérieure au montant voulu). La CNBC ainsi que d'autres sources journalistiques ont déclaré qu'un trader avait saisi un ordre de vente de titres Procter & Gamble avec un « B » pour billions (milliards en français) au lieu de « M » pour millions. Cette information a été jugée crédible, le titre Procter & Gamble entrant dans la composition de l'indice Dow Jones ayant vu son cours chuter de plus de 37 %. La banque américaine Citigroup fut désignée comme responsable de cette erreur de saisie.

It is just another business cycle, albeit an extended one, coming to an end: not TEOTWAWKI. Therefore it is safe to say that the downturn will be extended too because foreclosures (as an example) have not been assimilated from the last crash yet; and a new round of bankruptcies and foreclosures will follow the economic decline for those who are levered.
I think worldwide economic chaos could occur during 2018 - 2020, as the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse ride, with the Third Horseman being Economic Chaos. World economics could see stock market swings in 2019 - 2020. Watch out for Europe's economy having problems 2019 - 2020. There could be continued economic problems in Europe. The 3rd horseman of the apocalypse economic chaos rides. Note that this is a case of "the road to Hell is paved with good intentions". Good intentions: the Euro single currency seemed like a good idea. Road to Hell: some of the countries (Greece and others) with uncontrolled deficits and borrowing dragged down all of Europe's economy. And Putin may want to take over more of the former Soviet Union countries, similar to Ukraine.
Set forth below are links to eight Guest Blog Entries that I wrote on the Valuation-Informed Indexing strategy: 1) The Good Side of Stocks' Lost Decade, at the Consumerism Commentary blog; 2) Six Dangerous Investing Myths, at the Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance blog; 3) How To Use Valuation-Informed Indexing: Part One, at the Balance Junkie blog; 4) How To Use Valuation-Informed Indexing:Part Two, at the Balance Junkie blog; 5) Retirement Planning As If Valuations Mattered, at…
Statistically, major market corrections occur about once every decade, so the probability is better than even, less than unity. Personally I’ll be watching 2019 which will be the year following the consequences of the tax cuts. By then, the tax cuts will have been price in and should not longer be a factor. I suspect that 2018 will be a year of watching and seeing how much earnings actually go with the tax cut; markets are always ‘forward-looking.’ They react not to earnings, but the promise of future earnings. Right now 2018 looks like the “Buy on the rumor” side of the equation, and that 2019 might be the “sell on the news” side.
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