Blind optimism over the tax cuts have led Wall Street analysts to produce a 2019 forward earnings estimate that's 46% greater than the most recent 12-month operating earnings for the S&P 500, he said. "The combination of extreme valuations and extreme earnings expectations creates a situation that's ripe for disappointment," wrote Hussman in a recent blog post on his company site.
I have also seen L.A. In rubble from an earthquake. I was shown a part of the polar shelf breaking free and causing flooding on the east coast. I foresee that subway systems should be watched closely this year around the world. There is an extreme increase in spiritual awareness and unconditional love is openly embraced. I predict that the upper management of corporate banks are investigated and there will be arrests and thus starts the fall of the powerful.
I have the overwhelming feeling that California is going to have a mass earthquake that will split the state not just in the San Francisco area but in Los Angeles as well. I’m a native of the state and the last time I went back to visit family, I could hardly wait to leave. If there is an earthquake in China, I predict it will start a ripple effect. Had this feeling for 2 years now. Hope I’m wrong.
This is a remarkable passage because it resembles closely what one would read in an opinion-based analysis of a market event. The confusing illusion, of course, is that hindsight narratives of this kind could offer anything towards avoiding, let alone preventing, future disasters. In reality, no amount of knowledge of a sandpile system can possibly produce a usable forecast of the size and location of a major avalanche. It may be the same with a stock market crash.
It is well documented that prices tend to go up faster before a crash. This may seem counter-intuitive, but it makes sense in terms of “rational expectations.” For investors to remain invested in a market that is becoming more risky, prices have to rise faster in order to compensate for the growing probability of a crash. Otherwise, people would exit the market earlier and a bubble would never form.
However, in 1929 we didn’t have have the same rules, regulations and stop gaps that were put into place later so even though the aspects were not as insane as they were in the 2008 chart – it clearly was enough for an innate volatile and unchecked market to plunge. In this chart Uranus is going through the 8th (other people’s money 8th and Uranus=volatility) Pluto was making an applying square to the Moon in the 8th and the lights were Mercury/Sun midpoint on the natal Jupiter/Neptune conjunction which opposes the natal Saturn/Moon opposition. So basically there is a T-Square from Pluto in Cancer being triggered by those faster moving planets. And the general volatility of Uranus in the 8th and the time period where there were less controls over the market made it take a plunge. Neptune was also conjunct the cusp – just hitting the first house. That big shift over that 1st house on the angle was also a major contributor despite the fact that it was making a trine to Venus. Whenever a big planet hits that point something should happen. Otherwise that T-square (by the Pluto in Cancer transit) should have had a counterpoint when Pluto hits that same point in opposition like – oops, NOW!
The rise of the institutional investor has brought with it some improvements in market operations. There has been a gradual tendency for "fixed" (and exorbitant) fees being reduced for all investors, partly from falling administration costs but also assisted by large institutions challenging brokers' oligopolistic approach to setting standardized fees. A current trend in stock market investments includes the decrease in fees due to computerized asset management termed Robo Advisers within the industry. Automation has decreased portfolio management costs by lowering the cost associated with investing as a whole.
Most of the professional investors are signaling signs of a market collapse in next two three years before 2020 starts. Market crash in 2000 was sparked by technology sector failure and 2008 crash was sparked by real estate and property. But today almost all sectors have been overvalued. Many sectors listed at S&P 500 are trading at the highest level seen in last ten years.