Donald Trump, Memes, and Recess: A Short History Lesson 1928 Republicans take control of the Presidency, the House and the Senate. Followed shortly by the Great Depression, massive unemployment and a Stock Market crash. 2000 Republicans take control of the Presidency, the House and the Senate. Followed shortly by two recessions including the Great Recession, massive unemployment and a Stock Market crash. 2016 Republicans take control of the Presidency, the House and the Senate. Anyone want to guess what happens next? Real Truth Now Herbert Hoover was a Businessman. Donald Trump is a "Businessman."
I have no illusions about the Islamic world. 9/11 was only the start. Anybody who has read the Koran knows that it is a book of violence teaching violence against infidels. The Koran appeals to believers to conquer foreign lands and subjugate the natives. The last time the West has successfully forced out Islam was in 1683 at the Gates of Vienna. As a result, European civilisation could flourish and develop freedom and democracy. This time Europe will take a much more sinister turn, and a dark and bloody age will follow. As Europeans we have stopped believing in our own values. We are certainly not willing to defend them in this postmodern age of cultural relativism. We have become complacent and take our freedoms for granted to the extent that we cannot imagine any other circumstances. In future, Europeans, including the UK, will be truly tested. They will have to decide which values they believe in and what they are prepared to defend.

The bigger they come, the harder they fall.  Currently, we are in the terminal phase of an “everything bubble” which has had ten years to grow.  It is the biggest financial bubble that our country has ever seen, and experts are warning that when it finally bursts we will experience an economic downturn that is even worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s.  Of course many of us in the alternative media have been warning about what is coming for quite some time, but now even many in the mainstream media have jumped on the bandwagon.  The Economist is one of the most prominent globalist mouthpieces in the entire world, and so I was stunned when I came across one of their articles earlier today that was entitled “Another economic downturn is just a matter of time”.  When the alternative media and globalist media outlets are both preaching economic doom, that is a very clear sign that big trouble is imminent.
As we can see, the majority of planets here are listed as "neutral". That doesn't mean, however, that they have no effect on the markets. It just means that all things being equal, they do not have an intrinsic bias in regard to sentiment and prices. All planets, even the more clearly positive or negative ones, can exhibit a variety of price effects depending on the other planets and chart factors they are interacting with at any given time. Although all planets and houses possess certain natural inclinations, how they will eventually effect the market is more dependent on their temporary condition. For example, a positive planet like Venus if transiting over a malefic planet like Ketu in a malefic house like the 8th is more likely to coincide with a drop in the market. That's because the natural 'bullishness' of Venus has been corrupted, so to speak, by its temporary negative situation. Conversely, although Saturn is the planet most closely associated with pessimism and bear markets, if it forms a favourable alignment with positive aspects (e.g. 120 degrees) involving benefic planets, it often marks an upswing in prices. This is why it is crucial to take into account the whole chart rather than the motion of a single planet.
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Memes, Recess, and Depression: A Short History Lesson 1928 Republicans take control of the Presidency, the House and the Senate. Followed shortly by the Great Depression, massive unemployment and a Stock Market crash. 2000 Republicans take control of the Presidency, the House and the Senate. Followed shortly by two recessions including the Great Recession, massive unemployment and a Stock Market crash. 2016-Republicans take control of the Presidency, the House and the Senate. Anyone want to guess what happens next? Real Truth Ayup. Image from Real Truth Now.
I did some digging on those predictions. And i discovered that you were right, later sai baba denied those predictions. However, many people predicted indo-china or indo-pak war. Like anton johanson,viswaranjan brahmachari etc. According to some of them india’s sovereighnity could come under threat. Do you see any such thing occuring in india’s future?
Pour ma part, je vise une diversification géographique sur trois FNB (1/3 Canada, 1/3 U.S et 1/3 reste du monde). Ainsi, j’envisage investir dans un fonds strictement canadien, un autre strictement U.S. et un autre pour le reste du monde (excluant l’Amérique du Nord). Cependant, je ne suis pas planificateur financier, alors je ne peux pas légalement vous conseiller.
So, when will the stock market crash again? There is no way to accurately predict a bear market. The FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google) have led the bull market over the last 9 years. If these stocks fail to keep their earnings momentum going, investors may lose confidence in the market. So far only Facebook and Netflix have disappointed investors, while Apple remains as strong as ever.
Johnson's advice rings true regardless of whether or not you DIY or hire somebody to manage your wealth for you. In this article, we’re going to lay out some of the ways people can give themselves a crash course in investing. But first, it should be noted that to avoid feeling overwhelmed you should pick an area that interests you and start there. For example, do you want to learn more about real estate investing? Then stick to that and avoid everything else for now.
Merci pour ce texte. Nous plaçons de l’argent de côté depuis quelques années, mais dans des CPG ou fond commun coûteux. Je m’intéresse depuis peu à d’autres forme de placements qui seraient avantageux pour notre porte-feuille et pas celui de notre conseiller! Je sais que je dois encore lire et apprendre sur le sujet, mais votre texte me dit que je suis sur la bonne voie. J’ai commencé il y a 2 mois avec un compte chez tangerine; il coûte moins cher que mes fonds communs et j’espère qu’il rapportera plus! Je m’étais dit que je débuterais avec cela, le temps d’apprendre et de trouver mieux. Je vise par la suite l’ouverture d’un compte de courtage et me lancer dans cet univers. Mon but premier étant de fournir une retraite à mon conjoint qui n’a pas pu se préparer adéquatement et à qui il reste moins de temps qu’il en restait… Ensuite ce sera autour du rééé. À 2,31% de RFG, il ne rapporte pas grand chose si je tiens compte de l’inflation et du rendement…

Now is the time to make sure you have a portfolio that you could live with through a crash. A typical crash will feel very different if you are 100% invested in stocks, than if you have some of your portfolio invested in bonds and other assets. The time to work out the right allocation for you is now, if you determine that you should not be completely in stocks but would rather have a 60%/40% stock/bond allocation, then it's critically important to determine that before a crash occurs. If you don't, you'll experience the worst of both worlds. You'll likely see the greatest losses during the crash, but also fail to benefit fully from any recovery. If you prepare ahead of time, you'll be better able to ride out any market events.

Thank you so much for the detailed reply. Yes, strangely enough identity and security systems software are part of my job! Also, financial freedom is indeed shaping up to be a major focus. I am prepared to deal with change and unknowns over the next few years. Do you have any further thoughts on how to deal with that tricky Uranus opposing Uranus? It sounds worrying. My recent Saturn return was very tough and challenging, and I hope it won’t be anything like that. Thanks again.
Rajeev Prakash Agarwal is a renowned astrologer, based out of central India, with a vast experience of 20 years in astrology. He predicts the trend of stocks, commodities, currencies and bonds around the globe. With an accuracy of over 92%, he has a track record of over a decade in financial markets. He was also the astrologer who predicted the huge crash in January 2008 through advertisements in leading newspapers. Know More

Hi I am glad you said about damaging mother earth as I have been saying to people they can’t keep taking from the ground and blasting as it will mean that things are going to happen like earth quakes as it harming and making things uneven, it is hard for me to put into words what they are doing is going to cause repercussions. I also feel that we all have to look after our own country and our leaders in Australia are letting things happen that are endangering our people and country and by letting in certain people into our country is already back firing on our government as they have let it happen and now the Australian people are seeing and feeling that our government were stupid in the first place even though there was Pauline Hanson speaking out about what she thought should be happening and done that was ignored and she was right all along as it has and is happening. I have also told friends here in Australia not to live near the sea as it is going to happen here and the sea will keep coming in claiming properties and also something else is going to happen and we have seen tsunami in countries like the latest I think was Japan and they are ignoring me thinking it is not going to happen here and already on the coast of Western Australia the see has been claiming properties as the cliffs are being eaten away by the sea, I have said they need to live inland but they pay big prices the live near the ocean and they are going to feel the force of a tsunami and then will they know I was right and not mad in what I have been saying. I can’t say when or where now but it is going to happen and I am curious to see if you are picking anything up on what I have felt about Australia. I also was picking up with Trump was that he was feeling powerful and kept see Abraham Lincoln sitting in this big chair that looked like it was carved out of stone, and I know nothing about Abraham and what he did or stood for other than he was a leader of America. I would love to know what you see for Australia for 2018.
People warned about subprime mortgage loans, derivatives, and too much leverage, but nobody, to my knowledge, said a bursting housing bubble would cause a global crisis that would lead to the demise of venerable financial firms, require trillion-dollar taxpayer bailouts, and cause a recession that rivalled only the Great Depression in its magnitude.

J’ai vécu un peu le même cheminement. Au début de mon parcours, j’investissais dans des fonds communs de placement jusqu’à ce que je réalise que les frais de gestion (3%) sont scandaleux. Puis, je me suis tourné vers le « stock picking ». J’achetais 15-20 titres d’entreprises à travers un compte de courtage en ligne. Certes, ceci nécessitait pas mal de temps et d’énergie pour suivre les titres en question. Plus, je pense qu’il est quasi impossible de battre le rendement du marché de façon constante à long terme. Alors, je me tourne désormais vers les FNB. Le rendement est approximativement le même (sur le long terme), les frais sont très bas et les transactions beaucoup moins nombreuses (3-4 titres à acheter).
Néanmoins, on parle ici d’une solution « tout inclus ». Conséquemment, elle vous accorde très peu de contrôle et de flexibilité, tout en étant plus dispendieuse que celles proposées plus bas. En somme, Tangerine constitue un bon point de départ pour se détacher graduellement de son planificateur financier, mais, selon moi, n’est pas la solution la plus performante.
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In Thailand, Tesco Lotus was a joint venture of the Charoen Pokphand Group and Tesco, but facing criticism over the growth of hypermarkets CP Group sold its Tesco Lotus shares in 2003. In late 2005 Tesco acquired the 21 remaining Safeway/BP shops after Morrisons dissolved the Safeway/BP partnership.[35] In mid-2006 Tesco purchased an 80% stake in Casino's Leader Price supermarkets in Poland, which were then rebranded as small Tesco shops.[36]
Je me suis récemment lancé dans le courtage en ligne avec l’intention de ne pas me casser la tête mais je me retrouve bien embêté parce qu’il y a plusieurs FNB ; certains suivent le marché américain, d’autres suivent le marché canadien, certains doublent un certain marché, etc. Bref, je me demandais s,il existait une ressource qui fait état des différents FNB disponibles et de leurs caractéristiques. Je connais Vanguard mais quand je vais sur leur site internet, je me sens comme quand je lis un livre en cantonnais, c’est plutôt rébarbatif. Y aurait-il un blogueur ou un site internet qui vulgariserait les différentes caractéristiques des FNB?
Venus will conjoin Rahu in Cancer sign on 8th. Mars will aspect this conjunction and will give the Bulls a reason to smile ! Upsurge in the stocks of FMCG, IT, Media, Copper and Heavy Industries sector companies (Reliance, ITC, Marico, Emami, ITI, BHEL etc) will be observed. Mercury will move in Gemini sign on 10th and will be aspected by Saturn & Jupiter. Bullions will see downward movement, whereas stock indices will move Northwards. Sun will conjoin Mercury in Gemini on 15th. The Bulls are suggested to square off the profitable positions at the earliest and book the profit. Bearish trends will be visible in grains, Sugar and vegetables. Since the Solar ingress is falling on Friday, value investors will find good deals in the stocks of Cotton, Yarn and Silk threads sector. (Pioneer Embroideries, Winsome yarn, Trident, Indo Count, Ambika Cotton & Nitin Spinners).

When our Schumpeterian trader from Chicago muses about the relationship between Earth and other celestial bodies, he implies some electromagnetic or gravitational pull. Something sciencey. Weingarten’s financial astrology is more ethereal. More … pagan. The reason Saturn has to deal with limitation or reality is that Saturn is the Roman name of the Greek titan Cronus, aka Father Time. Saturn stands for the passage of time. It is melancholic; it’s why we have the word saturnine. It’s why Weingarten called b.s. on Bitcoin.
The author discusses the application of non-linear modeling techniques on the financial market. Given the behavior of financial market is the result of the inter-working of countless investors, it's very surprising and interesting to see these modeling techniques actually produce some very good results. In particular, the author presents the logic behind the formation and the bursting of bubbles, and, more importantly, provides insight of what we can expect from the financial market in the long term.

Weingarten is prone to soliloquies extolling his “world-class, nobody better” forecasting record. Asked to explain his methodology, he answers in gnomic riddles or not at all. The family office guy asks how financial astrology might relate to SpaceX and other efforts to explore beyond Earth. Weingarten cuts him off and says he can’t give him an “informed decision about how children on the moon will be affected.”

Sadly, that prediction came true to the letter as there was a deadly 4.2 magnitude earthquake that hit Ischia on the 21st August 2017. This prediction hit home as my daughter and her young family were in Naples and had considered a day trip to Ischia on that day. Fortunately, they were okay though sadly Ischia saw a lot of destruction and deaths. Perhaps my personal connection allowed me to make this correct prophecy.
Many factors likely contributed to the collapse of the stock market. Among the more prominent causes were the period of rampant speculation (those who had bought stocks on margin not only lost the value of their investment, they also owed money to the entities that had granted the loans for the stock purchases), tightening of credit by the Federal Reserve (in August 1929 the discount rate was raised from 5 percent to 6 percent), the proliferation of holding companies and investment trusts (which tended to create debt), a multitude of large bank loans that could not be liquidated, and an economic recession that had begun earlier in the summer.

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The “next” Buddha will be born September 3rd of 2016. Born not in the sense of coming out of a womb but of spiritual birth. It will take years for this person to reach their potential and for all to recognize this person as the fifth Buddha. The end of the world starts at the end of 2016 sometime around September, October, November and/or December. This does not mean the world will end physically but that a new way of life, the Age of Aquarius, is just beginning. It’ll take centuries for us to reach that enlightenment. The last Pope, Pope Francis, will not be literally the last Pope but the last Pope before the end of time starts. Just as President Obama was predicted to be the last president before the end of the world. It does not mean there will not be other presidents. The seven years of tribulations starts somewhere by 2016 -2018. (First cleansing or warning). The Second Great Tribulation will occur, according to what I received, probably around 2050-2060. As evil will run rampant in the world still this great cleansing (great devastation )must come for those that are ready to bring about the thousand years of peace (for humankind’s sake and for the planets healing). For those will be the ones that survive and bring…

There are some positive aspects coming up in the next couple of years that will ease the market and after the rebirth could enable the market to be better than before. But these are trines and trines are not fated in the same way squares and conjunctions are, so it’s imperative that everyone get involved politically and demand reform. And as I’ve stated before McCain’s chart would activate the worst possible aspects to the Dow and plummet us into a DEPRESSION here in the US and most likely the world as all markets are connected in our current world.
(12) Asteroid hitting earth. There is a possibility of an asteroid or comet hitting earth within a few years, since it is described in Revelation 8. This is why an asteroid defense is needed, which NASA could build if they were funded to do so. These King James Bible Code matrices indicate there could be an asteroid ocean hit in 2018-2019, the asteroid breaking up into 7 pieces in the atmosphere as it hits, so 7 impacts, and a giant tidal wave resulting that floods coastal cities. This could be the "seven thunders" of Revelation 10:3:
I recently posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Smarter Wallet blog entitled Stock Market Strategy: Market Timing Based on Long-Term Views. Juicy Excerpt: If prices can be wildly wrong in the short term but must be roughly right in the long term, it should be possible to know in advance which way prices are headed (in the long term only, not in the short term) just by knowing the valuation level you are starting from. Researchers have checked the historical data. This explanation, unlike the…

Tesco plc, trading as Tesco, is a British multinational groceries and general merchandise retailer with headquarters in Welwyn Garden City, Hertfordshire, England, United Kingdom.[3] It is the third-largest retailer in the world measured by gross revenues[4][5] and ninth-largest retailer in the world measured by revenues. It has shops in seven countries across Asia and Europe, and is the market leader of groceries in the UK (where it has a market share of around 28.4%), Ireland, Hungary[6] and Thailand.[7][8]
Set forth below are links to Guest Blog Entries I wrote dealing with the Valuation-Informed Indexing strategy and to discussion-board threads relating to the new stock investing approach: 1) What Bogle Says About Valuation-Informed Indexing, at the Balance Junkie site; 2) How Has Buy-and-Hold Survived So Long?, at the Hope to Prosper site; 3) How to Change Your Stock Allocation in Response to Valuation Shifts, at the Free From Broke site; 4) Predicting Stock Returns for Fun and…
Additionally, many choose to invest via the index method. In this method, one holds a weighted or unweighted portfolio consisting of the entire stock market or some segment of the stock market (such as the S&P 500 or Wilshire 5000). The principal aim of this strategy is to maximize diversification, minimize taxes from too frequent trading, and ride the general trend of the stock market (which, in the U.S., has averaged nearly 10% per year, compounded annually, since World War II).
Tesco purchased the restaurant and cafe chain Giraffe in 2013 for £48.6 million.[43] In 2014, it began to open restaurants within some of its shops. The company set up Tesco Family Dining Ltd in 2014 as part of a new department called 'new food experience', including Core Cafes, Giraffe, Decks and Euphorium bakeries. That year, Tesco reached an agreement to take the in-shop cafes run by Compass Group and Elior back under its own control, so as to improve its dining offering.[44]

Adverts in the early 1990s had a man called David, portrayed by Dudley Moore, on the hunt for free-range chickens from France and discovering many goods from around the world to purchase for Tesco.[132] Late 2000s adverts included many celebrities and celebrity voice-overs such as The Spice Girls and the voice of actors James Nesbitt and Jane Horrocks.[133]
The time to invest is 2018 while Jupiter (solutions, breakthroughs, growth) is still in Scorpio in your Eighth House. You’ll see a classic Uranus in Taurus/Jupiter in Scorpio/Saturn in Capricorn pattern kicking off within weeks. Essentially, computers and smart phones will revolutionise currency. Big chances to make or save more, will appear. The dinosaurs of business and banking will get a kicking. Put all that together and you can see why the smart money is on spotting opportunities and using them. You will need to be online and across the news to spot what is on offer.
I've written a Guest Blog Entry for the Stock Trend Investing blog titled Long-Term Trend Investing. Juicy Excerpt: There’s one big flaw to Buy-and-Hold, however. When stocks are overpriced, it can take a long, long time for investors to obtain the average long-term return of 6.5 percent real. The Buy-and-Hold advocates don’t like for investors to learn how long it can take for the average long-term return to apply. How does the idea of waiting 25 years to see a good return on your…
I have watched Dr Who since I was A child, this is the first series I have missed in all these years. I switched off after episode 2 as that was enough for me, now I choose an episode from either the BBC I player or Netflix to watch on a Sunday night, for as long as this Doctor and Chris Chidwell are involved I will not watch this programme nothing against Jodie Whittaker and her co-stars but the BBC have destroyed the programme.
The whole thing is, in essence, pretty much harmless in nature: there’s no real money involved and it’s mostly used to track the life and death of memes. But now the for-real financial nerds at Forbes have decided to write an article analysing the data in a similar fashion to, well, a stock market analysis. And the whole thing is hilarious in a did-they-really-do-that way.
I recently wrote a Guest Blog Entry for the Moolanomy blog entitled The Difference Between the Multiply-by-25 Rule and the 4-Percent Rule. Juicy Excerpt:  I believe strongly that the 4-Percent Rule at some times overstates and at other times understates the amount needed for a safe retirement; at times of high valuations the true safe withdrawal can drop to as low as 2 percent and at times of low valuations it can rise to as high as 9 percent. The Multiply-by-25 Rule isn’t by itself…

The financial system in most western countries has undergone a remarkable transformation. One feature of this development is disintermediation. A portion of the funds involved in saving and financing, flows directly to the financial markets instead of being routed via the traditional bank lending and deposit operations. The general public interest in investing in the stock market, either directly or through mutual funds, has been an important component of this process.
You see, the economy runs in cycles – the pace of growth (keeping in mind that the stock market should reflect somewhat the real economy, that’s for another question though) expands and contracts naturally. In fact, one of the roles of the Federal Reserve, and many other central banks, is to smooth out business cycles, as stability is viewed as a public good.
Stock market crashes are usually caused by more than one factor. In fact, there are often two sets of reasons for a crash. One set of conditions creates the environment for the sell-off, and another set of factors triggers the beginning of the sell-off. Just because there is a market bubble, it doesn’t mean the market will crash. Usually something needs to occur to cause investors to begin selling and buyers to step away from the stock market.
After reading this book, you’ll have the chance to start actualizing your dreams by trading shares of a company on the stock market.  This book will provide you with all of the tools that you’ll need to get started as a beginning stock market investor, without all of the frills that come with learning how to trade stock through an online course or another type of avenue. 
Last year I predicted a ‘world flu epidemic’ toward the end of 2017 or the start of 2018. I feel this could still happen. (10/10 Correct: “‘worst killer flu’ in 50 years” – Headline: The Sun 5th Jan 2018.) There may be a link to biological warfare seeded in multiple countries by North Korea working with a terrorist group. (Happening? “Reports Pyongyang is testing biological weapons for use on ballistic missiles.” Sky Television 27th Dec 2017 – these predictions were posted in October 2017)
There are a few things to bear in mind here. The first is that investors can overestimate their ability to endure losses during the good times. So be a little more conservative in your allocation than you might think. Also, it's not just about having nerves of steel, it's also about how soon you'll need the money in your portfolio. Even if you are a fearless and disciplined investor, it doesn't matter if you need to spend down a big chunk of your portfolio each year. Regardless of your temperament you'll be a forced seller in a weak market, and therefore, considering having some of your assets more conservatively positioned so that they are a more robust source of cash when you need them can make sense.
J’ai 42 ans et j’en suis à mon cinquième conseiller financier. J’ai finalement trouver le bon, qui même à 2.5% de frais, me fait quand même « performer » mon portefeuille dans les alentours de 9% à 11% net de frais. A ces rendements, j’ai aucun problème à donner une somme plus importante à mon conseiller. Je n’ai pas le temps et les connaissances pour obtenir ce genre de rendement. Je suis relativement encore jeune(:)) et mon approche est très aggressive donc en retour j’espère une performance minimum.

In short selling, the trader borrows stock (usually from his brokerage which holds its clients' shares or its own shares on account to lend to short sellers) then sells it on the market, betting that the price will fall. The trader eventually buys back the stock, making money if the price fell in the meantime and losing money if it rose. Exiting a short position by buying back the stock is called "covering." This strategy may also be used by unscrupulous traders in illiquid or thinly traded markets to artificially lower the price of a stock. Hence most markets either prevent short selling or place restrictions on when and how a short sale can occur. The practice of naked shorting is illegal in most (but not all) stock markets.

However, we do life in less-than-traditional times – the effects of the extraordinary monetary policies that the Fed undertook in response to the recession are still working their way though the system, so despite the fact that it’s been almost a decade since the last recession, we quite likely still have room to run. A very wise man once told me that “the bull market [when stocks fairly aggressively go up] doesn’t end when the Fed raises rates, the bull market ends when the Fed STOPS raising rates.” Chairwoman Yellen & Co. have only just begun lifting off the proverbial gas pedal from the Great Recession, and my guess, as well as that of many others, is that we have a ways to go before a full on crash next occurs.
Thank you. You have a strongly Scorpio-Taurus chart so it’s not surprising that you are already involved with blockchain. I just heard the word ‘fingerprints’ answering your question so perhaps there is a fingerprint-ID technology that you are involved with, or could be? (Mind you, I am staying in the former home of Sir Arthur Conan Doyle so perhaps that’s why!) Okay, so with your Uranus at 3 Scorpio you will experience Uranus at 3 Taurus opposite. They call it Uranus Opposition Uranus and we all go through it, but for you it will be about financial freedom. You’ll feel the start of the cycle in May and then by 2019 it will begin to unfold properly. Any opposition is always a challenge and so you can’t expect stability or predictability. There are no ‘knowns’ over the next year or two. It’s all unknowns. You need to bear that in mind in terms of how much time, energy and actual money you invest. Uranus transits are by their nature quite wild and the best analogy I can give you is – imagine you were in New York in 1781 dealing with the end of British rule, British taxes – and the first rumblings of the end of the slave trade. You would probably feel as if you were about to make it all up as you went along. You and others would feel as if you were co-creating the future together. And today your descendants would be rich! The smart money from May 2018 onwards is on people who realise that you have to get on board with a revolution, and that’s you. The trick to Uranus transits is to be watchful and responsive on a daily basis, because the global economy really will be that sensitive. It will change in the blink of an eye, more than once, over a period of many years. In general, from Christmas 2019 onwards, we are moving towards a radically different kind of borrowing and lending model which has far more in common with eBay and Craig’s List than, say, the Bank of America. Stay constantly tuned!
Ninth, Trump was already attacking the Fed when the growth rate was recently 4%. Just think about how he will behave in the 2020 election year, when growth likely will have fallen below 1% and job losses emerge. The temptation for Trump to “wag the dog” by manufacturing a foreign-policy crisis will be high, especially if the Democrats retake the House of Representatives this year.