My main predictions in this area made in 2016 for 2017 was that North Korea would become the focus of world attention and conflict. My main prediction about this last year said: “Kim Jong-un will be fall from power later in the year – maybe December 2017 or January 2018” I know it looks like we are on the brink of war but my feeling is that he will be deposed by his own people. This remains part of my predictions for the time ahead. I also spoke of an arms race happening in the Far East and provocation from China forcing Japan to initiate an arms race. We saw provocations from China so this prediction is still on the cards. I also predicted a “serious threat of escalating conflict between China and India” – which has happened.
Sometimes, the market seems to react irrationally to economic or financial news, even if that news is likely to have no real effect on the fundamental value of securities itself. However, this market behaviour may be more apparent than real, since often such news was anticipated, and a counterreaction may occur if the news is better (or worse) than expected. Therefore, the stock market may be swayed in either direction by press releases, rumors, euphoria and mass panic.
Taki has +15 years of experience in global markets. His methodology is unique and effective, yet easy to understand; it is based on chart analysis combined with intermarket / fundamental / sentiment analysis. His work appeared on major financial outlets like FinancialSense, MarketWatch, ... Email: email@example.com. Twitter: twitter.com/investinghaven
I've posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Consumerism Commentary site titled Are Stock Gains and Losses Real? Juicy Excerpt: Losses suffered starting from super-high prices are never recovered. When you pay more than a fair price for stocks, a portion of your money is going to the purchase of stocks and a portion is going to the purchase of cotton-candy nothingness. Prices always return to fair value. So these price drops are not so much losses as they are the market coming to recognize phony…
I love reading these and often look again for any updates. The world seems to be lurching in to ever more chaos. I hope that things do improve with the war situation overall. We really do not want more war, what we need is peace, harmony and for all the third world countries to be stable and for those people to have the same opportunities as those in the western world. Then there will be peace.
This does not mean that successful investing is impossible; only that the more we learn about market behavior, the more it seems that trying to deal with uncertainty is more important than pretending that we can have any certainty. More precisely, managing risk seems to be a better approach to investing than concocting forecasts on asset returns. This could mean, for example, finding ways of identifying when market participants start to align on one side of a trade by measuring correlations, or measuring returns to flash a warning when they start growing at “super-exponential” rates.
No one can predict that the market is going to crash or not but the current situation of the market with higher interest rates; higher government debt and clear indication from Fed to further raise the interest rate in next 2, 3 years is indicative of a sizable drop in between 15% to 20%. It is important to understand how to keep your investments safe if market corrects itself or a bigger crash happens. Investors who are looking for higher returns on their investments without considering security and insurance will be in a dangerous situation.