After a one-day recovery on October 30, where the Dow regained an additional 28.40 points, or 12 percent, to close at 258.47, the market continued to fall, arriving at an interim bottom on November 13, 1929, with the Dow closing at 198.60. The market then recovered for several months, starting on November 14, with the Dow gaining 18.59 points to close at 217.28, and reaching a secondary closing peak (i.e., bear market rally) of 294.07 on April 17, 1930. The following year, the Dow embarked on another, much longer, steady slide from April 1931 to July 8, 1932, when it closed at 41.22—its lowest level of the 20th century, concluding an 89 percent loss rate for all of the market's stocks.
Though we don't know what will motivate a future market crash, it's likely to be something that will ultimately be recovered from if history is any guide. The economy and society are very flexible. Industries, and even countries, can rise and fall over time, but if you have a global, well-diversified and lower cost portfolio, then you should be well-positioned. This is an area where diversification helps. If you spread your bets it will likely help. You'll probably find that the next crisis centers on a specific country, part of the globe or investment theme. If you've spread your bets through diversification, then you'll undoubtedly have some assets that fall in value, perhaps alarmingly, but often certain assets can do well during certain crises such as high-quality bonds, more defensive or inexpensive parts of the stock market, or commodities including gold.
“ Business ventures with multiple shareholders became popular with commenda contracts in medieval Italy (Greif 2006, 286), and Malmendier (2009) provides evidence that shareholder companies date back to ancient Rome. Yet the title of the world's first stock market deservedly goes to that of seventeenth-century Amsterdam, where an active secondary market in company shares emerged. The two major companies were the Dutch East India Company and the Dutch West India Company, founded in 1602 and 1621. Other companies existed, but they were not as large and constituted a small portion of the stock market. ”
After all, he said, it took only 3 years for such a portfolio to recover all of its losses after the roughly 50 percent stock market decline of the last crash. But withstanding losses like those without selling any holdings took extreme fortitude. That’s why it was easier to live with a broadly diversified portfolio, with 50 percent stocks and 50 percent bonds. Such a portfolio recovered all of its losses in just one year, not three, according to data provided by Mr. Kinniry.
There is ongoing debate among economists and historians as to what role the crash played in subsequent economic, social, and political events. The Economist argued in a 1998 article that the Depression did not start with the stock market crash, nor was it clear at the time of the crash that a depression was starting. They asked, "Can a very serious Stock Exchange collapse produce a serious setback to industry when industrial production is for the most part in a healthy and balanced condition?" They argued that there must be some setback, but there was not yet sufficient evidence to prove that it would be long or would necessarily produce a general industrial depression.
I recently wrote a Guest Blog Entry for the "Money and Such" blog entitled Passive Investing Is a Strategy for Extremists. Juicy Excerpt: The word “passive” sounds neutral. It sounds moderate. I don’t think the investing philosophy is that at all. The investing philosophy argues for taking no action whatsoever when the risk of holding stocks increases dramatically. This is the blog entry that was viewed by the owner of the "Lazy Man and Money" blog as "too hot to…
The mathematical description of stock market movements has been a subject of intense interest. The conventional assumption has been that stock markets behave according to a random log-normal distribution. Among others, mathematician Benoît Mandelbrot suggested as early as 1963 that the statistics prove this assumption incorrect. Mandelbrot observed that large movements in prices (i.e. crashes) are much more common than would be predicted from a log-normal distribution. Mandelbrot and others suggested that the nature of market moves is generally much better explained using non-linear analysis and concepts of chaos theory. This has been expressed in non-mathematical terms by George Soros in his discussions of what he calls reflexivity of markets and their non-linear movement. George Soros said in late October 1987, 'Mr. Robert Prechter's reversal proved to be the crack that started the avalanche'.
Nous avons à peu près le même cheminement. Moi aussi, j’ai vécu la crise de 2008 alors que j’étais 100% investi en bourse. J’ai fait des essais et des erreurs. Seulement, vous avez pris l’approche active et j’ai pris l’approche passive (lire paresseuse). Je ne suis pas assez passionné par le sujet pour faire des suivis tous les jours. Certes, bravo pour vos résultats!
September 23, 2008 Denise Siegel1929 Stock Market Crash, 1929 Stock Market Crash and now, 1929 stock market crash comparison to now, astrologer, astrology prediction, astrology prediction about future stock market crash, Astrology/Psychic, bail out, best psychic, best psychic in los angeles, chart, comparison astrology chart of the dow jones 1929 stock market crash and now, december astrology prediction, december psychic prediction, Future Stock Market Crash prediction, psychic, psychic prediction, psychic prediction about future stock market crash, stock market, tax payers, the dow, The Dow Jones, the economy, the great depression and now, wall street6 Comments
“The shift from active to passive asset management, and specifically the decline of active value investors, reduces the ability of the market to prevent and recover from large drawdowns,” Joyce Chang and Jan Loeys wrote in the Monday note. Actively managed accounts make up only about one-third of equity assets under management, with active single-name trading responsible for just 10 per cent or so of trading volume, JPMorgan estimates.
As such, conventional logic in economics is that you can expect a stock market crash and/or recession every seven to ten years, give or take (economics is as much of an art as it is a science). The actual timing of the crash, beyond those general guidelines, is next to impossible. If it was even remotely conceivable, I would be on the Forbes 400 list by now!
Feb. 15 2012. 6.0 quake off the coast of Oregon, in the U.S.. This is a major concern, because a giant magnitude 8 quake (see this page) could occur underwater off the coast of the Pacific Northwest U.S., causing a giant tidal wave that could go miles inland in the U.S. - Oregon, Washington state, and Northern California, and also hit Japan. This 6.0 quake off Oregon could indicate a larger 8 or 9 quake could occur soon there, underwater off the coast on the Cascadia undersea fault line.
Stuff to think about before you make your attempt at fame in the world of market callers? There is some deflationary stuff going on. Not Armageddon mind you, but, a barrel of Texas that was flying out the door in 2012 for $125 can be had for $46 today. Food is on the cheap so bad the supermarkets are begging for some price inflation so they can report revenue increases to their grumpy shareholders. I almost forgot, Maine blueberries are getting crushed with wholesale off by over 40%. Not enough buy pressure there.
Any backlash won’t come until after NASDANQ is live. The team has been working on the project since August, but Vaisman admits “it’s taking some time.” He says once the NASDANQ website launches (at a to-be-determined date, with a mobile app coming later), the algorithm will probably have to be tweaked several times before it feels accurate. Wink says the ultimate goal is to find “the equation for one meme across every website and every platform.”
No one can predict that the market is going to crash or not but the current situation of the market with higher interest rates; higher government debt and clear indication from Fed to further raise the interest rate in next 2, 3 years is indicative of a sizable drop in between 15% to 20%. It is important to understand how to keep your investments safe if market corrects itself or a bigger crash happens. Investors who are looking for higher returns on their investments without considering security and insurance will be in a dangerous situation.