I've posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance blog titled Predicting Stock Returns for Fun and Profit. Juicy Excerpt: My guess is that most people don’t bother trying to make long-term predictions because they assume it would take a lot of work to pull them off. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Every factor that affects the price of a broad stock index is reflected in the price of that index. So you don’t need to worry about inflation or productivity…

I've posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance blog titled Predicting Stock Returns for Fun and Profit. Juicy Excerpt: My guess is that most people don’t bother trying to make long-term predictions because they assume it would take a lot of work to pull them off. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Every factor that affects the price of a broad stock index is reflected in the price of that index. So you don’t need to worry about inflation or productivity…


The sandpile study was introduced in a 1987 paper by Per Bak, Chao Tang and Kurt Wiesenfeld, three scientists working at the Physics Department at the Brookhaven National Laboratory. Ironically, the paper was presented to Physical Review Letters a few months before the stock market crash of October 1987, still today the largest ever one-day drop. The title was "Self-Organized Criticality" and falls within a branch of mathematics known as Complexity Theory, which studies how systems can organize themselves into unexpected behaviors arising from the interaction of its smallest and seemingly independent components.
I love reading these and often look again for any updates. The world seems to be lurching in to ever more chaos. I hope that things do improve with the war situation overall. We really do not want more war, what we need is peace, harmony and for all the third world countries to be stable and for those people to have the same opportunities as those in the western world. Then there will be peace.
However, none were right at the 74% threshold which makes market timing profitable. Remember, being right 66% of the time isn’t going to be as profitable as staying invested for three reasons. One, you will need to hold money in cash when you think a crash is coming. Two, when you are sometimes wrong (the 33%+ of the time) you are missing out on good gains from those days when markets soar. Three, you will be accumulating costs, including trading costs and tax from selling.

It’s not clear how much money Weingarten has made for his clients. At its peak, he says, the Astrologers Fund managed “under $25 million” for “under 10” clients. Some years, he says, the fund returned 100 percent; some years, “less.” A few years ago he stopped accepting new investors and began managing his own money exclusively. On a page labeled Disclaimer on his outmoded, space-themed website (“done in 2000 by a friend of mine who did porn websites”), he lists payments over the years from consulting clients, including natural resources companies, penny stocks, and—inevitably—a cryptocurrency startup.


According to data from Equifax in August 2017, deep subprime auto loans -- i.e., loans with an origination VantageScore of 530 or less, on a scale of 300 to 850 -- have hit delinquency rates that hadn’t been seen since 2007. Interestingly enough, when examining the auto market as a whole, no red flags arise in terms of delinquency rates. But if you focus solely on subprime and deep subprime loans, they’ve been deteriorating of late. 
In July 2001, Tesco became involved in internet groceries retailing in the USA when it obtained a 35% stake in GroceryWorks.[30] In 2002, Tesco purchased 13 HIT hypermarkets in Poland. It also made a major move into the UK's convenience shop market with its purchase of T & S Stores, owner of 870 convenience shops in the One Stop, Dillons and Day & Nite chains in the UK.[31]
Set forth below are links to eight Guest Blog Entries that I wrote on the Valuation-Informed Indexing strategy: 1) The Good Side of Stocks' Lost Decade, at the Consumerism Commentary blog; 2) Six Dangerous Investing Myths, at the Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance blog; 3) How To Use Valuation-Informed Indexing: Part One, at the Balance Junkie blog; 4) How To Use Valuation-Informed Indexing:Part Two, at the Balance Junkie blog; 5) Retirement Planning As If Valuations Mattered, at…
Perhaps the likeliest reason for the next stock market crash could be an escalating trade spat between the United States and China. After the U.S. initially placed tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods, China retaliated with tariffs of its own on an equal value of imported U.S. goods. Now the two sides are threatening to one-up the other with tariffs.

GOLD broke above it's downtrend channel line for the first time on February 3 and moved sharply higher immediately. It has very recently formed a FLAG pattern which is usually a Continuation signification. A pattern "count" would take the GOLD Price target to $1440! Apparently, the vote for Britain to potentially leave the EU is coming up and polls say it is a close call. That is roiling world markets yesterday and today and is one of several uncertainties presuring GOLD higher.
Markets started off looking firm this morning but by mid afternoon the Heng Seng Index broke below the key psychological 30,000 level as trade war concerns once again reared its ugly head. First came the Trump administration announcing a further $50b worth of tariffs on China imports followed by return fire from China threatening reciprocal tariffs on 106 U.S. product.
I have good reasons why i prep. I just dont have any confidence in govenment and am no convinved that covernment and city officials, etites etc are busy sitting around worry thier entitles asses off worry about me not eating or having a hard time. Or i am being too paranoid. Agency ass clowns think that you all are so dumb to relax and so that they can steer thinking by convine shtf-effers that i have bad grammar and can’t spell.

The 1929 crash brought the Roaring Twenties to a halt.[35] As tentatively expressed by economic historian Charles P. Kindleberger, in 1929, there was no lender of last resort effectively present, which, if it had existed and been properly exercised, would have been key in shortening the business slowdown that normally follows financial crises.[32] The crash marked the beginning of widespread and long-lasting consequences for the United States. Historians still debate the question: did the 1929 Crash spark The Great Depression,[36] or did it merely coincide with the bursting of a loose credit-inspired economic bubble? Only 16% of American households were invested in the stock market within the United States during the period leading up to the depression, suggesting that the crash carried somewhat less of a weight in causing the depression.
The Investor’s Scenario SurferI have run this calculator hundreds of time. it is in my assessment the most powerful tool for learning how stock investing works available today. You have the option of choosing a new stock allocation in each year of a realistic 30-year sequence of returns. You can compare your results with what you would have achieved with a Buy-and-Hold strategy. You will find that Valuation-Informed Indexing strategies yield larger portfolios in 90 percent of your tests of the concept. What matters is what happens in the long term! This tool tells you what strategies give the best results in the long term.
America, Isis, and Memes: AP Photo/Alex Brandon FOX NEWS "Thanks to the President's leadership, we are rebuilding the military, ISIS is on the run, and we've seen more than 1 million jobs created while the stock market hits all-time highs." VP Mike Pence "The American people know that I could not be more honored to be working side by side with a president who is making America great again." —VIce President MikePence
One mitigation strategy has been the introduction of trading curbs, also known as "circuit breakers", which are a trading halt in the cash market and the corresponding trading halt in the derivative markets triggered by the halt in the cash market, all of which are affected based on substantial movements in a broad market indicator. Since their inception, circuit breakers have been modified to prevent both speculative gains and dramatic losses within a small time frame.[43]
Dear Reader : There is no magic formula to getting rich. Success in investment vehicles with the best prospects for price appreciation can only be achieved through proper and rigorous research and analysis. We are 100% independent in that we are not affiliated with any bank or brokerage house. Information contained herein, while believed to be correct, is not guaranteed as accurate. Warning: Investing often involves high risks and you can lose a lot of money. Please do not invest with money you cannot afford to lose. The opinions in this content are just that, opinions of the authors. We are a publishing company and the opinions, comments, stories, reports, advertisements and articles we publish are for informational and educational purposes only; nothing herein should be considered personalized investment advice. Before you make any investment, check with your investment professional (advisor). We urge our readers to review the financial statements and prospectus of any company they are interested in. We are not responsible for any damages or losses arising from the use of any information herein. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
According to much national or state legislation, a large array of fiscal obligations are taxed for capital gains. Taxes are charged by the state over the transactions, dividends and capital gains on the stock market, in particular in the stock exchanges. These fiscal obligations vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction. Some countries[which?] avoid taxing profits on stocks as the profits are already taxed when companies file returns, but double taxation is common at some level in many countries.
According to much national or state legislation, a large array of fiscal obligations are taxed for capital gains. Taxes are charged by the state over the transactions, dividends and capital gains on the stock market, in particular in the stock exchanges. These fiscal obligations vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction. Some countries[which?] avoid taxing profits on stocks as the profits are already taxed when companies file returns, but double taxation is common at some level in many countries.
In terms of big financial decisions—such as when to submit a book I’m trying to sell and when to make investments—he said I should take action only on two particular days of the week. Heavenly bodies in astrology are assigned an affinity for certain days, and according to my birth chart, I have a strong Moon arrangement (which rules Monday) and a powerful Jupiter connection (which controls Thursday, the day on which I was born).
I recently wrote a Guest Blog Entry for the My Journey to Millions blog. It's called The More You Know About Investing, the Less You Know About Investing. Juicy Excerpt: The experts can learn new things faster than I can. They have all sorts of tools available to them to keep up with developments in the field. They’re driving 90 miles per hour while I’m poking along at 25. Still, I possess an edge. I’m driving at a far slower speed but in the right direction. It makes a…
ALSO: HAS ANYONE OUT THERE NOTICED THAT THERE HAVE BEEN A LOT OF VOLCANOES AND EARTHQUAKES THIS YEAR? WATCH OUT FOR INCREASING EARTHQUAKES AND VOLCANOES AROUND THE WORLD IN 2018 - 2019! AND WATCH OUT FOR EVENTS IN THE WORLD, SEE THE CALENDAR PAGE ON IT! AND IN 2018 - 2019 THERE COULD BE MORE AND LARGER QUAKES, VOLCANOES, POSSIBLE WAR, NEW EPIDEMIC! THE FOUR HORSEMEN OF THE APOCALYPSE RIDING IN 2018-2019!
Likewise, stock prices have defeated all forecasting efforts, and may well belong to the same set of basic unpredictability. While occasionally somebody may seem to be on the right side of an investment ahead of a big move, this is a far cry from actually forecasting such move with any kind of precision in terms of timing and size. For each “hunch” that is successful, a myriad others fail. Despite anecdotes, there seems to be no clear evidence that investors who get a big move “right” are anything but lucky.
Welcome to the May 2, 2011, edition of the Carnival of Passive Investing (#5), a monthly collection of the best and most intelligent Passive Investing strategy articles around the internet. Some people foolishly want to beat the market (want being the key word) but we just want to invest with it. We have some exciting news to report about next month's carnival. Rick Ferri, the author of numerous books on Passive Investing, will be selecting the winners of the May Carnival of Passive…
Experienced investors who are “sophisticated enough to focus on these numbers and act on them themselves” can benefit by making their own adjustments, Mr. Davis said. Tried-and true investments like balanced funds and target date funds (which become more conservative as a given date nears) can make basic adjustments for you. Advisers can do this as well.
June 6, 2006. 6-6-06, 666 being the number of the Antichrist. Note that this was 40 years after 6-6-66 (June 6, 1966), 40 years being associated in the Bible with a period of testing. Note that AIDS was first announced on June 5, 1981, when it was first detected in five men in Los Angeles. So June 5 2006 was the 25th anniversary of AIDS, 1 day before 6-6-06. Could it be that AIDS is one form of the Fourth Horseman of the Apocalypse, Death? And Putin the Antichrist hosted the G-8 summit of world industrial powers in Russia in July 2006.
In this web site I have tried to show how astrology, new age methods, religion, bible prophecy, the King James Bible Code, and mythology can be used in a combined way, to explain the world today and to predict the future. I try to find a middle way, between Christianity and New Age, because I think that is where the truth is. A middle way, as in Buddhism where a middle way between extremes is emphasized. And as in Hinduism, I have looked to Astrology and the stars for guidance. And the idea of a unifying religion is advocated here, as the Baha'i faith has a goal of unifying mankind; Baha'i is one of the most enlightened of world religions; begun in Iran, its world headquarters is in Haifa, Israel. And as in the Kabbalah, the spiritual and New Age branch of Judaism, I have searched for the hidden meanings in the symbolism of the Bible, and its numerical patterns.

Memes, Recess, and Stock Market: A Short History Lesson 1928 Republicans take control of the Presidency, the House and the Senate. Followed shortly by the Great Depression, massive unemployment and a Stock Market crash. 2000 Republicans take control of the Presidency, the House and the Senate. Followed shortly by two recessions including the Great Recession, massive unemployment and a Stock Market crash. 2016 Republicans take control of the Presidency, the House and the Senate. Anyone want to guess what happens next? Real Truth Vow This will NOT end well.


L'attention s'est ensuite portée sur la vente de contrats futures sur l'indice Standard & Poor's 500 de type futures E-mini S&P 500 et sur un moment précis de deux minutes où un paquet de ces contrats portant sur une valeur de 16 milliards de dollars avaient été vendus. La vente totale de futures E-mini S&P 500 sur la journée du 6 mai 2010 s'élevait à 9 milliards pour la banque Citigroup, suggérant que l'origine de cet incident n'impliquait pas cette banque ; le « Chicago Mercantile Exchange » qui gère la cotation des contrats futures E-mini S&P 500 ne trouva aucune faille dans ses systèmes.
Most people invest their hard-earned money in the stock market through mutual funds or ETFs. Often this is through a company-sponsored plan such as a 401(k). Watching the daily swings in the value of your holdings can seem quite mysterious. If you own a stock and research what the business does, you will start to understand the relationship between business performance and the value of your stock holding. In the short-term, a variety of crazy factors can push the price of your company’s stock around. But in the long-term, the price of your company (and stock) will be determined by its business performance. And it’s the long term-that matters. As you get to understand how this works for one company, you will begin to get a feel for how the markets behave, although I don’t know that anyone truly understands the gyrations of the stock markets.
On 1 September 2014, Dave Lewis, previously of Unilever, took over as CEO.[45] In January 2015, Lewis announced plans to close the company's head office in Cheshunt and 43 loss-making shops in the near future, and the cancellation of 49 new large supermarket developments.[46] The shop closures were expected to make 2,000 staff redundant, while a further £250 million of cost-cutting measures were planned.[47]
In 2007, Warren Buffett bet hedge fund manager Ted Seides $1 million for charity that a fund indexed to the S&P 500 would beat five of Seides’s favorite hedge funds over 10 years. The S&P returned 7.1 percent annually; the five funds returned 2.2 percent. Buffett didn’t just win the bet, he won an argument about investing. Professional money managers look for patterns in the markets or divine signs on a balance sheet. Sometimes their systems work well for a while. But time, or Cronus, grinds most of them down, and few beat the S&P in the long run.
Many astrologers like to characterize their method of reading a horoscope as "holistic", in an effort to escape criticisms from mechanistically-oriented skeptics. I prefer to think of chart analysis in terms of Boolean logic, where multiple factors must be present for a particular situation to occur. For example, we cannot expect stocks to inevitably rise when benefic Jupiter conjoins the natal Sun of the chart we are working with. Such a favourable pattern may be thought of as a necessary, but not sufficient condition for price increases. There must also be an absence of negative factors hitting the key chart points. These would include few close aspects from malefic planets, no planets transiting malefic houses (6th, 8th, 12th) and so on. Given the large number of variables every chart contains, there will be several significant operating planetary contacts and influences at any given time. These must all be evaluated for their relative effects of prices according to the principles of Boolean analysis. If we are trying to assess if the conditions are in place for a bull market, for example, we could construct a table that more clearly reflects this logical process.
No one can predict that the market is going to crash or not but the current situation of the market with higher interest rates; higher government debt and clear indication from Fed to further raise the interest rate in next 2, 3 years is indicative of a sizable drop in between 15% to 20%. It is important to understand how to keep your investments safe if market corrects itself or a bigger crash happens. Investors who are looking for higher returns on their investments without considering security and insurance will be in a dangerous situation.
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