Note from Glenn - There are many people in alternative media trying to scare people out of Bitcoin! Some of them are controlled opposition being paid to do this by the bankers but some have been brainwashed in my opinion. Those who stay out of bitcoin will be sorry since it can't be stopped by central banks! Email me at glenn@nsearch.com if you need training on bitcoin.
Experienced investors who are “sophisticated enough to focus on these numbers and act on them themselves” can benefit by making their own adjustments, Mr. Davis said. Tried-and true investments like balanced funds and target date funds (which become more conservative as a given date nears) can make basic adjustments for you. Advisers can do this as well.
The crucial point of their paper was that sandpile avalanches could not be predicted, and not because of randomness (there was no random component in their model) or because the authors could not figure out how to come up with equations to describe it. Rather, they found it impossible in a fundamental sense to set up equations that would describe the sandpile model analytically, so there was no way to predict what the sandpile would do. The only way to observe its behavior was to set up the model in a computer and let it run.
Planetary indications are indicating that the Bulls are getting tired and the Bears will spread their muscles by short selling. Profit booking by the buyers, short term traders and the retail investors will pull the Indices down. Mars will enter Capricorn sign and conjoin with Ketu on 2nd. Mars will aspect Sun in Aries. Although the Bears will try to create negative and dull sentiments yet the market will be led by the Bulls in the first week. Mercury, the planet of business & commerce, will enter in Aries sign and thus conjoin with Sun. It will be under the aspect of Mars & Jupiter. This planetary cocktail will keep the traders guessing and suddenly set Bearish tone. Sun will move to Taurus and Venus will move to Gemini on 14th. Venus will be under the aspect of Saturn & Jupiter. This will create a mixed reaction. Change in the trend will be visible from 27th, when Mercury will conjoin Sun in Taurus. Overall view for the May month is Bearish.
(10) Europe, Russia, and the Muslim world. Watch out for Russia, an increasingly negative influence could arise there. Not the type of democracy we see in the West. This relates to the Confederation of Independent States being originally a Confederation of 10 states, although I think it is more now. There is a red 10-horned beast in Revelation, that is a nasty creature. It is explained in Revelation that this is a Confederation of 10 states.
Vanguard tracks data to predict the likelihood of a recession at certain points in the future. In recent years, the company has put the probability of a recession six months out at close to 10 percent. Now, Vanguard says the chances of one by late 2020 are between 30 and 40 percent. That’s Vanguard’s highest-ever estimate for that time frame, Mr. Davis said. (A six-month forecast reported a greater than 40 percent probability before the recession that started in December 2007.)
By the way, our own Dr Doom, Professor Steve Keen, was also hailed as a good predictor of the GFC. Then at the University of Western Sydney, Keen received more than twice as many votes as his nearest rival and was judged the economist who first and most cogently warned the world of the coming Global Financial Collapse. He (and 2nd and 3rd place finishers, Nouriel Roubini (New York University) and Dean Baker (Centre for Economic and Policy Research), won the inaugural Revere Award for Economics, named in honour of Paul Revere and his famous ride through the night to warn Americans of the approaching British army.
Jump up ^ Goetzmann, William N.; Rouwenhorst, K. Geert (2008). The History of Financial Innovation, in Carbon Finance, Environmental Market Solutions to Climate Change. (Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, chapter 1, pp. 18–43). As Goetzmann & Rouwenhorst (2008) noted, "The 17th and 18th centuries in the Netherlands were a remarkable time for finance. Many of the financial products or instruments that we see today emerged during a relatively short period. In particular, merchants and bankers developed what we would today call securitization. Mutual funds and various other forms of structured finance that still exist today emerged in the 17th and 18th centuries in Holland."
I haven’t had any premonition/prediction but I did dream of a date, I’m not sure if it relates to me personally or on a collective scale (both even). I have never been given a date before but after the autumn/spring equinox last year in September a man told me to await his call on September 21st 2015. Now 6 months after, I still anticipate things are going to happen this September. I’ve read of a 7yr pattern of financial collapses that have happened ’01 then ’08 both in September, we’re going to have a solar eclipse 13th and the 4th lunar eclipse on 27th. There’s also going to be a UN general assembly in between the eclipses which the pope will be attending as well as American congress. Anyone else feeling things for September 2015?
I’m less concerned than our friends at the Fed. Businesses are rebelling in mass against Trump’s punitive tariffs on steel, aluminum, and lumber. Trump is still blind to his own economic idiocy as I write. Given the torrent of negative press on tariffs in recent weeks, I suspect that a member or two of his retinue will force him to see the light. They’ll force him sooner than later.

The magazines work months in advance so I made my predictions for 2014 around September and October. Soon after making this one there was a huge fire in Australia. So maybe I was seeing this – but I still feel that what I saw was really unprecedented. Similarly I note that bright light in the sky may be me ‘seeing’ Comet ISON but in my vision I saw something far far brighter in the sky. It would illuminate the whole sky – brighter than the moon.
And on May 4 2012, a Russian miltary leader made a threat that Russia may launch a nuclear missile attack on U.S. Antiballistic Missile ABM Systems being deployed as a missile defense in Europe. Notice that this was said as Putin is coming into office again as Russian President. This shows what a scary psycho Putin is, threatening nuclear war. So a Russian military strike on Europe is a possibility in the future (or a North Korea missile strike on the U.S.).
It’s difficult to quantify Vashistha’s—or any astrologer’s—success rate since they don’t necessarily get client feedback on how predictions pan out. But that hasn’t prevented skilled financial advisors and money managers from seeing the practice as a way to apply big-picture logic to unpredictable markets. Especially in a secular bull market that some argue is overbought, investors are eager to integrate any data that may help them protect their money by foretelling a correction, even if the information has celestial origins.
Nous avons à peu près le même cheminement. Moi aussi, j’ai vécu la crise de 2008 alors que j’étais 100% investi en bourse. J’ai fait des essais et des erreurs. Seulement, vous avez pris l’approche active et j’ai pris l’approche passive (lire paresseuse). Je ne suis pas assez passionné par le sujet pour faire des suivis tous les jours. Certes, bravo pour vos résultats!
I've posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Financial Uproar site entitled It's the End of the Investing World As We Know It (and I feel Fine). Juicy Excerpt: We are up against something very big here. When we discovered that it is not the sun that revolves around the earth but the earth that revolves around the sun we started a revolution in science. We tapped into many powerful insights in the years since as a result of that one, simple, fundamental change in our understanding of how the world…
In France, the main French stock index is called the CAC 40. Daily price limits are implemented in cash and derivative markets. Securities traded on the markets are divided into three categories according to the number and volume of daily transactions. Price limits for each security vary by category. For instance, for the more[most?] liquid category, when the price movement of a security from the previous day's closing price exceeds 10%, the quotation is suspended for 15 minutes, and transactions are then resumed. If the price then goes up or down by more than 5%, transactions are again suspended for 15 minutes. The 5% threshold may apply once more before transactions are halted for the rest of the day. When such a suspension occurs, transactions on options based on the underlying security are also suspended. Further, when more than 35% of the capitalization of the CAC40 Index cannot be quoted, the calculation of the CAC40 Index is suspended and the index is replaced by a trend indicator. When less than 25% of the capitalization of the CAC40 Index can be quoted, quotations on the derivative markets are suspended for half an hour or one hour, and additional margin deposits are requested.[43]
I've posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance blog titled Predicting Stock Returns for Fun and Profit. Juicy Excerpt: My guess is that most people don’t bother trying to make long-term predictions because they assume it would take a lot of work to pull them off. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Every factor that affects the price of a broad stock index is reflected in the price of that index. So you don’t need to worry about inflation or productivity…
(en) http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1686004 [archive] The Flash Crash: The Impact of High Frequency Trading on an Electronic Market (Le crack éclair ; Les impacts du marché haute fréquence sur un marché électronique ), par Andrei A. Kirilenko (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) Albert S. Kyle (University of Maryland; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)) Mehrdad Samadi (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) Tugkan Tuzun (University of Maryland – Robert H. Smith School of Business), 2010-10-01

I've posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Everyday Tips and Thoughts blog. It's called Stocks Are Not Risky for Those Willing to Tune Out the Wall Street Mumbo Jumbo. Juicy Excerpt: The people who are cited in the media as investment “experts” are almost all employed by Wall Street. Wall Street makes lots of money when you invest in stocks and hardly anything when you invest in other asset classes. So 90 percent of the “experts” are compromised. They are not experts in how to invest…
The crash on October 19, 1987, a date that is also known as Black Monday, was the climactic culmination of a market decline that had begun five days before on October 14. The DJIA fell 3.81 percent on October 14, followed by another 4.60 percent drop on Friday, October 16. On Black Monday, the Dow Jones Industrials Average plummeted 508 points, losing 22.6% of its value in one day. The S&P 500 dropped 20.4%, falling from 282.7 to 225.06. The NASDAQ Composite lost only 11.3%, not because of restraint on the part of sellers, but because the NASDAQ market system failed. Deluged with sell orders, many stocks on the NYSE faced trading halts and delays. Of the 2,257 NYSE-listed stocks, there were 195 trading delays and halts during the day.[27] The NASDAQ market fared much worse. Because of its reliance on a "market making" system that allowed market makers to withdraw from trading, liquidity in NASDAQ stocks dried up. Trading in many stocks encountered a pathological condition where the bid price for a stock exceeded the ask price. These "locked" conditions severely curtailed trading. On October 19, trading in Microsoft shares on the NASDAQ lasted a total of 54 minutes.
So are we at the fiat of fate and going to be helplessly at the mercy of these events? We can change our personal fate and the fate of the world by harnessing the power of consciousness that I spoke about at the start of this piece. Thoughts are things and can influence future events. If they are powerful enough and fueled by compassion then they will protect you personally but also influence the course of history.
It’s been my intuition for a number of years now that there is a lot of criminal activity taking place in the stock market and I feel the uncovering of this is part of Pluto going over the first house of the Dow. I mentioned this in earlier posts. I feel we are entering into this phase of Pluto now where a lot of dirty tricks, insider trading, corruption and scams are exposed. Pluto is going to clean house, and while this is good in the long run, it will disrupt people’s faith in the market, and bring down value substantially. 
If you believe in Taratam Vani [TV in brief] that manifested in India during 1657-94 AD – which can be termed as ‘Seventeenth Century Revelations’ – I feel after considerable thought that the Avatara of Kalki had manifested in the year 1618 AD in a personage called Shri Devachandraji [1581-1657 AD]. He is esoterically referred to in 2nd chapter of 12th Skandha of Bhagawatam as the horse called “Devadutta”. That happened after a 14 year long fascination and devotion/contemplation of the text of Bhagawatam. He one day accomplished his highest humanly attainable state of consciousness [that must have been, in my humble opinion, a state called ‘Turyateeta’ in the text of ‘Yogavasishtha’ when one has an audience with Paramatma].

I've posted a Guest Blog Entry at the www.MyRetirementBlog.com site. It's entitled What If Everything You Thought You Knew About Retirement Planning Turned Out To Be Wrong? Juicy Excerpt: I never went to investing school. I never managed a big fund. It shouldn’t be possible for me to be the first person to develop a retirement calculator that gets the numbers right. I mean, come on! But the numbers generated by my retirement calculator are very different from the numbers generated by all…
There is no numerically specific definition of a stock market crash but the term commonly applies to steep double-digit percentage losses in a stock market index over a period of several days. Crashes are often distinguished from bear markets by panic selling and abrupt, dramatic price declines. Bear markets are periods of declining stock market prices that are measured in months or years. Crashes are often associated with bear markets, however, they do not necessarily go hand in hand. The crash of 1987, for example, did not lead to a bear market. Likewise, the Japanese bear market of the 1990s occurred over several years without any notable crashes.

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On stock markets, a company’s value is usually determined by how much money it makes, or is predicted to make. Meme value of course is determined by popularity, but what level makes a meme good? 4chan users generally consider a meme to be dead as soon as “normies” start using it, so does it gain or lose value when it hits the mainstream? Is a meme less valuable just because it lives out its lifespan only on one platform? Vaisman and Wink don’t think so, yet on a stock market, growth usually increases value. Vaisman admitted that the problem was working out how “if we [created] a system where when we have X amount of this meme and Y amount of this meme, how do we make sure they’re properly represented in terms of popularity?”
In the 1920’s, banks were opening up at the rate of 4 to 5 per day.  There were few federal restrictions to determine start up capital needed to start up a new bank or how much of its reserve it could lend.  As a result, most of these banks were highly insolvent.  Banks were closing at the rate of 2 a day between 1923 and 1929.  Then as banks moved to invest heavily in the stock market, this proved to be a disaster when the market crashed.  By 1932, 40% of all banks were wiped out.

Juicy Excerpt: If prices can be wildly wrong in the short term but must be roughly right in the long term, it should be possible to know in advance which way prices are headed (in the long term only, not in the short term) just by knowing the valuation level you are starting from. Researchers have checked the historical data. This explanation, unlike the EMT-based one, stands up to scrutiny.

First, take a look at where you now stand, by which I mean make sure you really know how your money is currently invested. The single most important thing you want to confirm is your asset allocation, or the percentage of your holdings that are invested in stocks vs. bonds. That will determine how your portfolio holds up if the market takes a major dive.

We are teaching various Share Trading Courses from 2006. We also provide after course support. We teach very simple and effective techniques of share trading.We have brought many people in the stock market.Some of them are earning bread & butter from stock market.We are proud to say that no one of our student is failed in the stock market as we teach loss covering techniques also. Our course fee is very cheap as compared to others but quality is high as compared to others. So please join us and Start Trading in Share Market.
David Crowder has grown his ministry and music as one mission, writing songs for the church he co-founded while at Baylor University. Crowder's unique expressions of worship and daring instrumentation have cemented his legacy as one of this generation's eminent auteurs. Since the band's breakup in 2012, he's continued a fruitful solo career, with back to back #1 albums on Christian charts. His third solo album I Know A Ghost offers heart-swelling anthems of worship, mixed into a spicy stew of musical styles.

It is truly perplexing that an instance of such a great importance as what happened with Shri Devachandraji remained hidden unnoticed from Indian society of even the central and northern parts of India for over three centuries. Those divine verses spread over in 14 books of TV were gradually published starting from decade of 1980’s by present day disciples of one who is known by his title as Mahamati Prananath. These contain highest spiritual truths that in my opinion were not revealed by God via scriptures of all ancient faiths – but collate well with them.


His reasoning: Stockman expects "an epic monetary and fiscal (policy) collision," he told CNBC. On the one hand, the recent tax cuts enacted by Congress are likely to help push the federal budget deficit to nearly $1 trillion next year. At the exact same time, the Federal Reserve is starting to unwind its sizable bond portfolio— which it amassed in the aftermath of the financial crisis to keep bond yields low to juice economy activity.

“Investors” on the subreddit are granted 1000 units of NASDANQ (the name of the market they’ve created) currency when they first join, with an aim to make as much profit as possible. The meme market operates just like any other stock market – new memes that are on the rise are desirable, while when a meme is decaying, those participating in the market try and sell it off as quickly as they can.


It’s not going to create 4% [GDP] growth. Business might feel good for a couple of quarters, but there isn’t anything to build on. You can give companies a trillion dollars, but what are they going to do with it? Just buy back stock and pay dividends to their shareholders. They don’t need to expand. We’ve got excess supply here and around the world. We don’t need businesses to invest in a lot of new capacity. We already did that in the boom.


Stock market crashes are usually caused by more than one factor. In fact, there are often two sets of reasons for a crash. One set of conditions creates the environment for the sell-off, and another set of factors triggers the beginning of the sell-off. Just because there is a market bubble, it doesn’t mean the market will crash. Usually something needs to occur to cause investors to begin selling and buyers to step away from the stock market.

Le 6 mai 2010, en début d'après-midi, le Dow Jones a commencé à décliner pendant que la crise de la dette publique grecque s'intensifiait et alors que la plupart des grands indices financiers aussi bien sur le marché des futures9 que sur les marchés des actions avait déjà subi une baisse d'environ 4 %. À 14 h 27, la baisse s'accentua. À 14 h 45, elle devint vertigineuse avec des ticks (en) à trois chiffres. En trois minutes, le Dow Jones perdit 433 points. Mais à 14 h 57, le Dow Jones avait repris 619,42 points. Les prix de nombreuses actions avaient connu une importante baisse, suivie d'une remontée en quelques minutes. Soudainement, une nouvelle baisse de 5,6 % intervint avant de s'annuler tout aussi rapidement. Environ 8 000 titres de sociétés et ETF échangés alors ont enregistré des mouvements de cours similaires, perdant de 5 % à 15 % avant de les regagner en totalité ou presque. Des actions ont subi des mouvements de prix encore plus sévères. Environ 20 000 échanges boursiers concernant 300 sociétés ont été exécutés à des prix supérieurs ou inférieurs à 60 % de leurs valeurs quelques instants auparavant. À la fin de la journée, la plupart des indices actions avaient perdu 3 % par rapport au cours de clôture de la veille. Le Dow Jones, qui avait ouvert la séance à 10 862,22 points, a atteint un plus bas de 9 787,17 points avant de clôturer à 10 520,32 points.
In the United Kingdom Tesco offers financial services through Tesco Bank, formerly a 50:50 joint venture with The Royal Bank of Scotland. Products on offer include credit cards, loans, mortgages, savings accounts and several types of insurance, including car, home, life and travel. They are promoted by leaflets in Tesco's shops and through its website. The business made a profit of £130 million for the 52 weeks to 24 February 2007, of which Tesco's share was £66 million. This move towards the financial sector diversified the Tesco brand and provides opportunities for growth outside of the retailing sector. On 28 July 2008, Tesco announced that they would buy out the Royal Bank of Scotland's 50% stake in the company for £950 million.[77]
The crash on October 19, 1987, a date that is also known as Black Monday, was the climactic culmination of a market decline that had begun five days before on October 14. The DJIA fell 3.81 percent on October 14, followed by another 4.60 percent drop on Friday, October 16. On Black Monday, the Dow Jones Industrials Average plummeted 508 points, losing 22.6% of its value in one day. The S&P 500 dropped 20.4%, falling from 282.7 to 225.06. The NASDAQ Composite lost only 11.3%, not because of restraint on the part of sellers, but because the NASDAQ market system failed. Deluged with sell orders, many stocks on the NYSE faced trading halts and delays. Of the 2,257 NYSE-listed stocks, there were 195 trading delays and halts during the day.[27] The NASDAQ market fared much worse. Because of its reliance on a "market making" system that allowed market makers to withdraw from trading, liquidity in NASDAQ stocks dried up. Trading in many stocks encountered a pathological condition where the bid price for a stock exceeded the ask price. These "locked" conditions severely curtailed trading. On October 19, trading in Microsoft shares on the NASDAQ lasted a total of 54 minutes.
The equity market actually peaked in late 2007, and appeared to be undergoing a correction in early 2008. However, after a brief recovery in April 2008 failed to reach the all-time highs, the market fell for the following 11 months. By March 2009 the S&P 500 index had fallen more than 55%. Unprecedented action by the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy and market led to the beginning of the bull market that has continued until today.

Doubters and haters are only hurting themselves, Morris said: “My clients are pragmatic—if it works, they use it.” But financial astrology is hardly foolproof. In one prominent prediction flop, London-based financial astrologer Christeen Skinner surmised that Hillary Clinton would definitely win the 2016 U.S. election, but would be too bogged down by influenza to attend her own inauguration.
I’m less concerned than our friends at the Fed. Businesses are rebelling in mass against Trump’s punitive tariffs on steel, aluminum, and lumber. Trump is still blind to his own economic idiocy as I write. Given the torrent of negative press on tariffs in recent weeks, I suspect that a member or two of his retinue will force him to see the light. They’ll force him sooner than later.

Since Saturn will be entering Aquarius later in 2020, I predict that the shift towards the mass adoption of cryptocurrencies will be inevitable, in whatever form it will be by then… After all, Aquarius is the reformer of the zodiac and once Saturn in Capricorn tears up the poorly operating structures, removing illegal operations, scammy cryptocurrencies, ICOs and even IPOs (in traditional markets), it will want to adopt a new world order. We will not see the ultimate results of that until well into mid-2020’s (so mark my words 😉) because we will also be dealing with some environmental issues (but I won’t discuss that now), but for now, sit tight and don’t even think about fooling the system anymore. Trust me, Saturn in Capricorn won’t allow you to…


Now is the time to make sure you have a portfolio that you could live with through a crash. A typical crash will feel very different if you are 100% invested in stocks, than if you have some of your portfolio invested in bonds and other assets. The time to work out the right allocation for you is now, if you determine that you should not be completely in stocks but would rather have a 60%/40% stock/bond allocation, then it's critically important to determine that before a crash occurs. If you don't, you'll experience the worst of both worlds. You'll likely see the greatest losses during the crash, but also fail to benefit fully from any recovery. If you prepare ahead of time, you'll be better able to ride out any market events.
Research at the New England Complex Systems Institute has found warning signs of crashes using new statistical analysis tools of complexity theory. This work suggests that the panics that lead to crashes come from increased mimicry in the market. A dramatic increase in market mimicry occurred during the whole year before each market crash of the past 25 years, including the recent financial crisis. When investors closely follow each other's cues, it is easier for panic to take hold and affect the market. This work is a mathematical demonstration of a significant advance warning sign of impending market crashes.[19][20]
I have posted a Guest Blog Entry at the My Personal Finance Journey blog. It is called Investors Who Ignore Valuations Are Like Overeaters Who Ignore the Risk of Heart Disease. Juicy Excerpt: Raddr examines the numbers and concludes that: “The poor retiree’s real net worth has dropped nearly two-thirds (from $1,000 to $367) in only 11 years, and he is now withdrawing about 11 percent of his portfolio per year, which is a recipe for disaster even if the market heads up big-time from…

Regardless of the outcome of who starts what, Russia verses USA or visa versa their will be no nuclear war as nuclear weapons don’t work. A load of hype same as moon landing as no flesh can pass thru the Van Allen radiation belts and survive. More hype the earth turns at 1600 KPH but if you travel by plane East to West and return takes the same time for the same distance.

The next day, "Black Tuesday", October 29, 1929, about 16 million shares traded as the panic selling reached its peak. Some stocks actually had no buyers at any price that day ("air pockets"[citation needed]). The Dow lost an additional 30 points, or 12 percent.[11][12][13][14] The volume of stocks traded on October 29, 1929, was a record that was not broken for nearly 40 years.[12]

Finally, as you think about your allocation there are a few things to consider. Generally, lower risk bonds hold up better during stressed markets. U.S. Treasury bonds have historically risen in value during extreme market stress. It's not guaranteed but may be helpful to portfolios if history is any guide. Also, depending on the nature of the crisis diversifying assets such as commodities, including gold, or real estate can be helpful. Again, these won't work every time, for example in 2008-9 real estate was the epicenter of the crisis but spreading your bets can help. Finally, within stocks diversification is useful. We've seen high valuations in U.S. blue chips in the 1970s, U.S. tech in the 1990s and Japanese investments in the 1980s, each was met with nasty price declines on the other side. Rather than trying to predict these events, it can be best to spread your bets across sectors, geographies and other categories, so that if the next crash does focus on one specific area, then you won't be wiped out.


This does not mean that successful investing is impossible; only that the more we learn about market behavior, the more it seems that trying to deal with uncertainty is more important than pretending that we can have any certainty. More precisely, managing risk seems to be a better approach to investing than concocting forecasts on asset returns. This could mean, for example, finding ways of identifying when market participants start to align on one side of a trade by measuring correlations, or measuring returns to flash a warning when they start growing at “super-exponential” rates.
I recently wrote a guest blog entry for the My Life ROI blog entitled I Learned How to Invest by Learning How to Save. Juicy Excerpt:  If you have ever tried to save effectively, you know that price matters. Big time. It’s common knowledge that that’s so with everything other than stocks. By learning how to save, and by then not forgetting the lesson just because the experts were telling me that different rules apply with stocks, I learned how to invest. Some wild comments posted…
Note that Russian President Putin began his rise to power in Russia in August 1999, at the time of the Grand Cross Astrology pattern and solar eclipse over Europe, becoming Prime Minister for Yeltsin (second-in-command in Russia) on August 9, 1999. On December 31, 1999, Putin became Russia's President. And Mars is war - war will occur when Putin is in power. "King of the Mongols" - that Putin will be a tyrant rising to power in Asia.

The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash.


To a financial astrologer, this is unsurprising. Recently I connected with an enigmatic finance guy who for decades applied his astrological models in relative secret as a trader on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He was drawn to astrology via Buddhism, on which he overlaid, among other things, economist Joseph Schumpeter’s theory of cyclical creative destruction. The trader, who asked that his name not be used for fear of being shamed, cites Einstein to point out the universe is just a pattern of energy, and thus obviously shaped by the movements of large heavenly masses. How could markets not be affected by the sun, moon, and planets?

Unfortunately, the Fed is fallible, just like stock market investors. If inflation -- i.e., the rising price of goods and services -- begins to heat up, the nation’s central bank could choose to get considerably more hawkish with its monetary policy. Or, in plainer English, it could get more aggressive with hiking its benchmark short-term interest rate between banks. Should that happen, interest rates for variable rate loans and mortgages would be expected to rise. This, in turn, could put the brakes on economic growth, as well as increase delinquency rates tied to variable rate loans.
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