Jump up ^ Goetzmann, William N.; Rouwenhorst, K. Geert (2008). The History of Financial Innovation, in Carbon Finance, Environmental Market Solutions to Climate Change. (Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, chapter 1, pp. 18–43). As Goetzmann & Rouwenhorst (2008) noted, "The 17th and 18th centuries in the Netherlands were a remarkable time for finance. Many of the financial products or instruments that we see today emerged during a relatively short period. In particular, merchants and bankers developed what we would today call securitization. Mutual funds and various other forms of structured finance that still exist today emerged in the 17th and 18th centuries in Holland."
Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: And you want us to wait, even if it takes 73 to 86 years more for it to play out, right? I’ve asked myself that question, how long would I wait? Shiller predicted in 1996 that those going with high stock allocations would regret it within 10 years. That would have been 2006. We are now 12 years past that. This is the longest that we have ever gone with stocks at crazy high prices and not seen them crash (they crashed in 2008 but prices went back up after the passage of only a few months, so that crash didn’t turn out to be terribly consequential). Does there come a point when you just say “this has continued for so long that it just doesn’t make sense to continue to expect a crash?” The long wait is a point against Valuation-Informed Indexing, in my assessment. I can see someone saying “if stock prices had just recently risen to crazy high prices, I would listen to Shiller and Bennett and lower my stock allocation but this has gone on so long that I feel that they are like the boys who cried wolf, I just do not have confidence that what they are saying will happen will actually take place.”I don’t agree with that view. But I don’t see that view as being entirely unreasonable. So I don’t say that someone who concludes that “it has taken too long for prices to crash” and therefore rejects Valuation-Informed Indexing is crazy. The problem that I have with that view is that we all need to invest our money. If you are considering making a bet on the World Series but you can’t figure out whether the Red Sox or the Dodgers are the better baseball team, you can just elect not to place a bet either way. You can opt out of the choice. You can’t do that as an investor. You can’t say “Valuation-Informed Indexing beats Buy-and-Hold for about 10 different reasons but I am concerned about how long it has taken for the crash to arrive so I am just going to opt out of making a decision re how to invest my money because I don’t want to get it wrong.” You’ve got the […]
Selon la SEC, les « traders haute fréquence » et les intermédiaires furent acheteurs des premiers lots de contrats E-mini vendus par le programme, ce qui les rendait temporairement détenteurs de ces contrats. Les traders haute fréquence accumulèrent une position longue de 3 300 contrats. Entre 14 h 41 et 14 h 44, les traders haute fréquence vendirent de façon agressive 2 000 contrats E-Mini afin de réduire leurs positions longues. Dans le même temps, d'autres traders haute fréquence se mirent à échanger 140 000 contrats E-Mini représentant 33 % du volume total d'échange sur la journée. Cette chronologie était en adéquation avec les principes du trading à haute fréquence qui consiste à échanger de grandes quantités de titres sans jamais accumuler de positions shorts ou longues supérieures à 3 000 ou 4 000 contrats. Le programme de trading basé sur les volumes d'échanges réagit à l'augmentation du volume d'échanges en augmentant la vitesse à laquelle il alimentait le carnet d'ordres, bien que la plupart des ordres déjà envoyés au marché ne fussent pas encore traités et absorbés.
TALK WITH AN INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL. HE CAN ADVISE YOU ON OPENING AN ACCOUNT THAT MATCHES YOUR GOALS. I WOULD SUGGEST AN INDEX FUND FOR THOSE WITH LIMITED KNOWLEDGE OF THE MARKET. INVESTING IN INDIVIDUAL STOCKS IS A MIGHTY RISKY BUISNESS. THERE ARE SOME GOOD MUTUAL FUNDS BUT YOU REALLY NEED PROFESSIONAL HELP HERE, AND TAPE RECORD EVERYTHING THE SALESPERSON TELLS YOU.
I’ve posted Entry #418 to my weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing column at the Value Walk site. It’s called The Shiller Revolution Is About Shifting the Focus from Economics to Emotions. Juicy Excerpt: The Shiller investor would have been frightened by those gains. He would not have seen them as something to celebrate; he would likely have characterized them as “out of control.” All investors want the market to be as rational as possible; we have our retirement money invested in it. The difference, though, is that Buy-and-Holders see nothing concerning about big price gains — they are caused by economic developments as much as are small gains. Valuation-Informed Indexers, in contrast, see bull-market gains as emotion-generated gains. Times of high valuations are times of irrational exuberance. The times in which the market delivers big gains are the most dangerous times for stock investors. Related PostsValuation-Informed Indexing #267: Take Valuations Seriously and You Will Discover Things That You Were Not Initially Even Seeking to DiscoverValuation-Informed Indexing #260 : Shiller’s Ideas Should Be Treated as Mainstream IdeasValuation-Informed Indexing #268: Chase Utley’s “Dirty” Slide and Robert Shiller’s “Dirty” ResearchValuation-Informed Indexing #265: P/E10 Permits Us to Quantify Investor EmotionValuation-Informed Indexing #261: Unlike Long-Term Returns, Short-Term Return Sequences Are Highly UnpredictableValuation-Informed Indexing #255: How Developments Like the Greek Debt Crisis Affect Stock Prices
Seventh, US and global equity markets are frothy. Price-to-earnings ratios in the US are 50% above the historic average, private-equity valuations have become excessive, and government bonds are too expensive, given their low yields and negative term premia. And high-yield credit is also becoming increasingly expensive now that the US corporate-leverage rate has reached historic highs.
I recently posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Budgeting in the Fun Stuff blog. It's called The Last Days of Stock Investing Risk. Juicy Excerpt: You can never eliminate risk entirely because short-term returns are not at all predictable. But there is now 33 years of peer-reviewed research showing that long-term returns are highly predictable for those who consider valuations. Risk is optional! Go with a high stock allocation when prices are low, a moderate stock allocation when prices are at…
I love reading these and often look again for any updates. The world seems to be lurching in to ever more chaos. I hope that things do improve with the war situation overall. We really do not want more war, what we need is peace, harmony and for all the third world countries to be stable and for those people to have the same opportunities as those in the western world. Then there will be peace.
The markets peaked on August 25, 1987 with the Dow hitting a record 2722.44. Then the Dow started to head down and by September 22nd the Dow was down 8.4%. Then the markets rebounded and on October 2nd the Dow was up 5.9% from September 21st. Over the next 7 days the Dow would drop 13.5% from its high on August 25th. On October 19th, 1987 the market crashed. The Dow dropped 508 points or 22.6% for the day. This was a drop of 36.7% from the record high of 2722.44 on August 25, 1987. The stock market has lost 1/2 trillion dollars of wealth.
The movements of the prices in a market or section of a market are captured in price indices called stock market indices, of which there are many, e.g., the S&P, the FTSE and the Euronext indices. Such indices are usually market capitalization weighted, with the weights reflecting the contribution of the stock to the index. The constituents of the index are reviewed frequently to include/exclude stocks in order to reflect the changing business environment.
February of 2013 I had a dream prediction that Barrack Obama would be assassinated. Specifically, the dream precognition came twice, and was one of him being deleted as on a computer screen. So the assassination part was my interpretation, not the actual dream. I didn’t understand it the first time, then it repeated and I understood it, so it didn’t have to repeat again.
Learning about the Stock Market Crash of 1929 and The Great Depression can be hard to understand for a young student. This book really helps the reader understand what really happened and helps them to be well informed of the events that took place over eighty years ago. The book really captures the reader's attention and keeps it throughout the book. Whether your students are or aren't big on learning about history, they will most likely enjoy this book. It is a very interesting topic and a very informative book. I would like to have this book in my classroom library.
I have recently started reading the first Nostradamus book by Dolores Cannon. Cannon was a hypnotherapist who transgressed her research subjects into a somnambulism if trance. This is the state in which all people become clairvoyant and have access to past lives, history and lost knowledge. With some of Cannon’s subjects, Nostradamus came through and gave detailed explanations about the meaning of his quatrains.
Retrograde Venus will rise in the East on 1st and will create Bullishness in the stocks of jewellery, Gold, Sugar, Cotton and Textiles. Stocks of Capital goods companies e.g. Crompton Greaves, Havells and Blue star etc will sore higher. Sun will enter in Scorpio sign on 16th and thereby conjoin with Jupiter & Mercury. The Indices are likely to move Northwards. Retrograde Mercury will enter Anuradha constellation, 4th pada on 22nd. Stocks of hospitality industry, Travels and budget hotels (Kamat, Sinclair, EIH, ITC, Thomas cook etc) will be in demand. Energy stocks, Electricity sector stocks and Crude will show Bullish trend. The stocks of REC, PTC, PTF and Tata motors etc will be the favourite of the long term investors.
Have you ever dreamed of owning multiple homes or a giant yacht? How about owning a large piece of land where you can literally do whatever you want, or dreamed of traveling the world with little thought of how much money you’re spending? If you’ve ever had these lofty goals in your head, then it’s definitely time to download the book Stock Trading: A Crash Course to Get Quickly Started and Make Immediate Cash with Stock Trading right now!
The Investment Strategy TesterIf you are worried about losses you have suffered in recent years, you can use this tool to learn what you need to do to get back on the track to early financial freedom. The Strategy Tester lets you design a strategy you want to check out. Then it runs the hundreds of Scenario Surfer tests to see how the strategy compares with other possibilities you identify. The color-coded graphic gives you a good idea of what the odds are of good and bad outcomes for up to four investing strategies at a time.
It is truly perplexing that an instance of such a great importance as what happened with Shri Devachandraji remained hidden unnoticed from Indian society of even the central and northern parts of India for over three centuries. Those divine verses spread over in 14 books of TV were gradually published starting from decade of 1980’s by present day disciples of one who is known by his title as Mahamati Prananath. These contain highest spiritual truths that in my opinion were not revealed by God via scriptures of all ancient faiths – but collate well with them.
Oil price spikes have contributed to every recession since World War II by sapping consumer purchasing power, according to Moody’s. U.S. benchmark crude oil prices of about $65 a barrel are up from a low of about $26 in early 2016 and $59 early this year but well below the $112 reached in 2014. And average gasoline prices are just under $3 a gallon compared with more than $4 four years ago.
Juicy Moderator Comment: I’d be interested to see why you don’t agree with the views stated here…. I’d like to hear the arguments. I assume that you’re tired of hearing the same view points over and over again, but there are some of us who aren’t part of this history and won’t mind reading different ideas (given that they are made appropriately) on investing. If I get tired of the alleged ‘trolling’ done by anyone to anyone else, I’ll make sure to mediate the debate accordingly.
I cannot really comment on predictions made by American psychics or any other psychics come to that. The only way you can judge if her predictions are real is to look careful at predictions she has got right in the past. You need to also look at the ones she got wrong too or were made to fit after the event. I have not personally ‘seen’ any of the things you have described in this post.
The trend towards forms of saving with a higher risk has been accentuated by new rules for most funds and insurance, permitting a higher proportion of shares to bonds. Similar tendencies are to be found in other developed countries. In all developed economic systems, such as the European Union, the United States, Japan and other developed nations, the trend has been the same: saving has moved away from traditional (government insured) "bank deposits to more risky securities of one sort or another".
In other words, bear markets are part of investing. You can’t avoid them – but you can make sure a bear market doesn’t wipe you out. Rule number one is to diversify, and periodically rebalance your portfolio. When a correction, stock market crash or bear market comes along, the stocks that fall the most are those that are trading at the highest valuations, those with the most debt, and those with the lowest margins.
In one paper the authors draw an analogy with gambling. In normal times the market behaves like a game of roulette; the probabilities are known and largely independent of the investment decisions of the different players. In times of market stress, however, the game becomes more like poker (herding behavior takes over). The players now must give heavy weight to the psychology of other investors and how they are likely to react psychologically.
Rather than trying to time the market, which is incredibly hard to do and often counterproductive, it can be helpful to remember that the attractive long-term returns to the stock market include many market crashes. Depending on your measurement criteria, time-period and exactly what index you look at well-diversified portfolio have averaged returns of around 6%-10% a year over time.
Set forth below are links to eight Guest Blog Entries I've written on the Valuation-Informed Indexing investing strategy: 1) What's the Best Age at Which to Experience a Stock Crash?, at Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance; 2) A Better and Safer Way to Invest in Stocks, at the Foolish Blogging Network; 3) Playing Dominion vs. Playing the Market, at Free From Broke; 4) Stocks Are Not Risky for Those Willing to Tune Out the Wall Street Mumbo Jumbo; at Everyday Tips and Thoughts; 5)…
After the experience of the 1929 crash, stock markets around the world instituted measures to suspend trading in the event of rapid declines, claiming that the measures would prevent such panic sales. However, the one-day crash of Black Monday, October 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 22.6%, was worse in percentage terms than any single day of the 1929 crash (although the combined 25% decline of October 28–29, 1929 was larger than October 19, 1987, and remains the worst two-day decline ever).
No, timing is everything actually Beffett’s money was made in 1970s He got out of the Market completely in 1968 and closed his partnership because of high valuations not supported by anything – same thing in 2000, 2007,. Patience means nothing if you are 70 and not working. Sure, when you are young dollar cost works well, but we are not all the same age and cycle. Someday cash is king. COT.COM crash was like the Gold crash of 1976 everyone wanted in – that’s when to fear, when everyone wants out that’s when to buy. Schiller is right.
Blague à part, même si vous gérez vous-même vos placements, je pense que les planificateurs financiers ont encore un rôle à jouer. Ils peuvent vous encadrer quant aux aspects légaux, aux assurances, à la fiscalité, à la gestion du risque, à la planification de la retraite, à la succession et aux placements (pour ceux qui ont les accréditations nécessaires). Bien qu’ils soient payés à la commission sur la vente de produits financiers, leurs rôles débordent largement de celui du simple conseiller en placement. Ainsi, les frais de gestion et le rendement des placements ne sont pas les seuls éléments à considérer. Plusieurs services valables, qui méritent une rémunération, sont également offerts.
What’s particularly great about these blogs is how simple they make everything. Often people are afraid to invest because they may not understand the jargon or believe investing involves complicated mathematical equations that are beyond their scope of comprehension. However, these blogs are written in ways that anyone can understand because their sole purpose is to demystify investing.
Planetary indications are indicating that the Bulls are getting tired and the Bears will spread their muscles by short selling. Profit booking by the buyers, short term traders and the retail investors will pull the Indices down. Mars will enter Capricorn sign and conjoin with Ketu on 2nd. Mars will aspect Sun in Aries. Although the Bears will try to create negative and dull sentiments yet the market will be led by the Bulls in the first week. Mercury, the planet of business & commerce, will enter in Aries sign and thus conjoin with Sun. It will be under the aspect of Mars & Jupiter. This planetary cocktail will keep the traders guessing and suddenly set Bearish tone. Sun will move to Taurus and Venus will move to Gemini on 14th. Venus will be under the aspect of Saturn & Jupiter. This will create a mixed reaction. Change in the trend will be visible from 27th, when Mercury will conjoin Sun in Taurus. Overall view for the May month is Bearish.
In Berkshire's 2017 shareholder letter, Buffett outlined four times when Berkshire stock fell 37% or more, representing what he called "truly major dips." The biggest decline occurred from March 1973 to January 1975, when Berkshire stock declined a whopping 59%. "In the next 53 years our shares (and others) will experience declines resembling those in the table," Buffett said about these four major declines. "No one can tell you when these will happen. The light can at any time go from green to red without pausing at yellow.
Vanguard tracks data to predict the likelihood of a recession at certain points in the future. In recent years, the company has put the probability of a recession six months out at close to 10 percent. Now, Vanguard says the chances of one by late 2020 are between 30 and 40 percent. That’s Vanguard’s highest-ever estimate for that time frame, Mr. Davis said. (A six-month forecast reported a greater than 40 percent probability before the recession that started in December 2007.)
China and Indonesia hit again (CORRECT: 6/10? This post and video were made on 18th Sept 2018. Ten days later on the 28th September, there is a Tsunami in Indonesia. This post, however, says ‘Typhoons’ and relates to 2019 but it is interesting that I spoke about an environmental disaster in Indonesia. CNN Report here.) but this time hurricanes move north and hit Japan too. In 2019 Japan will see extensive flooding.
I predicted that a war will come to America. I had a dream a few months back, I was running up to a home trying to survive gun fire. As soon as I got in the home I went to the balcony and yelled out blame obama. As I yelled I saw jets, and helicopters above me shooting at a large city. Right after that I was shot by helicopters and woke up. I have also had predictions of flooding and major volcanoes from California to Washington about every night.
Set forth below are eight Guest Blog Entries I have written dealing with the Valuation-Informed Indexing investment strategy or that others have written commenting on it. 1) The Risks of Buy-and-Hold Investing, at the Pop Economics blog. 2) Valuation-Informed Indexing Is Risk-Diminished Investing, submitted to Pop Economics but ultimately posted at A Rich Life. 3) When Stock Prices Crash, Where Does the Money Go?, at the Budgets Are Sexy blog. 4) Stock Market Strategy: Timing Based…
Beer, Memes, and Microsoft: WHEN WOLVERINE SAID THE CAN I HELP? ARE YOU A BEER? MOST VETERAN THING EVER I started making memes on a government computer with microsoft paint. Now I manage almost 3 million followers with my media company and travel the world. Pursue your talents, I wish mine was the stock market or rocket science instead of memes but hey 🤷🏻♂️
But you should also crunch a few numbers and then do a little soul searching. Estimate how Vanguard's suggested mix would have performed during the late 2007-through-early 2009 slump, when stock prices declined nearly 60% in value and investment-grade bonds gained about 7%. If you think you would cave and begin selling in the face of such a loss, you might want to dial back your target stock position a bit.
I think worldwide economic chaos could occur during 2018 - 2020, as the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse ride, with the Third Horseman being Economic Chaos. World economics could see stock market swings in 2019 - 2020. Watch out for Europe's economy having problems 2019 - 2020. There could be continued economic problems in Europe. The 3rd horseman of the apocalypse economic chaos rides. Note that this is a case of "the road to Hell is paved with good intentions". Good intentions: the Euro single currency seemed like a good idea. Road to Hell: some of the countries (Greece and others) with uncontrolled deficits and borrowing dragged down all of Europe's economy. And Putin may want to take over more of the former Soviet Union countries, similar to Ukraine.
Many people have predicted World War 3 taking place soon with Putin’s official announcement in late February 2018 of Russia’s invincible nuclear capability where the nuclear missiles are impossible to be detected by US when launched https://youtu.be/gSuv0CzSnts Many devoted Christians also have similar dreams from God warning of Russia and China invading US and Russian nuclear missiles bombing New York City such as https://unitedstatesprophecy.com/russia-will-attack-and-invade-america/
Another way to find solid books about investing is to look for unbiased information. That's exactly what Johnson tells some of her wealth management clients to do when they are learning about investing in the marketplace. When asked about one of her recommendations for a book about personal finance and investing, she immediately mentioned a book written by a financial journalist because of the author's ability to just state the facts.
Most of the professional investors are signaling signs of a market collapse in next two three years before 2020 starts. Market crash in 2000 was sparked by technology sector failure and 2008 crash was sparked by real estate and property. But today almost all sectors have been overvalued. Many sectors listed at S&P 500 are trading at the highest level seen in last ten years.