I’m a bit late to this. Today the IMF live streamed an hour discussion about changes to global economy and it mirrored what you’ve been tracking and writing. The video is likely still on IMF site to watch. It was good tho scary. They said countries should embrace service economies entered on empathy especially targeting aging seniors. You’d like the video so wanted to mention it as you give us so much.

It look really bad in 2012 and I took everything and pushed it conservative. Bad timing. I wasn’t thinking and I wasn’t looking at the charts. I am now and I know exactly what to do. I retire in just about 15 years. By then, if we don’t have a full on collapse, I expect to be STINKING RICH. Everyone could be. All you have to do is look at the charts. The right ones of course. I’ve been sworn to secrecy and that is all the clue I will give, but, suffice it to say that there is a pattern that even a monkey could see if he looked.
The Tesco supermarket chain is involved in litigation such as the Ward v Tesco Stores Ltd and Tesco Supermarkets Ltd v Nattrass cases. Tesco have been criticized for aggressively pursuing critics of the company in Thailand. Writer and former MP Jit Siratranont faced up to two years in jail and a £16.4 million libel damages claim for saying that Tesco was expanding aggressively at the expense of small local retailers. Tesco served him with writs for criminal defamation and civil libel. The Thai court dismissed the case, ruling that the criticism made by the defendant was 'in good faith by way of fair comment on any person or thing subjected to public criticism'.[140]
“ Business ventures with multiple shareholders became popular with commenda contracts in medieval Italy (Greif 2006, 286), and Malmendier (2009) provides evidence that shareholder companies date back to ancient Rome. Yet the title of the world's first stock market deservedly goes to that of seventeenth-century Amsterdam, where an active secondary market in company shares emerged. The two major companies were the Dutch East India Company and the Dutch West India Company, founded in 1602 and 1621. Other companies existed, but they were not as large and constituted a small portion of the stock market. ”
The crucial point of their paper was that sandpile avalanches could not be predicted, and not because of randomness (there was no random component in their model) or because the authors could not figure out how to come up with equations to describe it. Rather, they found it impossible in a fundamental sense to set up equations that would describe the sandpile model analytically, so there was no way to predict what the sandpile would do. The only way to observe its behavior was to set up the model in a computer and let it run.
Other important economic barometers were also slowing or even falling by mid-1929, including car sales, house sales, and steel production. The falling commodity and industrial production may have dented even American self-confidence, and the stock market peaked on September 3 at 381.17 just after Labor Day, then started to falter after Roger Babson issued his prescient "market crash" forecast. By the end of September, the market was down 10% from the peak (the "Babson Break"). Selling intensified in early and mid October, with sharp down days punctuated by a few up days. Panic selling on huge volume started the week of October 21 and intensified and culminated on October 24, the 28th, and especially the 29th ("Black Tuesday").[26]
The crash in 1987 raised some puzzles – main news and events did not predict the catastrophe and visible reasons for the collapse were not identified. This event raised questions about many important assumptions of modern economics, namely, the theory of rational human conduct, the theory of market equilibrium and the efficient-market hypothesis. For some time after the crash, trading in stock exchanges worldwide was halted, since the exchange computers did not perform well owing to enormous quantity of trades being received at one time. This halt in trading allowed the Federal Reserve System and central banks of other countries to take measures to control the spreading of worldwide financial crisis. In the United States the SEC introduced several new measures of control into the stock market in an attempt to prevent a re-occurrence of the events of Black Monday.
Pour ma part, je vise une diversification géographique sur trois FNB (1/3 Canada, 1/3 U.S et 1/3 reste du monde). Ainsi, j’envisage investir dans un fonds strictement canadien, un autre strictement U.S. et un autre pour le reste du monde (excluant l’Amérique du Nord). Cependant, je ne suis pas planificateur financier, alors je ne peux pas légalement vous conseiller.
Indeed, Tesla’s performance has all the makings of a stock market crash chart to reflect the irrational exuberance of 2018. Investors have pushed Tesla’s stock market valuation to such a degree that it has infected the healthiest hedge fund. It’s a one-stock Black Monday warning! Note the Tesla stock market chart. It’s moving on hope and expectations alone; every time the quarter results are released, the stock tends to drop.
October 2018 is turning out to be a lot like October 2008.  The S&P 500 has now fallen for 12 of the last 14 trading days, and it is on pace for its worst October since the last financial crisis.  But the U.S. is actually in much better shape than the rest of the world at this point.  Even though they have fallen precipitously in recent days, U.S. stocks are still up 3 percent for the year overall.  On the other hand, global stocks (excluding the U.S.) are now down more than 10 percent for the year, and they are down more than 15 percent from the peak of the market in January.  All it is going to take is a couple more really bad trading sessions to push global stocks into bear market territory.
The environment is top of my list because I feel 2018 will see unprecedented earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and ferocious weather. (Correct 10:10 Sadly, Jan 2018 we have seen the start of this) I have been saying for some years that we can expect this – not just because of global warming but also because of increased activity of the Sun. We have seen terrible hurricanes but I feel there is worse to come.
I couldn’t disagree with you more on the Mueller work. For one thing, the Russian social media shenanigans were far from tame. Tens of thousands of Americans in Democratic districts were tricked into “voting online” by Facebook posts. Many more turned against Clinton based on horrible lies expertly planted by the offenders. Consider that Trump won by a mere 70,000 votes over four states. While the U.S. surely got a taste of its own medicine, interfering in a nation’s election is serious business.
Anaconda, Friday, and Memes: 500 5000 500 BUSINESS THE DOW DROP 4000 Feb 6 | The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted the largest-ever point decline yesterday. The Dow Jones, a stock market index of publicly-traded companies based in the U.S., posted its largest-ever, single-day decline of more than 1,100 points. Since Friday, the Dow has dropped a total of 7%. This is the largest percent decline since August of 2011. ____ Photo: WSJ Market Data Group
Sur 10 ans, 5000$ d’épargnes par an à 4% de rendement donne 62,000$ et à 8% 78,000$… c’est loin d’être life changing! Mais déjà pour obtenir 8% il faudra probablement prendre plus de risques donc le risque faire un rendement négatif, de perdre de l’argent etc. Car plus on veut du rendement, plus il faut s’attendre à voir de la volatilité dans notre portefeuille.
A stock market, equity market or share market is the aggregation of buyers and sellers (a loose network of economic transactions, not a physical facility or discrete entity) of stocks (also called shares), which represent ownership claims on businesses; these may include securities listed on a public stock exchange, as well as stock that is only traded privately. Examples of the latter include shares of private companies which are sold to investors through equity crowdfunding platforms. Stock exchanges list shares of common equity as well as other security types, e.g. corporate bonds and convertible bonds.
The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is a physical exchange, with a hybrid market for placing orders electronically from any location as well as on the trading floor. Orders executed on the trading floor enter by way of exchange members and flow down to a floor broker, who submits the order electronically to the floor trading post for the Designated Market Maker ("DMM") for that stock to trade the order. The DMM's job is to maintain a two-sided market, making orders to buy and sell the security when there are no other buyers or sellers. If a spread exists, no trade immediately takes place – in this case the DMM may use their own resources (money or stock) to close the difference. Once a trade has been made, the details are reported on the "tape" and sent back to the brokerage firm, which then notifies the investor who placed the order. Computers play an important role, especially for program trading.
The stock market crash of October 1929 led directly to the Great Depression in Europe. When stocks plummeted on the New York Stock Exchange, the world noticed immediately. Although financial leaders in the United Kingdom, as in the United States, vastly underestimated the extent of the crisis that would ensue, it soon became clear that the world's economies were more interconnected than ever. The effects of the disruption to the global system of financing, trade, and production and the subsequent meltdown of the American economy were soon felt throughout Europe.[39]
Buffett is being optimistic. In fact, if history can offer any lessons, note that the Dow Jones 100 years ago, in 1917, stood at 1,328 points. That would be less than 20 times the current number. But Buffett probably doesn’t have to worry too much about the events that may or may not occur in the 22nd century. Now, as far as the present is concerned, you can be sure that Buffett chooses his words and predictions more carefully, as it were.
Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050.
I've posted the third entry to my monthly column at the Balance Junkie site. It's called Liberals Came Closer Than Conservatives With Their Explanation of the Economic Crisis. Juicy Excerpt: The comedian John Stewart had a funny line re this aspect of the story. There was a debate in the early days that executives of firms in the financial sector should be denied bonuses because they would be out of work but for the bailouts they received from the U.S. taxpayers. One executive complained…
There are a lot of threats to the market, not the least of which is that this bull is long in the tooth and valuations have gotten quite high. However, making market predictions is an exercise in hubris. I have lost much more money than I have made in the stock market by listening to one prediction or another. These days, I try to stay diversified in good quality assets (not just stocks) and don’t base my holdings on what I think the market will do in the future.
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