Remarquez, cela n’invalide en rien du tout la recommandation de Buffet de s’en tenir à un fonds indiciel, un FNB à très peu de frais sur le long terme. Rien n’indique, pourtant, qu’il réussirait à nouveau son fameux défi du S&P 500 de 2007 à 2017 contre les fonds mutuels. Or, c’est justement la stratégie que je suis en train de reproduire sous son influence pour mon CELI… ouille! Me voilà complètement hors de ma zone de confort… J’ignore si je vais pouvoir tenir le coup aussi longtemps!
After all, he said, it took only 3 years for such a portfolio to recover all of its losses after the roughly 50 percent stock market decline of the last crash. But withstanding losses like those without selling any holdings took extreme fortitude. That’s why it was easier to live with a broadly diversified portfolio, with 50 percent stocks and 50 percent bonds. Such a portfolio recovered all of its losses in just one year, not three, according to data provided by Mr. Kinniry.
Falling liquidity may occur if banks stop extending credit or if a regulator increases the margin requirements for traders. Sometimes when a central bank raises interest rates, banks will begin to call in some of their loans, triggering a shortage of liquidity in the market. The simplest explanation is that at some point the money runs out. Markets rise while investors continue to buy, and when they run out of money, markets fall. The exact cause of a crash is often easy to see in hindsight, but difficult to see at the time.
Set forth below is the text of an e-mail that I sent to the author of the Pop Economics Blog on February 25: Pop: This is Rob Bennett, author of the "A Rich Life" blog. Rajiv Sethi linked yesterday to your blog entry defending the Buy-and-Hold model from my criticisms of it. In my comment (at the bottom of the long comments section), I said that I would contact you to see if you have an interest in hosting a Guest Blog Entry by me responding to the points you made in the "Rob Bait"…
I've been a stockbroker for more than twenty years so I approached the book with experience in the investment market. I thought I knew a great deal about the causes and course of the '29 Crash but this book certainly opened my eyes. I had heard of famous men like William Durant and Richard Whitney but I never knew the wide ranging courses of their careers. One of the main lessons I drew from the book is the comparison between the actions of both the elite and the commoners in 1929 vs. those of the elite and the commoners in the Great Recession of 2008 to the present. Recommend this book highly to anybody interested in economic history or the history of the USA in the 20th Century.
Shadox at the Money and Such blog recently posted a blog entry entitled Passive Investing Is for Extremists: The Critque. Juicy Excerpt: His main claim relates no so much to how you invest in stocks, but rather to the percentage of your portfolio that is invested in this asset class, regardless of which stocks or stock funds you put your money into. I think that it is more correct to say that Rob is against passive asset allocation, than he is against passive investing as I understand…
Thank you. Before you do anything else, realise that you have Pluto at 1 Scorpio in the Eighth House of banks, currency and business. Starting slowly on May 15th and intensifying in June, Uranus (shock, revolution) will pass 1 Taurus and oppose that. So you will experience transiting Uranus opposite Pluto and that is going to change your world. When you say you work for a small bank taken over by a foreign investor, it is really clear that global shifts will personally affect you. In general you will benefit from the changes this year as you have a Scorpio stellium, apart from Pluto, later in the sign and Jupiter with all his solutions, breakthroughs and big answers will be in the later degrees of Scorpio from this point onwards, until November. Jupiter conjunct your Mars at 26 Scorpio in October brings gains, benefits and advantages to your personal ‘push’ over the money, house, business, charity, possessions or house, across the European Autumn. Before you get there, though, you do need to take a deep breath and find out exactly who and what you will be dealing with, in this unpredictable new world, and so you really do need to walk your way through May, June and the following months to get the measure of it all. This is not the world any of us ever knew.
THE END TIMES EVENTS AND DISASTERS COULD OCCUR IN 2018 - 2019 - 2022: THE ANTICHRIST PUTIN IS ATTEMPTING TO TAKE OVER THE WORLD. POSSIBLY RUSSIA OR NORTH KOREA STARTS A NUCLEAR WAR, AND THE FOUR HORSEMEN OF THE APOCALYPSE RIDING IN 2019 - 2022. THE FOURTH HORSEMAN OF THE APOCALYPSE DEATH RIDING. IN 2019 - 2022 THE FOUR HORSEMEN OF THE APOCALYPSE RIDE: THE FIRST HORSEMAN THE ANTICHRIST 666 IS PUTIN, THE SECOND HORSEMAN WAR IN UKRAINE, RUSSIA, NORTH KOREA - SOUTH KOREA NUCLEAR WAR, IRAQ WITH ISIS TERRORISTS, SYRIA, AND MUSLIM ISIS TERRORIST ATTACKS IN EUROPE, THE FOURTH DEATH AS DISEASE EPIDEMICS - POSSIBLY EBOLA SARS OR BIRD FLU or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
A light-hearted look back on the six key lessons that investors can learn from studying stock market history. There are better times to invest in equities than others, but - crucially - we only know whether now is a good time or not with the benefit of hindsight. The good news is that, even if you invest just as markets are about to tumble - as they did in 1929, for example - you will be rewarded if you hold tight and resist the temptation to keep tinkering with your portfolio.
The JPMorgan model calculates outcomes based on the length of the economic expansion, the potential duration of the next recession, the degree of leverage, asset-price valuations and the level of deregulation and financial innovation before the crisis. Assuming an average-length recession, the model came up with the following peak-to-trough performance estimates for different asset classes in the next crisis, according to the note.
Suddenly his phone rang, but after a glance, he hit mute. Nepal’s Finance Minister Gyanendra Bahadur Karki was calling for advice. With Nepal on the precipice of becoming a major hydroelectric energy powerhouse, this hasn’t been an unusual occurrence; Vashistha predicted that any conversation with Karki would be a long one (he would know) and decided to focus on my own financial destiny instead.
Be prepared for the potential of civil unrest. If the banks put a limit on withdrawals (or close like they did in Greece) you can look for some panic to occur. If the stores dramatically increase prices or close..more panic. Be armed and be prepared to stay safely at home. (Although this article was written during the Ferguson race riots, civil unrest follows a similar pattern regardless of the cause.)
It wasn’t until the 1960s that the vocation was quasi-professionalized by a longtime Consolidated Edison Inc. employee who went by the name of Lieutenant Commander David Williams. Williams came to astrology via the burgeoning theory of “business cycles,” which posited that the market’s ups and downs have little to do with the particulars of companies or events but much to do with such patterns as the Fibonacci sequence, sunspots, or variations on Pi. Many of these, he thought, were themselves connected to planetary cycles. He found that during a series of 9.226-year cycles, the stock market bottomed out 80 percent of the time at Aries and Libra positions and crested 80 percent of the time at Cancer and Capricorn.
Memes, News, and Twitter: OX WS T or "With all my Administration has done on Legislative Approvals (broke Harry Truman's Record), Regulation Cutting, Judicial Appointments, Building Military, VA, TAX CUTS & REFORM, Record Economy/Stock Market and so much more, I am sure great credit will be given by mainstream news?"" ー@realDonaldTrump Moments ago, President Donald J. Trump wondered on Twitter whether the "mainstream news" would ever give him credit for his purported accomplishments in office.
Real Wealth Strategist is an investment newsletter. Matt Badiali’s work has taken him to Papua New Guinea, Iraq, Hong Kong, Singapore, Haiti, Turkey, Switzerland and many other locations around the world. He’s visited countless mines and oil wells internationally, interrogated CEOs about their latest resource prospects and analyzed all manners of geologic data. Matt believes the best way to be sure if an investment is safe (and correctly made) is to see it in person.
So this is the rectified chart I did. In this one you can see Uranus hitting the Saturn in the 9th and Pluto is at 19 degrees. In this one Mars is right on the cusp of the 5th. The 5th rules gambling and we can see Venus/South Node/Sun/Mercury transiting the 7th making a roll over natal Pluto in Aquarius (7th house/legal issues) and most of those planets making an opposition to the natal Uranus in the 1st house. Neptune is also in the 8th starting to oppose the natal Mars and starting an inconjunction to natal Uranus in the 1st – lots of volatility. Transiting Saturn is also in the 5th making a trine to Venus causing constriction in gambling but it seems to suggest that once it moves past the 5th it could settle down. Now I’m going to go back to the alternate chart and see if it makes a big difference for this same period.
John Mackey, CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Sean Williams has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Alphabet (A shares), Alphabet (C shares), Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Netflix. The Motley Fool has the following options: long January 2020 $150 calls on Apple and short January 2020 $155 calls on Apple. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
In 1907 and in 1908, the NYSE fell by nearly 50% due to a variety of factors, led by the manipulation of copper stocks by the Knickerbocker company. Shares of United Copper rose gradually up to October, and thereafter crashed, leading to panic. A number of investment trusts and banks that had invested their money in the stock market fell and started to close down. Further bank runs were prevented due to the intervention of J.P.Morgan. The panic continued to 1908 finally and led to the formation of the Federal reserve in 1913.
At this stage, several roadblocks arise. First, there’s the issue of platform scale to consider. A meme might begin its life on Twitter, then move over to Facebook, or it might begin on Tumblr and migrate to Instagram. Some platforms won’t intersect; a meme may live out its entire existence on 4chan, never to feel the warm rush of a mother’s Facebook share. But the size of a platform can have a huge impact on how many times a meme is posted. Just because a particular meme had the good fortune to exist on Facebook instead of on Tumblr, does that mean it’s inherently more “valuable” than a Tumblr-only meme?
Research at the New England Complex Systems Institute has found warning signs of crashes using new statistical analysis tools of complexity theory. This work suggests that the panics that lead to crashes come from increased mimicry in the market. A dramatic increase in market mimicry occurred during the whole year before each market crash of the past 25 years, including the recent financial crisis. When investors closely follow each other's cues, it is easier for panic to take hold and affect the market. This work is a mathematical demonstration of a significant advance warning sign of impending market crashes.
I had decided to find out what German clairvoyants say about the future of Europe, went on YouTube and came across a video called “Palmblatt-Prophezeihungen, Katastrophale Zulu ft says such ten Europa a 2018”. The source of the videos’ text is Thomas Ritter, a collector of Naadi oracle leaves ( German: Palmblatt). He had some Naadi leaves translated by a retired professor who understands the symbols used in the leaves. The prophecies are published on his website and they talk about the coming changes in Europe. Bearing in mind that the original Naadi leaves are thousands of years old, the prophecies are absolutely mind-boggling and corroborate prophecies from other sources.
Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe.
The number of major store chains shutting down or downsizing is remarkable. One of the latest to fall is Toys “R” Us. Some may find consolation in the fact that one of the reasons for the crumbling of traditional brick-and-mortar stores—but by no means the only one—has been Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN). But the day could come when even this giant is slain.
Originally a UK grocer, Tesco has expanded globally since the early 1990s, with operations in 11 other countries in the world. The company pulled out of the USA in 2013, but as of 2018 continues to see growth elsewhere. Since the 1960s, Tesco has diversified into areas such as the retailing of books, clothing, electronics, furniture, toys, petrol, software, financial services, telecoms, and internet services. In the 1990s Tesco repositioned itself from being a down-market high-volume low-cost retailer, to one designed to attract a range of social groups by offering products ranging from low-cost "Tesco Value" items (launched 1993) to its "Tesco Finest" range. This broadening of its appeal was successful and saw the chain grow from 500 shops in the mid-1990s to 2,500 shops fifteen years later.
Lately, things have worked out better for me than they have in the past, but, if the market crashes, I will take a hit along with almost everyone else. I still own stocks because that is where the best returns are, but I try to stay diversified in stocks of companies that are very likely to survive a serious recession. If I sold my stocks, where would I put the money? Returns on bank savings and short term bonds are less than inflation. Long term bonds look just as risky as stocks to me, maybe riskier.