Le 6 mai 2010, en début d'après-midi, le Dow Jones a commencé à décliner pendant que la crise de la dette publique grecque s'intensifiait et alors que la plupart des grands indices financiers aussi bien sur le marché des futures9 que sur les marchés des actions avait déjà subi une baisse d'environ 4 %. À 14 h 27, la baisse s'accentua. À 14 h 45, elle devint vertigineuse avec des ticks (en) à trois chiffres. En trois minutes, le Dow Jones perdit 433 points. Mais à 14 h 57, le Dow Jones avait repris 619,42 points. Les prix de nombreuses actions avaient connu une importante baisse, suivie d'une remontée en quelques minutes. Soudainement, une nouvelle baisse de 5,6 % intervint avant de s'annuler tout aussi rapidement. Environ 8 000 titres de sociétés et ETF échangés alors ont enregistré des mouvements de cours similaires, perdant de 5 % à 15 % avant de les regagner en totalité ou presque. Des actions ont subi des mouvements de prix encore plus sévères. Environ 20 000 échanges boursiers concernant 300 sociétés ont été exécutés à des prix supérieurs ou inférieurs à 60 % de leurs valeurs quelques instants auparavant. À la fin de la journée, la plupart des indices actions avaient perdu 3 % par rapport au cours de clôture de la veille. Le Dow Jones, qui avait ouvert la séance à 10 862,22 points, a atteint un plus bas de 9 787,17 points avant de clôturer à 10 520,32 points.
"This is a most fascinating book about an intriguing but also a controversial topic. It is written by an expert in a very straightforward style and is illustrated by many clear figures. Why Stock Markets Crash will surely raise scientific interest in the emerging new field of econophysics."―Cars H. Hommes, Director of the Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance, University of Amsterdam
But you should also crunch a few numbers and then do a little soul searching. Estimate how Vanguard's suggested mix would have performed during the late 2007-through-early 2009 slump, when stock prices declined nearly 60% in value and investment-grade bonds gained about 7%. If you think you would cave and begin selling in the face of such a loss, you might want to dial back your target stock position a bit.
A crash seems likely, probably with internet stocks and shares, as we are approaching the anniversary of the end of the AT&T telephone monopoly. The monopoly of big players like Google, Facebook, Twitter is uncannily similar to that situation all those years ago. One gets the impression of bargain basement shares, though, with a quick return for a few people, as we are also going through Jupiter in Scorpio, the wealth sign. It’s a classic line-up for basically a car boot sale of reduced stock with some people mopping up their tears with beer, and others clinking the champagne glasses. Win some, lose some, is really what you get with Uranus in Taurus and Jupiter in Scorpio. I’ll read this with interest, thank you!
In the world of personal finance, there’s a long-standing debate that never seems to go away. Should you hire a financial advisor or can you just teach yourself how to invest? Some investing experts are even adamantly against hiring financial advisors and believe that an individual can learn everything they need to know on their own. Meanwhile, others insist on hiring a financial advisor who knows the market better than you do.
Sixth, Europe, too, will experience slower growth, owing to monetary-policy tightening and trade frictions. Moreover, populist policies in countries such as Italy may lead to an unsustainable debt dynamic within the eurozone. The still-unresolved “doom loop” between governments and banks holding public debt will amplify the existential problems of an incomplete monetary union with inadequate risk-sharing. Under these conditions, another global downturn could prompt Italy and other countries to exit the eurozone altogether.
Le fonds Fidelity Special Situations est composé de 54% d’actions canadiennes et 40% d’actions américaines de petites et moyennes capitalisations (petites et moyennes entreprises qui versent généralement peu de dividendes ou aucun). À mon avis, c’est risqué compte tenu de votre âge. Il faudrait constituer un portefeuille équilibré contenant 40-50% d’actions et 50-60% d’obligations. Le rendement réaliste et prudent à long terme est 5%. Souvenez-vous de la règle de Buffett : ne pas perdre votre capital. Le fonds Fidelity Special Situations pourrait être approprié pour un investisseur qui a un horizon de placement à long terme (plus de 10 ans).
Together, the 1929 stock market crash and the Great Depression formed the largest financial crisis of the 20th century. The panic of October 1929 has come to serve as a symbol of the economic contraction that gripped the world during the next decade. The falls in share prices on October 24 and 29, 1929 were practically instantaneous in all financial markets, except Japan.
Other important economic barometers were also slowing or even falling by mid-1929, including car sales, house sales, and steel production. The falling commodity and industrial production may have dented even American self-confidence, and the stock market peaked on September 3 at 381.17 just after Labor Day, then started to falter after Roger Babson issued his prescient "market crash" forecast. By the end of September, the market was down 10% from the peak (the "Babson Break"). Selling intensified in early and mid October, with sharp down days punctuated by a few up days. Panic selling on huge volume started the week of October 21 and intensified and culminated on October 24, the 28th, and especially the 29th ("Black Tuesday").
Also, investments and business dealings with Russia should be avoided. Europe and in particular Germany, which are increasing economic and political connections with Russia, I think are making a big mistake that will be regretted when Putin turns against Europe in the future. Putin is evil, but Europe will be fooled by him. Watch out for a mother bear (Russia) that has lost its cubs (Russia's empire), it can be an angry mother bear. I think Russia's economy will actually grow under Putin, but I think Russia will turn very dangerous and angry towards the West within a few years.
In the case of books, it would be wise not to try to reinvent the wheel. If you know a book is excellent for investing, then pick it up and start reading. For example, if Warren Buffet says to read “The Intelligent Investor” by Benjamin Graham then you’d better find it and start reading. Admittedly, some of the older books on the topic of investing are very dry. In this case, it may be helpful to get the audio version.
I've posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Financial Uproar site entitled It's the End of the Investing World As We Know It (and I feel Fine). Juicy Excerpt: We are up against something very big here. When we discovered that it is not the sun that revolves around the earth but the earth that revolves around the sun we started a revolution in science. We tapped into many powerful insights in the years since as a result of that one, simple, fundamental change in our understanding of how the world…
Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.
This book has discussed literally all the basics that are important to really begin making stock trades. With this book, learning is very easy and mastering is guided, not a hustle at all. This book has the necessary information on what trading entails, the differences between primary and secondary trading, and also strategies that can be implemented to be able to start trading right after reading this book. This is very helpful and useful for gaining knowledge about stock trading.
I posted as Guest Blog Entry at the Married (with Debt) blog yesterday. It's called The Buy-and-Hold Myth. Juicy Excerpt: In the used-car market, the price of the car being sold is the result of a battle waged between the car seller and the car buyer. The seller wants a high price. The buyer wants a low one. Each side has to give something or risk seeing the negotiation fall through. The end result of the battle is usually a price that is more or less right. The car-selling market…
It is not a big surprise, however, that many investors today remain interested in the forecasts of financial analysts regardless of their success. Humans in the past consulted oracles, crystal balls and tea leaves. It’s in our nature: As the proverb goes, “tell me a fact, and I'll learn; tell me a truth, and I’ll believe; but tell me a story and it will live in my heart forever.” We are attracted to story-telling, and when it comes to investing we seem to be searching for the most compelling narratives about the unknowable future, regardless of how accurate they turn out to be.
As well as my own insights I am also influenced by a number of oracles from secret India as well as my guru Sathya Sai Baba (There’s more about him on my site if you do a search). What is predicted by what I believe to be reliable oracles (They predicted my personal fortunes correctly too) is that we are on the threshold of a Golden Age. It will come when we collectively raise our consciousness. It is difficult to time because some of this in the realm of our own willingness to become transformed but I believe it will be in the lifetime of many people living on the planet today. You see the Golden Age may not necessarily be just a worldly Utopia – this will be a reflection of a huge leap in conciousness that mankind will make. It has already started. Don’t worry about the world – it will be okay and will go on for many millennia yet. Focus on your own inner immortality and you may discover that the Golden Age – for you at least – is already here!
However, we do life in less-than-traditional times – the effects of the extraordinary monetary policies that the Fed undertook in response to the recession are still working their way though the system, so despite the fact that it’s been almost a decade since the last recession, we quite likely still have room to run. A very wise man once told me that “the bull market [when stocks fairly aggressively go up] doesn’t end when the Fed raises rates, the bull market ends when the Fed STOPS raising rates.” Chairwoman Yellen & Co. have only just begun lifting off the proverbial gas pedal from the Great Recession, and my guess, as well as that of many others, is that we have a ways to go before a full on crash next occurs.
Any backlash won’t come until after NASDANQ is live. The team has been working on the project since August, but Vaisman admits “it’s taking some time.” He says once the NASDANQ website launches (at a to-be-determined date, with a mobile app coming later), the algorithm will probably have to be tweaked several times before it feels accurate. Wink says the ultimate goal is to find “the equation for one meme across every website and every platform.”
I’m less concerned than our friends at the Fed. Businesses are rebelling in mass against Trump’s punitive tariffs on steel, aluminum, and lumber. Trump is still blind to his own economic idiocy as I write. Given the torrent of negative press on tariffs in recent weeks, I suspect that a member or two of his retinue will force him to see the light. They’ll force him sooner than later.
Shadox at the Money and Such blog recently posted a Guest Blog Entry by Schroeder, a regular at John Greaney's Goon Central board. It was called A Critique of Valuation-Informed Indexing. Juicy Excerpt: A few weeks ago I published a guest post by Rob of A Rich Life. In doing so, it appears that I inadvertently stumbled into the middle of a religious war. Schroeder, a critic of Rob's, has asked me to post the critique which follows, and having read it, I thought I would share it with my…
Hi I am glad you said about damaging mother earth as I have been saying to people they can’t keep taking from the ground and blasting as it will mean that things are going to happen like earth quakes as it harming and making things uneven, it is hard for me to put into words what they are doing is going to cause repercussions. I also feel that we all have to look after our own country and our leaders in Australia are letting things happen that are endangering our people and country and by letting in certain people into our country is already back firing on our government as they have let it happen and now the Australian people are seeing and feeling that our government were stupid in the first place even though there was Pauline Hanson speaking out about what she thought should be happening and done that was ignored and she was right all along as it has and is happening. I have also told friends here in Australia not to live near the sea as it is going to happen here and the sea will keep coming in claiming properties and also something else is going to happen and we have seen tsunami in countries like the latest I think was Japan and they are ignoring me thinking it is not going to happen here and already on the coast of Western Australia the see has been claiming properties as the cliffs are being eaten away by the sea, I have said they need to live inland but they pay big prices the live near the ocean and they are going to feel the force of a tsunami and then will they know I was right and not mad in what I have been saying. I can’t say when or where now but it is going to happen and I am curious to see if you are picking anything up on what I have felt about Australia. I also was picking up with Trump was that he was feeling powerful and kept see Abraham Lincoln sitting in this big chair that looked like it was carved out of stone, and I know nothing about Abraham and what he did or stood for other than he was a leader of America. I would love to know what you see for Australia for 2018.
The crash of 1929 involved a total stock market collapse, whereas, during 1987 stocks remained in a bull trend despite the 23% decline. The bursting of the Dot Com bubble in 2000 doesn’t appear very pronounced on the above chart. However, remember it is a chart of the Dow Jones index, which only includes 30 blue-chip companies. If you look at the tech heavy Nasdaq for the same period, you will see a very different picture.
Other than that, just remember that this is a GOOD necessary correction that is happening. “To the moon!!!” euphoria MUST come down and eliminate those who don’t belong in this market. Don’t panic, and start educating yourself on market trends and chart analysis instead of buying and/selling on the whim…. if you want to succeed in this market. We all got affected, but it’s those with the knowledge of understanding that corrections after a mass bull run are necessary, that can sleep better at night 😉.
What we’re looking for is the ‘Venn diagram’ of overlapping dates when we see Uranus hit Scorpio-Taurus at the same degrees – or close by – in the charts of a number of key nations or sharemarkets. What we’re also looking for is another ‘Venn’ overlap of Jupiter (bargains galore – and lucky for some speculators) in Scorpio, also hitting key degrees across Scorpio-Taurus. This is standard astrology.
Jun. 25, 2018 10:37 AM ET| Includes: BA, BF.B, D, DDM, DIA, DOG, DXD, EEH, EPS, EQL, FEX, FWDD, HOG, HUSV, IVV, IWL, IWM, JHML, JKD, OTPIX, PSQ, QID, QLD, QQEW, QQQ, QQQE, QQXT, RSP, RWM, RYARX, RYRSX, SCHX, SDOW, SDS, SFLA, SH, SMLL, SPDN, SPLX, SPUU, SPXE, SPXL, SPXN, SPXS, SPXT, SPXU, SPXV, SPY, SQQQ, SRTY, SSO, SYE, T, TNA, TQQQ, TU, TWM, TZA, UDOW, UDPIX, UPRO, URTY, UWM, VFINX, VOO, VTWO, VV, WHR, X
I recently wrote a Guest Blog Entry for the Weakonomics blog entitled The Bankers Did Not Do This to Us! Juicy Excerpt: Did they stick all the money in suitcases and catch a plane to another time zone? Some good comments. Juicy Excerpt: I’m getting more and more tired of people shoving blame back and forth. I frankly, could care less whose fault it is. I’d rather spend time trying to find the best solution…
Le fonds New Canada de Mawer génère un rendement moyen annualisé net de 11.25% depuis 10 ans contre 1,16% pour l’indice de référence. Ce fonds affiche un rendement moyen net de 13,6% depuis sa création en 1988 (frais de gestion: 1,35%). Si vous patientez pendant 30 ans, vous seriez plus riche aujourd’hui (malheureusement ce fonds est fermé aux investisseurs).
My main predictions in this area made in 2016 for 2017 was that North Korea would become the focus of world attention and conflict. My main prediction about this last year said: “Kim Jong-un will be fall from power later in the year – maybe December 2017 or January 2018” I know it looks like we are on the brink of war but my feeling is that he will be deposed by his own people. This remains part of my predictions for the time ahead. I also spoke of an arms race happening in the Far East and provocation from China forcing Japan to initiate an arms race. We saw provocations from China so this prediction is still on the cards. I also predicted a “serious threat of escalating conflict between China and India” – which has happened.
Statistically, major market corrections occur about once every decade, so the probability is better than even, less than unity. Personally I’ll be watching 2019 which will be the year following the consequences of the tax cuts. By then, the tax cuts will have been price in and should not longer be a factor. I suspect that 2018 will be a year of watching and seeing how much earnings actually go with the tax cut; markets are always ‘forward-looking.’ They react not to earnings, but the promise of future earnings. Right now 2018 looks like the “Buy on the rumor” side of the equation, and that 2019 might be the “sell on the news” side.