“Across assets, these projections look tame relative to what the GFC delivered and probably unalarming relative to the recession/crisis averages” of the past, JPMorgan strategists John Normand and Federico Manicardi wrote, noting that during the recession and ensuing global financial crisis the S&P 500 fell 54 percent from its peak. “We would nudge them all at least to their historical norms due to the wildcard from structurally less-liquid markets.”
Juicy Excerpt: If prices can be wildly wrong in the short term but must be roughly right in the long term, it should be possible to know in advance which way prices are headed (in the long term only, not in the short term) just by knowing the valuation level you are starting from. Researchers have checked the historical data. This explanation, unlike the EMT-based one, stands up to scrutiny.
Les théoriciens de l’efficience ont bien tenté d’en faire une « anomalie » quelconque, l’exception unique qui confirmerait la règle. J’ai bien peur qu’ils se soient mis les deux doigts dans l’oeil… Il n’est pas tout à fait tout seul dans son genre non plus, ils ont été au moins une bonne quinzaine dans la seconde moitié du 20e siècle et au début du 21e pour ceux d’entre eux qui sont encore vivants. lls ont même formé un club à un moment donné, ils se réunissaient chaque année.
Le fonds Fidelity Special Situations est composé de 54% d’actions canadiennes et 40% d’actions américaines de petites et moyennes capitalisations (petites et moyennes entreprises qui versent généralement peu de dividendes ou aucun). À mon avis, c’est risqué compte tenu de votre âge. Il faudrait constituer un portefeuille équilibré contenant 40-50% d’actions et 50-60% d’obligations. Le rendement réaliste et prudent à long terme est 5%. Souvenez-vous de la règle de Buffett : ne pas perdre votre capital. Le fonds Fidelity Special Situations pourrait être approprié pour un investisseur qui a un horizon de placement à long terme (plus de 10 ans).
There are several basic strategies for using astrology with stock market investing. The first, and most important is obtain the first trade data of a stock, ETF, currency, etc. and cast a horoscope for that time and place. Over time, this chart can then be analyzed with respect to transits, progressions, and dashas in order to ascertain the likely price movements of the stock.
The rising share prices encouraged more people to invest, hoping the share prices would rise further. Speculation thus fueled further rises and created an economic bubble. Because of margin buying, investors stood to lose large sums of money if the market turned down—or even failed to advance quickly enough. The average P/E (price to earnings) ratio of S&P Composite stocks was 32.6 in September 1929, clearly above historical norms. According to economist John Kenneth Galbraith, this exuberance also resulted in a large number of people placing their savings and money in leverage investment products like Goldman Sachs' "Blue Ridge trust" and "Shenandoah trust". These too crashed in 1929, resulting in losses to banks of $475 billion 2010 dollars ($533.06 billion in 2017).
Vous pouvez également gérer votre portefeuille de façon plus active, c’est-à-dire choisir individuellement les titres boursiers qui le constituent. C’est d’ailleurs ce que je pratique depuis plusieurs années. Je me base sur les données présentées dans le périodique Investment Reporter, disponible gratuitement à la bibliothèque. Puis, je place mes épargnes dans 20-30 actions réparties dans différents secteurs d’activités et différentes zones géographiques. Je ne crois pas avoir battu le marché à long terme, mais ça m’amuse! 😉
Stocks are categorized in various ways. One way is by the country where the company is domiciled. For example, Nestlé and Novartis are domiciled in Switzerland, so they may be considered as part of the Swiss stock market, although their stock may also be traded on exchanges in other countries, for example, as American depository receipts (ADRs) on U.S. stock markets.
Jesazzzz Koverist. This means that post calapse, the city air will be unbreathable from all the garbage, rotting and decaying stinking dead bodies all over all the major cities, meaning that, the DUMB-F…k survivors, these are the New Preppers, who were not preppers, who jus scavenged, tore up the restaurants, fast food joints, distribution centers, possible white, middle class, people who laughed at us prepper types, who went, damn, lets get all the food and water now, we are clearing the f…k out of town to the country. Now we can see if we awesome preppers who were able to GTFOT, GET THE F… OUT OF TOWN TYPES. then we preppers can see literally, get this millions, 50,000,000 plus, fleeing the cities, jamed up on the freeways with Jade Helm 15, russian and chinses soldiers at check points grabbing people, shooting the men point blank range and grabbing women and children off the freeways, gun ships and drones all the sky, tanks, and other military equipment suddenly rolled out on the streets of all the major cities shooting the men on all the major freeways in all the major cities. Trapped Patriots, veterans and Local Red Necks and new Freedom fighters of all races, black, white, hispanic, asain and other unreconizable nationals that we dont or cant tell wtf? there are, now engaged in gun battles against one another. The kind of situation, that even tough guys like myself litterally loose bladder control, and piss my pants at the mere taught of it. As we literally witness the first stage of calapse.
Likewise, stock prices have defeated all forecasting efforts, and may well belong to the same set of basic unpredictability. While occasionally somebody may seem to be on the right side of an investment ahead of a big move, this is a far cry from actually forecasting such move with any kind of precision in terms of timing and size. For each “hunch” that is successful, a myriad others fail. Despite anecdotes, there seems to be no clear evidence that investors who get a big move “right” are anything but lucky.
By the way, our own Dr Doom, Professor Steve Keen, was also hailed as a good predictor of the GFC. Then at the University of Western Sydney, Keen received more than twice as many votes as his nearest rival and was judged the economist who first and most cogently warned the world of the coming Global Financial Collapse. He (and 2nd and 3rd place finishers, Nouriel Roubini (New York University) and Dean Baker (Centre for Economic and Policy Research), won the inaugural Revere Award for Economics, named in honour of Paul Revere and his famous ride through the night to warn Americans of the approaching British army.
Several universities have moved to put some of their curriculum online for free. MIT’s OpenCourseWare program has lecture notes available from an investment course originally taught in 2003, but the bones are still sound. Open Yale has courses available on economic and financial topics. Stanford’s self-study courses list can be searched by topic. Note that you won’t receive college credit for taking these courses online.
Thank you so much for the detailed reply. Yes, strangely enough identity and security systems software are part of my job! Also, financial freedom is indeed shaping up to be a major focus. I am prepared to deal with change and unknowns over the next few years. Do you have any further thoughts on how to deal with that tricky Uranus opposing Uranus? It sounds worrying. My recent Saturn return was very tough and challenging, and I hope it won’t be anything like that. Thanks again.
Jones is widely credited with predicting, and profiting, from the stock-market crash on Oct. 19, 1987, which saw the Dow lose nearly 23% of its value, marking the largest one-day percentage decline for the blue-chip benchmark in its history. Jones founded Tudor in 1980 and became known for trading everything from currencies to commodities. His record has featured middling returns and an exodus of billions from his hedge fund in more recent years. According to a Forbes list of billionaires, Jones boasts a net worth of $4.7 billion
You’ll feel it now, in a small but important way. Essentially anyone who has factors in Taurus in her Second House of shopping, possessions, income, rent, investments, shares, business, taxation – has the habits of a lifetime to question. For example you may have habitually been a shopaholic who ends up with too much stuff and gives it to charity. That’s going to change. Why? All kinds of reasons. Maybe you are feeling it right now. Or – if you are habitually geared to have low expectations around money, never really anticipating that you’ll be much richer – May and June may alter your thinking on that.
Now, me…. I’m doing meditation, clearing debts, and planning to just see what happens and not much options due to illness but in any case – I’ve got Jupiter Taurus natal at 20 and Scorpio sun at 24. I just don’t dare hope but thought I’d ask what you think? I’m zen about life so don’t sugarcoat, if you have time and I’m not too late to this. Wishing you the best! Thanks Jessica
I recently posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Budgets Are Sexy blog entitled When Stock Prices Crash, Where Does the Money Go? Juicy Excerpt: We can bid stock prices up to any level we want. We can all vote ourselves raises if we like. The only penalty is that, when we bid them up too high, they must crash back down in the following years. What is made from nothing must eventually return to nothing. It always happens that way. It always will happen that way. Now you know. Lotsa good…
I have recently started reading the first Nostradamus book by Dolores Cannon. Cannon was a hypnotherapist who transgressed her research subjects into a somnambulism if trance. This is the state in which all people become clairvoyant and have access to past lives, history and lost knowledge. With some of Cannon’s subjects, Nostradamus came through and gave detailed explanations about the meaning of his quatrains.
You were born with Aesculapia at 2 Cancer in your Fourth House of property, houses and apartments. Psyche at 1 Taurus in your Second House of banks, assets and debts. The North Node at 0 Sagittarius in your Ninth House of foreign faces and places. The South Node at 0 Gemini in your Third House of internet and negotiation. Put all that together and you have quite a story about home as an investment, home as a financial obligation, but also home as ‘home’ in the real sense of the word. When Uranus moves into Taurus in May 2018 and slowly passes 0, 1, 2 Taurus you will be directly affected by a global economic revolution, and in your own country, radical changes affecting everything from pensions to property prices. Aesculapia is about something/someone which comes back from the brink. Often this is a house or apartment you have given up on, which you either renovate back to life – or perhaps a property comes back on the market. Then we have the Gemini-Sagittarius question about foreign faces and places and the internet plays its part there too. I suspect this is about a substantial asset, as Psyche is about what lives on after you have gone, and she is in Taurus – all that you earn, own or owe. At the very heart of this cycle are your values. What you will and will not sell your soul for. Who or what you consider to be priceless. You are going to be asked to look at that very, very deeply and make a new life budget. Uranus in Taurus 15/05/2018 to 05/11/2018 starts the cycle, then it picks up again after a break during the re-entry of Uranus in Taurus 06/03/2019 – we then see this cycle extending to 06/07/2025 but you will feel it most powerfully in May, June 2018 and at the start of 2019. Bitcoin will have a massive impact on the world then and the ripples will reach you.
I have felt for a long time that the UK will leave the E.U. though still have some close economic and legal connections. I also feel that France will eventually leave and what is left will be a group of countries led and dominated by Germany. I predict that the E.U. will still be a trading community for much of Europe including Turkey and will include the UK but it will be something closer to the Common Market that the British people voted to join back in the 70’s.
Je me suis récemment lancé dans le courtage en ligne avec l’intention de ne pas me casser la tête mais je me retrouve bien embêté parce qu’il y a plusieurs FNB ; certains suivent le marché américain, d’autres suivent le marché canadien, certains doublent un certain marché, etc. Bref, je me demandais s,il existait une ressource qui fait état des différents FNB disponibles et de leurs caractéristiques. Je connais Vanguard mais quand je vais sur leur site internet, je me sens comme quand je lis un livre en cantonnais, c’est plutôt rébarbatif. Y aurait-il un blogueur ou un site internet qui vulgariserait les différentes caractéristiques des FNB?
Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for an article on Valuation-Informed Indexing appearing at the Invest It Wisely site: Look at the orange line at the bottom of Fig. 6: it follows the stock line (in black) most of the time, this is just plain buy-and-hold as long as valuations are sane. This strategy is closer to buy-and-hold than to, say, day-trading or stock picking. I certainly agree that the strategy you suggest (I call it…
The P/E ratio of the S&P-500 is over 25, something that has only happened three times in history, once during the 1890s, once somewhat before 2000, and once somewhat after 2000. Can’t recall what the big crises was in the 1890s, but in 2001 or so the NASDAQ collapsed, losing about 75% of its value. It has only recently, in unadjusted dollars, surpassed its pre-crash highs.