It is important to secure a portion of your portfolio even if it lowers your return. Review and readjust your investments. Prepare to deal with when the bull market ends. One way to do it is by shifting your investments away from the risky investments to companies with high financial quality ratings proven by their financial statements. It is likely that these companies will lose less than the market in times of a market crash.
I have also had a similar dream. I dreamed about 2 yrs ago that Chengde in China was hit with a massive quake. I was in Chengde and they had just finished building a new shopping complex, as well as apartments. All of the buildings were white and it was really beautiful. I was standing at the back of a building when this massive quake struck. This massive wave came thundering in and the tsunami was so big that it literally flattened the entire complex like a rolling pin. I remember lifting of the ground and was floating up above watching this when it happened. I heard the people that survived it say that was a 9.5 quake is anyone else alive?
No expert prediction or technical indicator is necessary. The makings of the next crash are already clear. Whether it’s Janet Yellen or Jerome Powell who will head the Federal Reserve after February 2018, interest rates can only move higher. At the current rate of debt, even 100 basis points (one percent) higher interest will mean $200.0 billion in additional (not all, mind you, just the extra bit) in debt.
This is the one that's probably freshest in the minds of most people reading this, so I'll just give you a quick background. Easy credit and soaring real estate values led to rampant real estate speculation by people who, quite frankly, had no business speculating in real estate. The mortgage loans used, which in many cases were made for even more than the inflated values of the underlying homes, were packaged and sold to institutions as "investment grade" securities.
"While it's difficult to pinpoint what type of trader would enjoy this book the most, I think there's something for everyone, whether you're a quaint, technical trader or a fundamentalist. . . . I feel that I'm smarter after finishing this book; I thoroughly enjoyed the lengthy journey, and would recommend this to any stock market enthusiast."---Jeff Pierce, Seeking Alpha
I just wonder if the revolutions in countries in the Middle East could bring them closer to Russia and Putin the Antichrist. Perhaps this will lead to the Middle East War described in Ezekiel and also Revelation 16 as Armageddon, that it could be an alliance of Middle East and North Africa countries that will form a military alliance with Russia led by the Antichrist Putin. What Middle Eastern countries will next see revolution? Where will these revolutions lead? It could work out well, with peaceful democracies in these countries. On the other hand, the French Revolution resulted in a bloodbath in France, and a monstrous dictator Napoleon who resulted in war across Europe. And the Russian Revolution resulted in the Soviet Union, and millions murdered by Stalin. So revolutions can work out well like the American Revolution did, but sometimes they don't. War in the Middle East could result from these changes, the Second Horseman of the Apocalypse War riding in 2018-2019. And if political unrest comes to Pakistan, with all its nuclear weapons, that could be a major concern. Also watch out for: North Korea attacking South Korea, or war in the Middle East.
Of course your sister works in a bank – Mars in Taurus is suited to that. Uranus will not cross her Mars completely until 2019 so she has time, but essentially everything from climate change, to new banks, to new government rules, to devaluation of currency (and of course cryptocurrency) is going to sweep her world, very quickly. She can make this work for her but she’s going to have to be in the first wave.
Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: “My fantasyland comes with a Nobel prize. Yours comes with death threats” etc etc. No, those are both your fantasies. That’s really the heart of the problem, isn’t it? Everything you write is fantasy. You used to toss in a bit of reality every once in a while. Back when people actually sent you emails. But those days are long gone. Your post-Wade psychotic break changed everything. The bottom line is that the Buy-and-Hold retirement studies have not been corrected to this day. I pointed out in my famous post from the morning of May 13, 2002, that the Greaney study lacks an adjustment for the valuation level that applies on the day the retirement begins. All of the words that have been spilled over the following 16 years show that I was right. Thousands of people have looked at the Greaney study during that time. Not one has been able to identify a valuation adjustment. A failed retirement is a serious life setback. Greaney should have corrected his study within 24 hours of the moment when he learned of the error he made in it. Now — The backstory is that Greaney’s retirement study would be perfect in a world in which the market was efficient, which is the world that Bogle thought we lived in at the time when he developed the Buy-and-Hold strategy. The idea that the market is efficient was born in 1965, when Fama published research showing that short-time timing doesn’t work. Lots of good and smart people jumped to the conclusion that no form of timing works. Shiller showed in 1981 that this conclusion was a false one. He showed that long-term timing (price discipline) always works and is always required for investors seeking to keep their risk profile roughly constant over time. Shiller has described the intellectual leap from the finding that short-term price changes are unpredictable to the Buy-and-Hold conclusion that the market sets prices properly as “one of the most remarkable errors in the history of economics.” That’s the core dispute. Buy-and-Hold is rooted in error, the error was revealed by the peer-reviewed research in this field 37 years ago, and now that the error has been covered up for 37 years, the Buy-and-Holders are very, very, […]
This event demonstrated that share prices can fall dramatically even though no generally agreed upon definite cause has been found: a thorough search failed to detect any 'reasonable' development that might have accounted for the crash. (Note that such events are predicted to occur strictly by chance, although very rarely.) It seems also to be the case more generally that many price movements (beyond that which are predicted to occur 'randomly') are not occasioned by new information; a study of the fifty largest one-day share price movements in the United States in the post-war period seems to confirm this.
Economic troubles are caused by the energy of greed. The law of karma means that this will set up a situation that will fly back to us like a cosmic boomerang. We cannot stop the greed of the few fat cats and ruling elite who cream off the best for themselves but in our own lives, we can try to live more simply. If we cease craving the fruits of our actions we actually attract prosperity and happened into our lives. Giving and forgiving really does work.
Pour ce qui est des FNB, j’ai un peu la même résistance que vous. Je suis convaincu qu’il s’agit de la meilleure façon passive d’investir à long-terme, certes j’ai parfois l’impression de passer à côté d’opportunités quand je me restraint à ces fonds. Par exemple, suite à la correction qu’on vient de subir, je constate certaines « aubaines » dans le marché. Toutefois, je garde le cap et je vise la passivité (lire la paresse). 😉
"American business will do fine over time. And stocks will do well just as certainly, since their fate is tied to business performance. Periodic setbacks will occur, yes, but investors and managers are in a game that is heavily stacked in their favor. (The Dow Jones Industrials advanced from 66 to 11,497 in the 20th Century, a staggering 17,320% increase that materialized despite four costly wars, a Great Depression and many recessions. And don't forget that shareholders received substantial dividends throughout the century as well.)"
All figures below are for the Tesco's financial years, which run for 52- or 53-week periods to late February. Up to 27 February 2007 period end the numbers include non-UK and Ireland results for the year ended on 31 December 2006 in the accounting year. The figures in the table below include 52 weeks/12 months of turnover for both sides of the business as this provides the best comparative.
Set forth below is the text of a post that I recently put to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: “Please tell me the downside, Anonymous.” We can’t all live in Rob’s fantasyland. We have to live in reality. My fantasyland comes with a Nobel prize. Yours comes with death threats and demands for unjustified board bannings and thousands of acts of defamation and threats to get academic researchers fired from their jobs. Reason vs. Emotion. My best. Fantasyland Rob Related PostsGoon Poster to Rob: “You Have Stated What You Think Are Problems. People Have Responded As to How They Disagree. People Eventually Got Angry Because of Repetitive Comments Going in Circles.”“Set Up a Debate at the Bogleheads Forum. We’ll Make History.”Buy-and-Hold Goon to Rob: “I Have Not Seen One Single Scared Person, Except for You. You Are So Scared, You Have to Make Up Stories About Pretend Death Threats, Job Threats, Fraud and Prison.”“Part of the Job is to Describe the Pressures that Caused so Many Generally Good and Smart People Either to Participate in the Cover-Up or at the Minimum Tolerate It. I Post These Goon Conversation Blog Entries to Help People Come to a Full Understanding of What Happened.”Buy-and-Hold Goon to Rob: “I and Many Others Are Confident in Buy–Hold-and-Rebalance. You Seem to Be the Only One Confident in Valuation-Informed Indexing.”“Me Being Wrong Doesn’t Explain What We Have Seen. The Buy-and-Holders Lack Confidence in Their Own Strategy. That’s Why We See All This Strange Behavior. We Have an Emotional Time Bomb Out There.”
I recently wrote a Guest Blog Entry for the "Money and Such" blog entitled Passive Investing Is a Strategy for Extremists. Juicy Excerpt: The word “passive” sounds neutral. It sounds moderate. I don’t think the investing philosophy is that at all. The investing philosophy argues for taking no action whatsoever when the risk of holding stocks increases dramatically. This is the blog entry that was viewed by the owner of the "Lazy Man and Money" blog as "too hot to…
However, if China’s economy falters it might. Geopolitical turmoil concerning North Korea, Iran, Syria or Russia could also become a catalyst if things escalate enough. It’s most likely that the next market crash, whenever it occurs, will be the result of a perfect storm caused by several factors. But, since it’s not something anyone can predict, it’s best to concentrate on being prepared for a crash whenever it may occur.
Allo, je vend toutes mes positions a chaque fois que je trouve que le profits sont in téressants , préférablement a chaque jour et je dors en paix 100 % en cash. »bull or bear i do not care ! » il y a des etfs bull and bear et ce que ce soit pour l’or, le pétrole, le sp500, nasdaq, dow jones etc. J’ai juste besoin d’une tendance et je surfe la vague aussi peu de temps que possible, je prends l’argent et je me sauve.
Preparation is key. The best time to react to any potential market crash is before it occurs. Not after. Reacting in the moment can lead to expensive and costly mistakes. For example, if you saw that socks were on sale, you'd be more interested in buying socks. However, when it comes to stocks, people take a different view. When stocks are on sale, as can occur in a market crash, then often investors' instincts are to run away. Thinking about your strategy ahead of time and writing it down, just in a couple of paragraphs, can be key. Then if the markets do crash, make sure to look at that document before you act.
Jai un peu peur par rapport au courtage en ligne rendu au moment de la retraite, si on a toutes nos économies dans des FNB par exemple… est ce que on peut tout simplement vendre le tout en une transaction et transférer ailleurs ou si vous faites simplement des retraits occasionnels en vendant peu a peu les parts. Car dans mon cas, avec questrade,( jutilise la stratégie de canadian couch potato entre autres) l achat de fnb est gratuit mais la vente est de 4.95 min(1 cents par action) et 9.95 max par transaction . Ce qui pourrait couter cher si on fait des retraits plusieurs fois dans l’année.
Many factors likely contributed to the collapse of the stock market. Among the more prominent causes were the period of rampant speculation (those who had bought stocks on margin not only lost the value of their investment, they also owed money to the entities that had granted the loans for the stock purchases), tightening of credit by the Federal Reserve (in August 1929 the discount rate was raised from 5 percent to 6 percent), the proliferation of holding companies and investment trusts (which tended to create debt), a multitude of large bank loans that could not be liquidated, and an economic recession that had begun earlier in the summer.
The mid-1980s were a time of strong economic optimism. From August 1982 to its peak in August 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) grew from 776 to 2722. The rise in market indices for the 19 largest markets in the world averaged 296 percent during this period. The average number of shares traded on the NYSE(New York Stock Exchange) had risen from 65 million shares to 181 million shares.
The TV reveals change-over period from present Kali- to coming Sat-yuga as 17th-29th centuries and that this would be brought about via 12000 spiritually evolved personages [in past eras] who would appear one by one in all parts of the world. They would somehow connect with augmenting spiritual truths of TV and get enlightened. Their testimonies will be heard with respect. In brief they will become instruments of God to bring about end of Kali-yuga much, much ahead of its tenure of 432,000 years – meaning only before the end of 6000 years from the time Shri Krishna departed for his divine abode!
La première étape est primordiale. Il s’agit d’évaluer votre situation personnelle pour définir votre profil d’investisseur. En théorie, plus vous êtes jeune, plus vous pouvez vous permettre d’être audacieux. Vos objectifs de vie ainsi que votre tolérance au risque jouent aussi un rôle important dans vos choix d’investissements. Voici les questions auxquelles vous devrez répondre pour établir votre profil:
Thank you. Fortuna at 0 Scorpio in your chart will be opposed by Uranus at 0 Taurus from May 2018 with a repeat in early 2019. That is the moment to realise there are no ‘givens’ with money or property sometimes and you just have to adapt and adjust. The right attitude will be ‘that was then, this is now’ and to move quickly with the times, as the old way of banking, borrowing money and looking at credit will no longer apply. Try to embrace the randomness for the time that it is there. Your husband will have a lump sum to enjoy this year.
It’s not going to create 4% [GDP] growth. Business might feel good for a couple of quarters, but there isn’t anything to build on. You can give companies a trillion dollars, but what are they going to do with it? Just buy back stock and pay dividends to their shareholders. They don’t need to expand. We’ve got excess supply here and around the world. We don’t need businesses to invest in a lot of new capacity. We already did that in the boom.
The other manifestation of Pluto going over the first house is the exposure of corruption, scandals, abuse of power and scams that could hamper investment in the market out of fear. We’ve started seeing this with the most recent news of the ex-head of NASDAQ taking rich investors for an estimated 50 billion dollars. Pluto will uncover more of this sort of thing, it may or may not lead to another crash, but it will definitely transform the way the markets are ultimately allowed to do business.
Many astrologers like to characterize their method of reading a horoscope as "holistic", in an effort to escape criticisms from mechanistically-oriented skeptics. I prefer to think of chart analysis in terms of Boolean logic, where multiple factors must be present for a particular situation to occur. For example, we cannot expect stocks to inevitably rise when benefic Jupiter conjoins the natal Sun of the chart we are working with. Such a favourable pattern may be thought of as a necessary, but not sufficient condition for price increases. There must also be an absence of negative factors hitting the key chart points. These would include few close aspects from malefic planets, no planets transiting malefic houses (6th, 8th, 12th) and so on. Given the large number of variables every chart contains, there will be several significant operating planetary contacts and influences at any given time. These must all be evaluated for their relative effects of prices according to the principles of Boolean analysis. If we are trying to assess if the conditions are in place for a bull market, for example, we could construct a table that more clearly reflects this logical process.
It’s not clear how much money Weingarten has made for his clients. At its peak, he says, the Astrologers Fund managed “under $25 million” for “under 10” clients. Some years, he says, the fund returned 100 percent; some years, “less.” A few years ago he stopped accepting new investors and began managing his own money exclusively. On a page labeled Disclaimer on his outmoded, space-themed website (“done in 2000 by a friend of mine who did porn websites”), he lists payments over the years from consulting clients, including natural resources companies, penny stocks, and—inevitably—a cryptocurrency startup.
The common stock of a company represents your share of the ownership in that company. Common stock holders are legally the owner of a small portion of the earnings and assets of the company. You also get to cast your votes at annual meetings and are eligible for dividends paid by the company. So if you own a share of Starbucks, you are part-owner of the local shop down the street. Because stock ownership in a corporation is a legal construct, it works best in countries where the rule of law is strong. This is why the U.S. is such a popular place to invest.
No definitive conclusions have been reached on the reasons behind the 1987 Crash. Stocks had been in a multi-year bull run and market P/E ratios in the U.S. were above the post-war average. The S&P 500 was trading at 23 times earnings, a postwar high and well above the average of 14.5 times earnings. Herd behavior and psychological feedback loops play a critical part in all stock market crashes but analysts have also tried to look for external triggering events. Aside from the general worries of stock market overvaluation, blame for the collapse has been apportioned to such factors as program trading, portfolio insurance and derivatives, and prior news of worsening economic indicators (i.e. a large U.S. merchandise trade deficit and a falling U.S. dollar, which seemed to imply future interest rate hikes).
In 2007, Warren Buffett bet hedge fund manager Ted Seides $1 million for charity that a fund indexed to the S&P 500 would beat five of Seides’s favorite hedge funds over 10 years. The S&P returned 7.1 percent annually; the five funds returned 2.2 percent. Buffett didn’t just win the bet, he won an argument about investing. Professional money managers look for patterns in the markets or divine signs on a balance sheet. Sometimes their systems work well for a while. But time, or Cronus, grinds most of them down, and few beat the S&P in the long run.
Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently put to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site: And you want us to wait, even if it takes 73 to 86 years more for it to play out, right? I’ve asked myself that question, how long would I wait? Shiller predicted in 1996 that those going with high stock allocations would regret it within 10 years. That would have been 2006. We are now 12 years past that. This is the longest that we have ever gone with stocks at crazy high prices and not seen them crash (they crashed in 2008 but prices went back up after the passage of only a few months, so that crash didn’t turn out to be terribly consequential). Does there come a point when you just say “this has continued for so long that it just doesn’t make sense to continue to expect a crash?” The long wait is a point against Valuation-Informed Indexing, in my assessment. I can see someone saying “if stock prices had just recently risen to crazy high prices, I would listen to Shiller and Bennett and lower my stock allocation but this has gone on so long that I feel that they are like the boys who cried wolf, I just do not have confidence that what they are saying will happen will actually take place.”I don’t agree with that view. But I don’t see that view as being entirely unreasonable. So I don’t say that someone who concludes that “it has taken too long for prices to crash” and therefore rejects Valuation-Informed Indexing is crazy. The problem that I have with that view is that we all need to invest our money. If you are considering making a bet on the World Series but you can’t figure out whether the Red Sox or the Dodgers are the better baseball team, you can just elect not to place a bet either way. You can opt out of the choice. You can’t do that as an investor. You can’t say “Valuation-Informed Indexing beats Buy-and-Hold for about 10 different reasons but I am concerned about how long it has taken for the crash to arrive so I am just going to opt out of making a decision re how to invest my money because I don’t want to get it wrong.” You’ve got the […]
I've posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Invest It Wisely site titled Stocks Are Far More Risky When Valuations Are High. Juicy Excerpt: My interpretation of these numbers is that stocks are a less risky asset class than most believe. So long as you limit yourself to buying stocks only at moderate or better prices and commit to a 10-year holding period, you are virtually guaranteed to at least break even. That’s a very good deal, given the upside potential that applies when stocks are…
Memes, Recess, and Stock Market: A Short History Lesson 1928 Republicans take control of the Presidency, the House and the Senate. Followed shortly by the Great Depression, massive unemployment and a Stock Market crash. 2000 Republicans take control of the Presidency, the House and the Senate. Followed shortly by two recessions including the Great Recession, massive unemployment and a Stock Market crash. 2016 Republicans take control of the Presidency, the House and the Senate. Anyone want to guess what happens next? Real Truth Vow This will NOT end well.
Stock market participation refers to the number of agents who buy and sell equity backed securities either directly or indirectly in a financial exchange. Participants are generally subdivided into three distinct sectors; households, institutions, and foreign traders. Direct participation occurs when any of the above entities buys or sells securities on its own behalf on an exchange. Indirect participation occurs when an institutional investor exchanges a stock on behalf of an individual or household. Indirect investment occurs in the form of pooled investment accounts, retirement accounts, and other managed financial accounts.
There are several basic strategies for using astrology with stock market investing. The first, and most important is obtain the first trade data of a stock, ETF, currency, etc. and cast a horoscope for that time and place. Over time, this chart can then be analyzed with respect to transits, progressions, and dashas in order to ascertain the likely price movements of the stock.
A 'soft' EMH has emerged which does not require that prices remain at or near equilibrium, but only that market participants not be able to systematically profit from any momentary market 'inefficiencies'. Moreover, while EMH predicts that all price movement (in the absence of change in fundamental information) is random (i.e., non-trending), many studies have shown a marked tendency for the stock market to trend over time periods of weeks or longer. Various explanations for such large and apparently non-random price movements have been promulgated. For instance, some research has shown that changes in estimated risk, and the use of certain strategies, such as stop-loss limits and value at risk limits, theoretically could cause financial markets to overreact. But the best explanation seems to be that the distribution of stock market prices is non-Gaussian (in which case EMH, in any of its current forms, would not be strictly applicable).
However, none were right at the 74% threshold which makes market timing profitable. Remember, being right 66% of the time isn’t going to be as profitable as staying invested for three reasons. One, you will need to hold money in cash when you think a crash is coming. Two, when you are sometimes wrong (the 33%+ of the time) you are missing out on good gains from those days when markets soar. Three, you will be accumulating costs, including trading costs and tax from selling.
It’s not over. The worst October stock market crash since 2008 got even worse on Friday. The Dow was down another 296 points, the S&P 500 briefly dipped into correction territory, and it was another bloodbath for tech stocks. On Wednesday, I warned that there would be a bounce, and we saw that happen on Thursday. But the bounce didn’t extend into Friday. Instead, we witnessed another wave of panic selling, and that has many investors extremely concerned about what will happen next week. Overall, global stocks have now fallen for five weeks in a row, and during that time more than 8 trillion dollars in global wealth has been wiped out. That is the fastest plunge in global stock market wealth since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and it is yet another confirmation that a major turning point has arrived.
Ce que vous espérez de vos investissements a bien sûr une incidence dans votre prise de risque. À titre d’exemple, si vous voulez réduire votre horaire de travail, il vous faudra miser sur des placements sûrs qui vous offrent un rendement plus modeste, mais régulier (ex : dividendes). Donc, le niveau de risque sera plus modéré. Or, si vous êtes jeune et que vous voulez vous bâtir un « fond de liberté », vous pouvez vous permettre de viser la croissance rapide en assumant plus de risques.
Can I guarantee this approach will lead to the best results over the long-term? Of course not. But at least you'll be following a disciplined rational strategy rather than engaging in a never-ending guessing game of trying to decide when to get out of the market (and where to put your money once you do) and then trying to figure out when to get back in. That's a game you can't consistently win.
Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for an article on Valuation-Informed Indexing appearing at the Invest It Wisely site: Look at the orange line at the bottom of Fig. 6: it follows the stock line (in black) most of the time, this is just plain buy-and-hold as long as valuations are sane. This strategy is closer to buy-and-hold than to, say, day-trading or stock picking. I certainly agree that the strategy you suggest (I call it…
In this site Revelation13.net, my method of prophecy combines Astrology and other New Age Schools, mythology, religion, the prophecies of Nostradamus, Bible Code in the King James Bible, Bible prophecy, and numerical analysis. In particular, the Book of Revelation of the King James Bible is discussed. This web site is huge, you can spend days reading it. The emphasis of this web site is on predicting the future for years 2018 - 2020. There could be ominous events possibly occurring in 2018 - 2019: quakes, volcanoes, Ebola, Zika, Bird Flu or SARS epidemic, and wars. This is a new holistic method of prophecy I have developed. Also on this web site are videos on Psychokinesis, where I demonstrate using Psychic Energy to control the weather, clouds and wind, by psychic ESP mind over matter power, telekinesis, making clouds grow or disappear and controlling the wind.
Seventh, US and global equity markets are frothy. Price-to-earnings ratios in the US are 50% above the historic average, private-equity valuations have become excessive, and government bonds are too expensive, given their low yields and negative term premia. And high-yield credit is also becoming increasingly expensive now that the US corporate-leverage rate has reached historic highs.