Thanks to the Fed’s ZIRP, public pension funds cannot get safe 5% returns as they did in the past. Thus, public pension funds are being lured into investing in the stock market by the big financial firms. The stock market may very well crash soon, which means that millions of retired people are going to see their benefits being cut in the coming years.
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Jacob at the My Personal Finance Journey blog has posted a blog entry tiled Valuation-Informed Indexing vs. Passive Investing: Which Is Better? Juicy Excerpt #1: While Valuation-Informed Index Investing may have outperformed passive investing in most previous historical periods, evidence of it not performing as well in recent years is enough to keep me as a passive investor, at least until VII is refined. Juicy Excerpt #2: Valuation-Informed Index Investing has great potential because it…
This event demonstrated that share prices can fall dramatically even though no generally agreed upon definite cause has been found: a thorough search failed to detect any 'reasonable' development that might have accounted for the crash. (Note that such events are predicted to occur strictly by chance, although very rarely.) It seems also to be the case more generally that many price movements (beyond that which are predicted to occur 'randomly') are not occasioned by new information; a study of the fifty largest one-day share price movements in the United States in the post-war period seems to confirm this.
The following day, Black Tuesday, was a day of chaos. Forced to liquidate their stocks because of margin calls, overextended investors flooded the exchange with sell orders. The Dow fell 30.57 points to close at 230.07 on that day. The glamour stocks of the age saw their values plummet. Across the two days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 23%.
January 28, 2016: Thirty years ago today, the Challenger space shuttle exploded with seven aboard. We wrote in our CP newsletter of Dec. 31 1985: "Mars - Pluto- North Node conjunction on Christmas day foreshadowed the terrorism of the holiday period as well as the sharp market decline into that configuration... There will be additional exacerbation at the Full Moon (Jan. 28) as it squares Pluto (ruler of Debt and Terrorism). READ MORE
The planet of abundance, Jupiter, will aspect the conjunction of Sun & Venus on 14th. Over-supply will cheer the Bears, as decrease in demand in the stocks of textiles, cotton, fruits, FMCG, bullions will be noticed. Mercury will move Direct from 15th and will give the Bulls a reasons to feel happy. Banking stocks, Insurance companies, FMCG, Capital goods will rise, after showing small dips in the prices. Rising influence and increased market share of the MNCs will result in reduction of the local business. Overall, annual sales of Rubber, Silver, luxury goods, Zinc and Cotton sector companies may see decline. Third week of the month will see buying interest by the optimistic traders. Saturn is getting retrograde in Sagittarius on 18th. Due to International political games, artificial shortage in crude will be observed. The rates of Oil (BPCL, IOL), Coal (Coal India), Gas (IGL, Mahanagar gas) and Steel (Tata Steel, JSW) sector companies will get bullish impact.
Do you buy cheap fashion? Uranus in Taurus from May 2018, for years to come, says ‘Don’t be a dummy. People in poor countries make the cheap fashion.’ Heads are going to roll in any system which keeps our fellow human beings down. Manufacturing – if it is exploitative – could take a king hit. Why do we say ‘heads roll’ on a Uranus transit? Because Uranus was found in the same year that The French Revolution was seeded, and that’s 1781. Marie Antoinette (and her wardrobe) did not last long.
Thank you for sharing these predictions; this is very interesting to read. Do you think flight MH370 will ever be found or it’ll stay a mystery? I also notice society has become very shallow, self-centred and obsessed to become famous – talented or not. Do you think society will keep “praising” talentless celebrities? I can’t wait the day these self-centred people go back to the shadow but it seems that day will never happen. I was shocked when people took selfies in front of the terror attack at the Lindt Café in Sidney last month – I thought the 21st century would be spiritual, less materialistic. This is so sad – I don’t foresee a Golden Age: only a golden age for technology but not for humanity 🙁
Seventh, US and global equity markets are frothy. Price-to-earnings ratios in the US are 50% above the historic average, private-equity valuations have become excessive, and government bonds are too expensive, given their low yields and negative term premia. And high-yield credit is also becoming increasingly expensive now that the US corporate-leverage rate has reached historic highs.
Ben, you have many lifetimes of dealing with both wealth and poverty so you have reincarnated to use your knowledge gathered over many lifetimes. Essentially you have very fixed patterns around money, rent, mortgage, tax, business, shares, wealth, budget and so on. Even shopping. Taurus and Scorpio are fixed signs so they tend to dislike change, on the financial front, and get rather set in their ways. This will not go on. It actually can’t go on. And you will be liberated as a result. It may all seem very new and different – perhaps even rather dramatic – but by the time you get to 2019 you will see how ‘chained’ you were by some rather stuck attitudes towards money, property, taxation, business and the rest. You’re being offered a way to have a lot more space and room to move in your life, if you can just budge your position on your budget. It’s the ‘budge that budget’ cycle and it’s a smart idea to just go with it. Try not to hang on or look nostalgically back at 2017, 2016, 2015 when it comes. The future is rushing towards you.
I’m glad I saw the fingerprint for you – for a moment I thought it was because so much of Sherlock Holmes was written in this London house! Uranus at 3 Taurus, opposite Uranus at 3 Scorpio, seems likely to bring in your profession in identity and security systems. I am sure you are completely on top of changes in your field, but make it your business to be across everything, with more concentration and awareness than usual. This also applies very much to 2019 as Uranus will take a couple of years to cross 0, 1, 2, 3 Taurus. This is most certainly about your work, because you were born with Juno (commitments) at 3 Virgo in your Sixth House, which rules your job. Putting all that together, you need to go deeply into the new realities of online identity and security from the middle of May, which will be a tremendous shock for millions of us, right around the world. The story develops across 2019, and possibly into 2020, and I do think you’ll have to reshape your career as a result of it. Don’t be worried. Do be interested and informed. We will see Jupiter (expansion, growth, opportunity) slowly make trines to your Taurus and Virgo placements once he changes signs at the end of 2019, and I think 2020 could be your year professionally, but it would be as a result of what you learn – and what you do – in response to the whole new world of internet banking, and global taxation. Time to start reading those financial and business newspapers as never before. And tech. Watch Fakebook.
So, when will the stock market crash again? There is no way to accurately predict a bear market. The FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google) have led the bull market over the last 9 years. If these stocks fail to keep their earnings momentum going, investors may lose confidence in the market. So far only Facebook and Netflix have disappointed investors, while Apple remains as strong as ever.
La première étape est primordiale. Il s’agit d’évaluer votre situation personnelle pour définir votre profil d’investisseur. En théorie, plus vous êtes jeune, plus vous pouvez vous permettre d’être audacieux. Vos objectifs de vie ainsi que votre tolérance au risque jouent aussi un rôle important dans vos choix d’investissements. Voici les questions auxquelles vous devrez répondre pour établir votre profil:
The second biggest crash in global markets occurred in 2008. It was preceded by a housing market crash which led two Wall Street banks, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers declaring bankruptcy. By 2008 the world economy was so interconnected that the market crash led to a global financial crisis. Although it wasn’t the largest crash in percentage terms, it was the largest drop in terms of value in the history of the New York Stock Exchange.
Hi Craig, its always nice to come across someone who has a real talent for these things; my only concern is that it just seems like the world is going to hell in a hand basket… What are your thoughts on the development of a the human race over the coming centuries, do your abilities extend this far? if not, will we ever see more peaceful and prosperous times in the next coming years?? if you have already shared these thoughts before I apologise! Take Care
Other research has shown that psychological factors may result in exaggerated (statistically anomalous) stock price movements (contrary to EMH which assumes such behaviors 'cancel out'). Psychological research has demonstrated that people are predisposed to 'seeing' patterns, and often will perceive a pattern in what is, in fact, just noise, e.g. seeing familiar shapes in clouds or ink blots. In the present context this means that a succession of good news items about a company may lead investors to overreact positively, driving the price up. A period of good returns also boosts the investors' self-confidence, reducing their (psychological) risk threshold.
Oil price spikes have contributed to every recession since World War II by sapping consumer purchasing power, according to Moody’s. U.S. benchmark crude oil prices of about $65 a barrel are up from a low of about $26 in early 2016 and $59 early this year but well below the $112 reached in 2014. And average gasoline prices are just under $3 a gallon compared with more than $4 four years ago.
Market history suggests that increase in debt drives bubbles and when its government debt, the bubble is huge. Bull markets of 1720s, 1820s and 1920s led to historical market crashes. The Dot Com bubble burst in 2000-2001, and completely shut off many big companies while others suffered big losses that took years to recover. Market started recovering at the end of 2002 and then again the 2008 crash resulted in horrible financial crisis to the economy.