In May 2008, when crude oil had broken through $100 a barrel, Merriman astrologically predicted—on the record—that it would top out at $144 (give or take $8) before plummeting within two years. Then he said it would decline, somewhere between 77 percent and 93 percent.) Goldman Sachs Group Inc., by contrast, thought crude could hit $200 a barrel, and traditional energy economists at Deutsche Bank AG were stupefied by the confusing market dynamics. Sure enough, crude hit $147.27 on July 11, 2008 and slid to $32.48 five months later.
The economy had been growing for most of the Roaring Twenties. It was a technological golden age, as innovations such as the radio, automobile, aviation, telephone, and the power grid were deployed and adopted. Companies that had pioneered these advances, like Radio Corporation of America (RCA) and General Motors, saw their stocks soar. Financial corporations also did well, as Wall Street bankers floated mutual fund companies (then known as investment trusts) like the Goldman Sachs Trading Corporation. Investors were infatuated with the returns available in the stock market, especially by the use of leverage through margin debt.
This is a remarkable passage because it resembles closely what one would read in an opinion-based analysis of a market event. The confusing illusion, of course, is that hindsight narratives of this kind could offer anything towards avoiding, let alone preventing, future disasters. In reality, no amount of knowledge of a sandpile system can possibly produce a usable forecast of the size and location of a major avalanche. It may be the same with a stock market crash.
Markets traded at higher valuation at the beginning of this year. Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the benchmark BSE Sensex hovered around 26.40 times on January 29 against its 10-year P/E multiple of 19.40 times and five-year average of 19.90 times. The index was hovering at P/E of 23.50 on October 5 against a 10-year average P/E of 19.60, still indicating over-valuation.
I love reading these and often look again for any updates. The world seems to be lurching in to ever more chaos. I hope that things do improve with the war situation overall. We really do not want more war, what we need is peace, harmony and for all the third world countries to be stable and for those people to have the same opportunities as those in the western world. Then there will be peace.
The bigger they come, the harder they fall. Currently, we are in the terminal phase of an “everything bubble” which has had ten years to grow. It is the biggest financial bubble that our country has ever seen, and experts are warning that when it finally bursts we will experience an economic downturn that is even worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s. Of course many of us in the alternative media have been warning about what is coming for quite some time, but now even many in the mainstream media have jumped on the bandwagon. The Economist is one of the most prominent globalist mouthpieces in the entire world, and so I was stunned when I came across one of their articles earlier today that was entitled “Another economic downturn is just a matter of time”. When the alternative media and globalist media outlets are both preaching economic doom, that is a very clear sign that big trouble is imminent.
I predict that Bush the father will pass this year! A family member of mine is predicting that Jeb Bush will become president! Other sources are predicting that Hillary Clinton will become president but not too soon after she would be kill, putting a male as president soon after, cannot figure out how or if it is possible that Jeb Bush be then president.
Last year I predicted a ‘world flu epidemic’ toward the end of 2017 or the start of 2018. I feel this could still happen. (10/10 Correct: “‘worst killer flu’ in 50 years” – Headline: The Sun 5th Jan 2018.) There may be a link to biological warfare seeded in multiple countries by North Korea working with a terrorist group. (Happening? “Reports Pyongyang is testing biological weapons for use on ballistic missiles.” Sky Television 27th Dec 2017 – these predictions were posted in October 2017)
And because memes can have different lifespans on different platforms, they never really die, which is important to consider if you’re in the market to sell. “Memes have a tendency to resurge,” Wink says. “You’ll have a meme gain popularity, die out in a month, and then a year later suddenly it’s very popular again. Kermit has had three iterations that have died and then come back.”
The CAPE ratio (also known as Shiller P/E ratio) is a long term cyclically adjusted measure of equity valuations devised by the respected economist Robert Shiller. The CAPE ratio has been at historically high level for several years, although high valuations alone do not mean a crash is imminent. Whether US stock prices today are in a stock bubble or not is debatable. In general, bubbles do not necessarily imply a crash, unless there is a catalyst.
Although there were a lot of clear signs that Josefina Vazquez Mota was going to wing the Mexican 2012 presidential elections, Enrique Pena Nieto, won in the most mysterious and unexpected ways. Under his 2 year presidency, there were 43 students shot to death by the order of a Drug Lord who was also mayor of a town Guerrero and it became a national pressure point or “the drop that spilled the water” when it comes to exposing the unexisting thing line of drug lords and State leaders. Some of Mexico’s long time sleeping volcanoes have shown recently some abnormal activity. The world’s and Mexico’s most wanted drug lord was caught out of thin air. What is all this scrambling into?
Early this year, Congress raised budget spending caps by about $300 billion, with most of that devoted to higher defense spending, but that deal expires in late 2019. And the nation’s debt limit must be raised in early 2019. Both issues set up dramatic showdowns in Congress, especially if the midterm elections this year result in a more even split between Democrats and Republicans.
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Thanks to the Fed’s ZIRP, public pension funds cannot get safe 5% returns as they did in the past. Thus, public pension funds are being lured into investing in the stock market by the big financial firms. The stock market may very well crash soon, which means that millions of retired people are going to see their benefits being cut in the coming years.
The current bull market is now in its 10th year. We have no idea when it might end and give way to a bear market. However, it’s inevitable that at some point it will. Twice during 2018 we have already seen a spike in market volatility. This inevitably leads to fears of a market crash. The truth is that a stock market crash can never really be predicted. People who predicted crashes in the past are the same people who predicted crashes in the years they didn’t happen.
But here’s the thing about AFund: The A stands for “Astrologers.” It’s run by an antic, charming 70-year-old named Henry Weingarten who says he gleans insight from charting the movements of celestial bodies. Today’s event isn’t technically about astrology, but like everything in the universe, it probably is. “Sixty to 70 percent of what I do is in the natural resource space,” Weingarten tells me after lunch at the club, holding a glass of red wine. “I think it’s because I’m a Leo. And effectively, as a Leo, I have an affinity for gold.”
Évidemment, les conseillers financiers jouent sur la peur pour éviter de nous perdre comme client. Aussi, dans la culture populaire on dit « jouer à la bourse », comme s’il s’agissait de « gambling ». En fait, ce n’est pas de la science nucléaire! Comme vous dites, la procédure est plus simple que plusieurs applications/jeux que les gens utilisent déjà. Il suffit de se renseigner et expérimenter graduellement.
President Trump has slapped 25% tariffs on steel and 10% on aluminum to combat what the administration has called the dumping of low-priced metals from other countries in the U.S. below market prices. That’s expected to raise prices for consumers and businesses and draw retaliation from other nations against U.S. exports. Even so, the impact on the economy likely will be negligible, economist Kathy Bostjancic of Oxford Economics says.
The resultant rise of mass unemployment is seen as a result of the crash, although the crash is by no means the sole event that contributed to the depression. The Wall Street Crash is usually seen as having the greatest impact on the events that followed and therefore is widely regarded as signaling the downward economic slide that initiated the Great Depression. True or not, the consequences were dire for almost everybody. Most academic experts agree on one aspect of the crash: It wiped out billions of dollars of wealth in one day, and this immediately depressed consumer buying.
Supreme, Thanksgiving, and Supreme Court: Happy hanksqwing WISHING YOU A - President Donald J. Trump HAPPY THANKSGIVING, your Country is starting to do really well Jobs coming back, highest Stock Market EVER, Military getting really strong, we will build the WALL, V.A. taking care of our Vets, great Supreme Court Justice, RECORD CUT IN REGS, lowest unemployment in 17 years....!
Set forth below is a Guest Blog Entry by Larry Weber, a new community member. I've taken the words from a post that Larry put last night to an earlier thread. Rob, I think we have found some common ground. There was absolutely no “main street/stream” investment type that agreed with my decision back in late 2006 when I opted out of the market (to be precise 92 percent out of the market). They thought I was crazy for leaving the market based on conventional investment wisdom at the…
J’aimerais avoir si c’est possible d’avoir vôtre opinion sur les gestionnaires de porte-feuille privé Québécois comme Cote 100, Giverny Capital, Fond Barrage (40% de rendement en 2016 je crois), groupe Médici, etc.. Effectivement, depuis 2008, ces gestionnaires vont battre régulièrement les indices (rendement moyen de 12% depuis 2008) et certains ont des frais de gestion de 1% et demande un minimum de $50K comme montant de départ. Merci à l’avance.
I've posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Consumerism Commentary site titled Are Stock Gains and Losses Real? Juicy Excerpt: Losses suffered starting from super-high prices are never recovered. When you pay more than a fair price for stocks, a portion of your money is going to the purchase of stocks and a portion is going to the purchase of cotton-candy nothingness. Prices always return to fair value. So these price drops are not so much losses as they are the market coming to recognize phony…
All figures below are for the Tesco's financial years, which run for 52- or 53-week periods to late February. Up to 27 February 2007 period end the numbers include non-UK and Ireland results for the year ended on 31 December 2006 in the accounting year. The figures in the table below include 52 weeks/12 months of turnover for both sides of the business as this provides the best comparative.
The Investor’s Scenario SurferI have run this calculator hundreds of time. it is in my assessment the most powerful tool for learning how stock investing works available today. You have the option of choosing a new stock allocation in each year of a realistic 30-year sequence of returns. You can compare your results with what you would have achieved with a Buy-and-Hold strategy. You will find that Valuation-Informed Indexing strategies yield larger portfolios in 90 percent of your tests of the concept. What matters is what happens in the long term! This tool tells you what strategies give the best results in the long term.
By the way, our own Dr Doom, Professor Steve Keen, was also hailed as a good predictor of the GFC. Then at the University of Western Sydney, Keen received more than twice as many votes as his nearest rival and was judged the economist who first and most cogently warned the world of the coming Global Financial Collapse. He (and 2nd and 3rd place finishers, Nouriel Roubini (New York University) and Dean Baker (Centre for Economic and Policy Research), won the inaugural Revere Award for Economics, named in honour of Paul Revere and his famous ride through the night to warn Americans of the approaching British army.
One disconcerting aspect is that large avalanches, epic earthquakes or giant forest fires do not seem to be very special: They appear to be just less frequent, scaled-up versions of small ones. If this is true, then a stock market crash may not be special at all, but merely a larger-than-usual down day, and just as unpredictable. This would present a big challenge to traditional investment methods.
We had a combination of 42 and 7 year financial panic cycles that last came due in 2014 that I wrote about in my book “The Prosperity Clock”. I was very concerned then that that time frame would produce a major bear market and Depression. But all it produced was the relatively minor 2015–2016 bear market. But that being said, we are still within the margin of error of that long term cycle combination still kicking in. Normally I only like to give it two years, but given the way the US market is trading currently, I would be watching the market very closely in the late Summer and early Fall of this year.