I've posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance blog. It's called What's the Best Age at Which to Experience a Stock Crash? Juicy Excerpt: For young investors who have established themselves in good careers before a crash hits, the crash can actually be a big plus. Stock valuations always go to one-half of fair value before the bear market comes to an end. When stocks are priced at one-half fair value, the most likely annualized 10-year return is 15 percent real.…
I've posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Planting Money Seeds blog. It's called My Crush on Kathy and What It Means re Your Section 401(k) Account. Juicy Excerpt: I didn’t hear the words at the time. I have this amazing filter thing in my brain that doesn’t let in words that cut like a knife. I heard the words well enough to recall them to mind today, when they make me laugh. But for so long as those words caused more pain than I could handle — No words! It’s like a magic…
"In turbulent times for financial markets, more books than usual are published on such subjects as financial crashes. This book is different. First, it is written by an internationally recognized expert in non-linear, complex systems. Second, it promotes some new ideas in both finance and science. In addition, it offers the general reader an insight into finance, both practical and academic, as well as some of the issues at the cutting edge of science. What more could one ask for?"--Neil F. Johnson, Department of Physics and Oxford Center for Computational Finance, Oxford University
I will be writing a monthly column on the dangers of Buy-and-Hold and on our need to move on as a society to promotion of the Valuation-Informed Indexing model at the Balance Junkie site. My first entry there is called The Gene Mauch Rule for Investing Success. Juicy Excerpt: Bull markets are the stock market’s equivalent to baseball winning streaks. During bull markets, the temptation is to get overly excited about stocks, to count the phony and temporary bull market gains as permanent.…
According to one interpretation of the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH), only changes in fundamental factors, such as the outlook for margins, profits or dividends, ought to affect share prices beyond the short term, where random 'noise' in the system may prevail. The 'hard' efficient-market hypothesis does not explain the cause of events such as the crash in 1987, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 22.6 percent—the largest-ever one-day fall in the United States.
I just checked my sister’s chart and noticed that she has Mars in Taurus at 3 degrees. Her Birthday is Oct 20th, 1973 (Repalle, India) 1:20 PM IST. How is this going to effect her? She works in a Bank(!!) and has a 10 year old daughter(April 24th, 2008 Taurus). Her husband is an Aries who lost his job a month back. Since, I saw Taurus in 4th house, I am worried (hope it has got nothing to do with health of any family members). Appreciate any input, if you have time, please.
Miranda Marquit recently posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Investor Junkie blog called How to Invest Using Valuation-Informed Indexing: Interview with Rob Bennett. Juicy Excerpt: Rob Bennett has been advocating valuation informed indexing for years, and his insistence on it has even had him kicked off investing forums, including the Bogleheads forum. “Buy and hold is intellectually dead,” he says. “It’s not practically dead, since plenty of investors still use the theory, but…
Many of the video courses on this platform charge an enrollment fee, but there is a small collection of free options, including Fundamentals of Investing, taught by a chartered financial analyst, and Basic Investing Concepts, led by a certified financial planner. Both courses offer over an hour of content that will help novice investors get off the ground.
Tangerine (Banque Scotia) offre des fonds d’investissement semblables à ceux vendus par votre conseiller financier, certes avec des frais de gestion généralement moins élevés (1.07%). Ces fonds sont conçus pour suivre le rendement des grands indices boursiers, alors vous ne gaspillez pas votre énergie à essayer de « battre le marché » en vain. En gardant une perspective à long terme, vous pouvez espérer récolter de bons rendements. De plus, Tangerine permet la cotisation automatisée. Ainsi, vous pouvez allouer un budget mensuel et laisser vos placements croître avec le minimum d’implication de votre part.
Dans un rapport publié le 1er octobre 2010, la SEC indiqua, sans la nommer, qu'une firme était à l'origine d'un ordre de vente, via un système de trading haute fréquence, de 75 000 contrats futures E-Mini S&P 500, déclencheur du Flash Crash. Seul le hedge fund Waddell & Reed correspondait à la description faite dans le rapport. La firme Waddell & Reed reconnaissait être impliquée dans cet incident, comme 250 autres sociétés. Quelques jours après le crash, les rumeurs désignaient déjà Waddell & Reed ; il s'agit d'une société d'asset management ayant ses locaux à Overland Park dans le Kansas.
I wrote a Guest Blog Entry re the new Returns-Sequence Reality Checker calculator that appears today at the Consumerism Commentary blog. It's called The Good Side of Stocks' Lost Decade. Juicy Excerpt: The reason why I call the calculator “The Reality Checker” is that it throws doubt on one of our most fundamental beliefs about stock investing — that positive returns are good and that negative returns are bad. It’s not hard to understand why most of us think that. If your stock…
Now, me…. I’m doing meditation, clearing debts, and planning to just see what happens and not much options due to illness but in any case – I’ve got Jupiter Taurus natal at 20 and Scorpio sun at 24. I just don’t dare hope but thought I’d ask what you think? I’m zen about life so don’t sugarcoat, if you have time and I’m not too late to this. Wishing you the best! Thanks Jessica
Why do I say that Putin is the Antichrist of Book of Revelation chapter 13? There are many reasons why I am sure that Putin is the evil one who will bring about World War 3, that I discuss on the pages on Putin and Russia. The biggest reason is that when Putin first rose to power there was an unusual Astrology pattern that also relates to a Nostradamus prophecy about the Antichrist. Let us consider the Grand Cross Astrology pattern of August 1999. On August 18, 1999, there was an unusual alignment of planets in a Grand Cross shape, possibly the most unusual Astrological alignment seen in the last two thousand years. And one week before, on August 11, 1999, there was a solar eclipse seen over Europe. The Grand Cross, which is one of the most amazing astrological alignments ever seen in history, consisted of: the Sun, Venus, and Mercury in the sign of Leo, Mars and the Moon in Scorpio with Pluto close by in Sagittarius, Saturn and Jupiter in Taurus, and Neptune and Uranus in Aquarius. The cross is a bent cross, relating it to the Antichrist, as the true cross relates to Christ.
Set forth below are eight Guest Blog Entries I have written dealing with the Valuation-Informed Indexing investment strategy or that others have written commenting on it. 1) The Risks of Buy-and-Hold Investing, at the Pop Economics blog. 2) Valuation-Informed Indexing Is Risk-Diminished Investing, submitted to Pop Economics but ultimately posted at A Rich Life. 3) When Stock Prices Crash, Where Does the Money Go?, at the Budgets Are Sexy blog. 4) Stock Market Strategy: Timing Based…
George, the blogger at the Investing Online AI blog, has written a post advocating the use of P/E10 to know when it is dangerous to own stocks. George learned about Valuation-Informed Indexing from a Guest Blog Entry that I wrote at another site and we had a long telephone conversation the other night in which we discussed the wonders of the P/E10 stock valuation metric. His blog entry is titled P/E10 -- A Tool for Investing. Juicy Excerpt: If there were a way to know if the market was…
Academic Researcher Silenced by Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing StrategiesMy aim is to get this story reported on the front page of the New York Times. On the day that happens, all the nastiness will stop. We will all be working together to bring the economic crisis to an end and to enter the greatest period of economic growth in our history.
The content on this site is provided as general information only. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the author(s). The author may or may not have a financial interest in any company or advertiser referenced. Any action taken as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately the responsibility of the reader.
You are right to believe about a flu out break. Both A and B strains hit in the US back to back and many died. I have 17 years experience in medical lab work. In 1997 I had a gifted patient tell me before any end of the world scenarios happen the first big thing that will happen will be “A plague”. Everything else she told me has come to pass except this last prediction. Perhaps this event is close at hand, yes agree could be man made.
Or it may not be. Think about it. Doomsayers have pointed to any number of reasons in recent years why they believed the market was headed for a downturn: Standard & Poor's downgrading of U.S. Treasury debt in 2011; the growth-slowdown scare in China that sent stock prices down 12% in the summer of 2015; Brexit and the election of Donald Trump, both of which were supposed to be catalysts for a market rout. But none of these warnings panned out.
I just wonder if the revolutions in countries in the Middle East could bring them closer to Russia and Putin the Antichrist. Perhaps this will lead to the Middle East War described in Ezekiel and also Revelation 16 as Armageddon, that it could be an alliance of Middle East and North Africa countries that will form a military alliance with Russia led by the Antichrist Putin. What Middle Eastern countries will next see revolution? Where will these revolutions lead? It could work out well, with peaceful democracies in these countries. On the other hand, the French Revolution resulted in a bloodbath in France, and a monstrous dictator Napoleon who resulted in war across Europe. And the Russian Revolution resulted in the Soviet Union, and millions murdered by Stalin. So revolutions can work out well like the American Revolution did, but sometimes they don't. War in the Middle East could result from these changes, the Second Horseman of the Apocalypse War riding in 2018-2019. And if political unrest comes to Pakistan, with all its nuclear weapons, that could be a major concern. Also watch out for: North Korea attacking South Korea, or war in the Middle East.
Over the next year, "equities will probably continue to go up as we have all these stock buybacks and free cash flow," Minerd told CNBC. But "ultimately, when the chickens come home to roost and we have a recession, we're going to see a lot of pressure on equities especially as defaults rise, and I think once we reach a peak that we'll probably see a 40% retracement in equities."
Ce que vous espérez de vos investissements a bien sûr une incidence dans votre prise de risque. À titre d’exemple, si vous voulez réduire votre horaire de travail, il vous faudra miser sur des placements sûrs qui vous offrent un rendement plus modeste, mais régulier (ex : dividendes). Donc, le niveau de risque sera plus modéré. Or, si vous êtes jeune et que vous voulez vous bâtir un « fond de liberté », vous pouvez vous permettre de viser la croissance rapide en assumant plus de risques.
Donald Trump, Memes, and Recess: A Short History Lesson 1928 Republicans take control of the Presidency, the House and the Senate. Followed shortly by the Great Depression, massive unemployment and a Stock Market crash. 2000 Republicans take control of the Presidency, the House and the Senate. Followed shortly by two recessions including the Great Recession, massive unemployment and a Stock Market crash. 2016 Republicans take control of the Presidency, the House and the Senate. Anyone want to guess what happens next? Real Truth Now Herbert Hoover was a Businessman. Donald Trump is a "Businessman."
This is a remarkable passage because it resembles closely what one would read in an opinion-based analysis of a market event. The confusing illusion, of course, is that hindsight narratives of this kind could offer anything towards avoiding, let alone preventing, future disasters. In reality, no amount of knowledge of a sandpile system can possibly produce a usable forecast of the size and location of a major avalanche. It may be the same with a stock market crash.
Wall Street Journal Calls Buy-and-Hold a “Myth,” Endorses Valuation-Informed IndexingLot of smart people know that Buy-and-Hold is a big pile of smelly garbage. They are afraid to speak out today because they know what will happen to them if they do. But they try to position themselves for the post-next-crash period, when “Buy-and-Hold” will be an obscene phrase. Bret Arends tells us that the Wall Street Con Men “are leaving out half the story.” Precisely so. The purpose of this web site is to let you in on the half of the story that the Wall Street Con Men have been keeping from you for 32 years now.
Behaviorists argue that investors often behave irrationally when making investment decisions thereby incorrectly pricing securities, which causes market inefficiencies, which, in turn, are opportunities to make money. However, the whole notion of EMH is that these non-rational reactions to information cancel out, leaving the prices of stocks rationally determined.
There is ongoing debate among economists and historians as to what role the crash played in subsequent economic, social, and political events. The Economist argued in a 1998 article that the Depression did not start with the stock market crash, nor was it clear at the time of the crash that a depression was starting. They asked, "Can a very serious Stock Exchange collapse produce a serious setback to industry when industrial production is for the most part in a healthy and balanced condition?" They argued that there must be some setback, but there was not yet sufficient evidence to prove that it would be long or would necessarily produce a general industrial depression.
In the United Kingdom Tesco offers financial services through Tesco Bank, formerly a 50:50 joint venture with The Royal Bank of Scotland. Products on offer include credit cards, loans, mortgages, savings accounts and several types of insurance, including car, home, life and travel. They are promoted by leaflets in Tesco's shops and through its website. The business made a profit of £130 million for the 52 weeks to 24 February 2007, of which Tesco's share was £66 million. This move towards the financial sector diversified the Tesco brand and provides opportunities for growth outside of the retailing sector. On 28 July 2008, Tesco announced that they would buy out the Royal Bank of Scotland's 50% stake in the company for £950 million.
A little more than a week later, stocks sank after a tweet from the president challenged the idea that Russia’s missile defense system could shoot down American smart bombs. Investors clearly worry that Trump’s tweeted rhetoric could be taken the wrong way by one or more global leaders, leading to escalation, or even conflict. Should that happen, the stock market could tank.
Welcome to the July 2012 Carnival of Passive Investing, a monthly collection of the best and most intelligent Passive Investing strategy articles around the internet. Some people foolishly want to beat the market (want being the key word) but we just want to invest with it. The purpose of the carnival is two-fold: To provide a forum to showcase articles and research in passive investing strategies (i.e. investing in ETFs, index mutual funds, etc. in such a way that one avoids…
Buy-and-Hold Caused the Economic CrisisThe first step to curing an illness is coming up with a correct diagnosis. What we have been hearing thus far about what caused the economic crisis is Democrats yelling at Republicans and Republicans yelling at Democrats. This political attack-game gibberish will not cut it. We borrowed huge amounts of money from our future selves to finance the insane bull of the late 1990s. Now we are our future selves! Now we are paying the price! It hurts to know we caused this. Buy you know what? We never have to suffer through something like this again once we acknowledge the realities.
Last time I spoke about right-wing riots in Germany. This too has happened and will continue to get worse through 2018. There will continue to be a cultural division within Germany and France and they will see worsening racial troubles and riots ahead. (CORRECT 10/10 Riots in Germany see 27th August “Guardian protests in the eastern city of Chemnitz” )
We hear very little about Australia, yet the economy is in trouble, Immigration is a huge issue, but of most concern is the head in the sand attitude to climate change. Opening up more coal mines, that kill the reef, and farm land , massive bush fires and cyclones. Where do you see Australia heading and is there any hope of a turn a round ? Thank you for your insight.
“There’s no question when you look at last week, some of the selling is the result of programmatic selling because as volatility goes up, some of these algorithms force people to sell,” Solomon told CNBC’s Wilfred Frost. “Market structure can, at times, contribute to volatility and one of the things that we’re spending a bunch of time thinking about at the firm is how changes in market structure over the course of the last 10 years will affect market activity.”
I don’t even know how many records I own, but it’s in the thousands. I have records, tapes, CDs, and computer files going all the way back to the 1880s. I even have one recording from 1869. A scientist was studying sound waves and recorded a woman singing “Clare De Lune.” He recorded it as wavy lines on a soot-covered paper. Someone recently scanned it and converted it back into sound. It doesn’t sound very good, but it’s amazing that you could retrieve sound from marks on a sooty piece of paper.
To illustrate this we have included the TED spread which is a good stress indicator for credit and currency markets. That’s where turmoil always starts before it trickles down to other parts of global markets like for instance stock markets. It is “the difference between the interest rates on interbank loans and on short-term U.S. government debt.” TED is an acronym formed from T-Bill and ED, the ticker symbol for the Eurodollar futures contract. It incorporates both interest rates and currency stress. But as seen on below up-to-date chart there is no stress whatsoever.
Venus will enter Libra sign on the first day of the month and thereby conjoin with Jupiter. The Stock market will turn Bearish, after showing Bullish sentiments. Smart traders will book profits in gainful positions. Mercury will enter Leo sign on the second day of the month and thereby conjoin with Sun. These two planets will be under the aspect of Mars. Bulls will show interest in the stocks of Banks, Insurance, FMCG, Bearings, Capital goods sector companies. Sun will enter Virgo sign on 17th. Mercury will conjoin Sun on 18th. These two planets will be under the aspect of Saturn. Stock market may see short term Bullish trend till 22nd. Value investors should make good use of low rates of Blue chip companies.
Stock market crashes are usually caused by more than one factor. In fact, there are often two sets of reasons for a crash. One set of conditions creates the environment for the sell-off, and another set of factors triggers the beginning of the sell-off. Just because there is a market bubble, it doesn’t mean the market will crash. Usually something needs to occur to cause investors to begin selling and buyers to step away from the stock market.
The key there is the huge gap between rich and poor you mention. This is a global problem. Capricorn is about the mountain goat who climbs to the top. It’s a symbol for the wealthiest 1% who have made it to the top of capitalism. People who make it, in a system, often tend to be strongly Capricorn. The Trump administration has a high number of Sun Capricorn men at the top. As Saturn, Pluto – and then Ceres and Jupiter – go through Capricorn to 2020, that is the end of the old, and the birth of the new. At the same time, the revolution of Uranus in Taurus (money) is here. If I can find a reliable chart for Hong Kong I’ll dig it up for you. But it sounds to me as if you’re on the money.
In the 1929 stock market crash Pluto was exactly conjuncting the Dow’s 12th house of loss. This sensitive point will be hit by Mars in late December of this year. That alone won’t do it as Mars is a personal planet, but Saturn will be making an applying square at this time and Mars will set it off. Pluto will also be moving from the 12th over the 1st house. This will be a major death and rebirth of the market — MAJOR CHANGES. Venus will be making a trine to Neptune at the time (those who trust their intuition will do OK) but it will also be inconjuncting (the Dow’s ruler) Saturn, and Mars (the two malifics). Inconjunctions cause loss or separation (like from your money) and of course Neptune rules loss.
It's the "experts" who got us into our current economic mess. It's does not make too much sense to think that it's going to be the "experts" who are going to get us out. We need new ideas. New ideas come from new places. That's why my first choice of a partner for my initiative on getting the word out to middle-class investors about what we have learned about the realities of stock investing over the past seven years was the author of the Frugal Dad blog. Frugal Dad is a smart fellow, a…
Jump up ^ The concept of the bourse (or the exchange) was 'invented' in the medieval Low Countries (most notably in predominantly Dutch-speaking cities like Bruges and Antwerp) before the birth of formal stock exchanges in the 17th century. Until the early 1600s, a bourse was not exactly a stock exchange in its modern sense. With the founding of the Dutch East India Company (VOC) in 1602 and the rise of Dutch capital markets in the early 17th century, the 'old' bourse (a place to trade commodities, government and municipal bonds) found a new purpose – a formal exchange that specialize in creating and sustaining secondary markets in the securities (such as bonds and shares of stock) issued by corporations – or a stock exchange as we know it today.
Memes, Recess, and Depression: A Short History Lesson 1928 Republicans take control of the Presidency, the House and the Senate. Followed shortly by the Great Depression, massive unemployment and a Stock Market crash. 2000 Republicans take control of the Presidency, the House and the Senate. Followed shortly by two recessions including the Great Recession, massive unemployment and a Stock Market crash. 2016 Republicans take control of the Presidency, the House and the Senate. Anyone want to guess what happens next? Real Truth Vow That's promising... H/t Real Truth Now
A stock market, equity market or share market is the aggregation of buyers and sellers (a loose network of economic transactions, not a physical facility or discrete entity) of stocks (also called shares), which represent ownership claims on businesses; these may include securities listed on a public stock exchange, as well as stock that is only traded privately. Examples of the latter include shares of private companies which are sold to investors through equity crowdfunding platforms. Stock exchanges list shares of common equity as well as other security types, e.g. corporate bonds and convertible bonds.
As such, conventional logic in economics is that you can expect a stock market crash and/or recession every seven to ten years, give or take (economics is as much of an art as it is a science). The actual timing of the crash, beyond those general guidelines, is next to impossible. If it was even remotely conceivable, I would be on the Forbes 400 list by now!
This brings us to finance. Most investors have no idea what tools fund managers use to choose stocks and bonds. (Tell me the time, don’t build me a clock!) Much of the business of Wall Street is based on methodologies as obscure to the uninitiated as a natal chart. It was only a matter of time until these two industries joined forces. Weingarten’s 1996 book Investing by the Stars traces financial astrology back to the Babylonians. A couple thousand years later, it’s claimed, celebrity astrologer Evangeline Adams advised John Pierpont Morgan.
These five tech and consumer service giants have accounted for a significant portion of the S&P 500’s and Invesco QQQ Trust’s gains in recent years. Further, data from Bloomberg finds that the original FANG stocks (minus Apple) are slated to grow sales at an average rate of 36% in the second quarter, which is four times faster than the average S&P 500 company. However, the FAANG stocks aren’t impervious to a change of heart.