Set forth below are links to eight Guest Blog Entries that I have written on the Valuation-Informed Indexing investing strategy or that others have written commenting on it (actually one is about the Passion Saving strategy of money management -- how did that one get mixed in?!). 1) Stock Volatility Kills, at the Moolanomy blog. 2) Why Long-Term Timing Works Even Though Short-Term Timing Doesn't, at the Money and Such blog. 3) We're All Better Off as a Result of the Stock Crash, at the…
Gr. 7-12. A Wall Street Journal bureau chief, Blumenthal combines a fascinating overview of the infamous stock market crash in 1929 with a rare and useful primer of financial basics. The chapters follow the six days surrounding the crash, but Blumenthal deftly places the events in context with vivid accounts of the stock-market fever that preceded the crash, often showing the impact of abstract issues through individual stories--the losses of Groucho Marx and of General Motors' founder William Durant are particularly astonishing. Rapid, simply constructed sentences increase the drama and suspense while making difficult concepts easily understood. Throughout, fact boxes define financial vocabulary--stocks, bonds, bulls and bears, margins, the measure of a company's worth, and more--in clear language that is both compelling and instructive. Archival images--photos, cartoons, and reproduced documents--enhance the text, as do frequent excerpts from newspapers and political quotes from the era. Students using this for research may be frustrated by the source citations, which appear as an appended, generalized chapter-by-chapter listing of materials consulted rather than as specific notes that correspond to text passages. But this still offers a riveting history, along with the basic terminology needed to grasp the events and to draw parallels between the volatile, sometimes corrupt, market of 1929 and the market today. Gillian Engberg
Stock market crashes are usually caused by more than one factor. In fact, there are often two sets of reasons for a crash. One set of conditions creates the environment for the sell-off, and another set of factors triggers the beginning of the sell-off. Just because there is a market bubble, it doesn’t mean the market will crash. Usually something needs to occur to cause investors to begin selling and buyers to step away from the stock market.
I've posted a Guest Blog Entry at the Invest It Wisely site titled Stocks Are Far More Risky When Valuations Are High. Juicy Excerpt: My interpretation of these numbers is that stocks are a less risky asset class than most believe. So long as you limit yourself to buying stocks only at moderate or better prices and commit to a 10-year holding period, you are virtually guaranteed to at least break even. That’s a very good deal, given the upside potential that applies when stocks are…
On Black Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 38.33 points to 260, a drop of 12.8%. The deluge of selling overwhelmed the ticker tape system that normally gave investors the current prices of their shares. Telephone lines and telegraphs were clogged and were unable to cope. This information vacuum only led to more fear and panic. The technology of the New Era, previously much celebrated by investors, now served to deepen their suffering.
Tobias Preis and his colleagues Helen Susannah Moat and H. Eugene Stanley introduced a method to identify online precursors for stock market moves, using trading strategies based on search volume data provided by Google Trends. Their analysis of Google search volume for 98 terms of varying financial relevance suggests that increases in search volume for financially relevant search terms tend to precede large losses in financial markets.
Vashistha is among the latest in a long string of high-profile prognosticators to work in the financial world: Though the practice has ancient roots, it truly took off during the scientific revolution and has guided certain fiscal luminaries ever since. W.D. Gann, a financial astrologer born in Texas in 1875, became a legendary trader; even J.P. Morgan and Charles Schwab consulted astrologers, notably Evangeline Adams, throughout the early 20th century. "Millionaires don't need astrology—billionaires do," Morgan supposedly quipped.
Memes, News, and Supreme: FOX NEWS Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump HAPPY THANKSGIVING, your Country is starting to do really well. Jobs coming back, highest Stock Market EVER, Military getting really strong, we will build the WALL, V.A. taking care of our Vets, great Supreme Court Justice, RECORD CUT IN REGS, lowest unemployment in 17 years. AP Photo/Evan Moments ago, President DonaldTrump sent out his first “Happy Thanksgiving” tweet as commander-in-chief.
A stock is an ownership interest in a business. Publicly traded companies raise cash by going to the primary market, where shares are first sold to investors in an “initial public offering,” or IPO. What most of us consider the stock market is actually the secondary market. This is where previously issued shares are traded among market participants. Trading venues include the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations System (NASDAQ) among others. Bidding among buyers and sellers sets prices.
What could change the mood? An unexpected bank failure might. Or a spike in the price of oil. Or butterfly wings. Lots of things conceivably could, and a dramatic drop in stock prices is certainly among them. For a drop to have that effect, however, would require some extenuating circumstances. A folk-wisdom sense that the economy was “due” for a downturn might contribute. Or another random piece of bad news. But critical to a broader shift in mood would be the notion, lingering across markets and the public as a whole, that the government or the central bank might not quite be prepared to swing into mood-elevating activity. It’s like a trust exercise: you might lean a bit just to see if a friend is prepared to catch you, but not so much that you cannot recover, then a bit more, then maybe you start to worry that actually the friend seems frankly lackadaisical in his reaction, and then oof, over you go.
In a less extreme market—for example, one where the Warren Buffett Indicator is around 100 or less—the risks are easier to identify, count, and classify. But in a situation where this indicator is approaching 140%, it’s clear that we’re long past the realm of logic. The markets are ignoring all risks while the Dow keeps climbing. Yet, there is one major risk at the macro level that could slam open the doors for a crash.
As I have said on another comment, I tend to make my predictions in blocks when I can sit and deeply meditate for a day. So rather than react and change opinions I am trying to simply give what I get with a long lead in about things that are not currently in the news. For me these predictions are simply an experiment. I’ll probably post some new predictions in another 6 months time.
A little more than a week later, stocks sank after a tweet from the president challenged the idea that Russia’s missile defense system could shoot down American smart bombs. Investors clearly worry that Trump’s tweeted rhetoric could be taken the wrong way by one or more global leaders, leading to escalation, or even conflict. Should that happen, the stock market could tank.
The financial crisis ripped through Wall Street 10 years ago, pushing the global economy to the edge of the abyss. One might think those searing experiences would have created a learning opportunity — for managing risk better, understanding structural imbalances in the financial markets, even learning a bit about how our own cognitive processes malfunction.
Set forth below is a Guest Blog Entry by Larry Weber, a new community member. I've taken the words from a post that Larry put last night to an earlier thread. Rob, I think we have found some common ground. There was absolutely no “main street/stream” investment type that agreed with my decision back in late 2006 when I opted out of the market (to be precise 92 percent out of the market). They thought I was crazy for leaving the market based on conventional investment wisdom at the…
You might be wondering if we’ve endured one too many ghost apparitions. To suggest that no less than Warren Buffett, whose net worth is north of $80.0 billion, expects the market to reverse its bullish course seems not just scary, it seems silly. But Warren Buffett’s predictions for 2018 call for at least a market correction—if not an outright crash.
“When I first met Henry, I thought, ‘What the hell,’ ” Husband says, evenly. Over time he learned to trust Weingarten’s advice and stop asking questions. “So if he uses—Henry, forgive me, because I don’t follow it—if he uses Jupiter and Mars to say that the next three-month trend for gold is going to be good, and if it coincides with something that I’m thinking, then OK.” To Husband, Weingarten’s appeal is obvious: “He uses astrology to separate himself from the other guys.”
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The P/E ratio of the S&P-500 is over 25, something that has only happened three times in history, once during the 1890s, once somewhat before 2000, and once somewhat after 2000. Can’t recall what the big crises was in the 1890s, but in 2001 or so the NASDAQ collapsed, losing about 75% of its value. It has only recently, in unadjusted dollars, surpassed its pre-crash highs.